IDP Nation: Synopsis of the IDP Sophomore
One of the hottest topics every offseason in the fantasy football world is the incoming rookie class. It’s a classic example of the “shiny new toy” syndrome. The unknown creates intrigue and excitement, so much so that we become fixated on what is new and ignore or devalue what we already have. In the IDP world, I have noticed significant trends regarding second-year players that can be used to your advantage when the glossy finish begins to fade and players become last year’s news.
Rookies that Succeed are Anointed as Kings
When a first-year player explodes onto the scene and produces immediately, there is great reason to be excited. As theories go, that player should only improve in the future and become a staple for your fantasy football defense. But many owners value these players as IDP centerpieces before it’s deserved. Throughout the years, I’ve noticed that successful rookies become extremely overvalued by the time their first full NFL offseason hits. Instead of these players being viewed as young and promising with the potential to one day lead an IDP team to victory, they are already valued as if that is the only possible outcome. Not only could these players still flame out in the NFL, but they also could have already reached their IDP ceiling instead of established their floor. Savvy owners can use this infatuation to their advantage by fading/trading these sophomores that are being drafted/valued at their likely ceilings, and instead pursuing veterans who’ve already shown that they are IDP stalwarts.
I couldn’t ask for better examples of this overvaluation trend than linebackers Eric Kendricks and Kwon Alexander. Kendricks is being highly overvalued given he is being drafted as a top-12 LB in both redraft and Dynasty formats. Kendricks looks to be the real deal for the Vikings on the field, but his IDP output will likely never come close to these gaudy expectations. Minnesota did not ease the rookie in, they made Kendricks a full-time player by Week 6 and never looked back. The issue is, Kendricks was a solid-but-unspectacular top-30 LB in this period and not much should change. The Vikings’ defense is loaded with talent, which limits Kendricks’ tackle opportunities and upside. The smart move is to pass on sophomore Kendricks and take teammate Anthony Barr, who will put up similar stats but has already proven himself a top-tier NFL player. Barr goes off the board about 10-15 linebackers behind Kendricks in IDP drafts.
Alexander is an almost polar opposite of Kendricks in terms of ceiling and risk. Kwon had monster production as a top linebacker for the first 12 games until he was forced to miss the last month for substance abuse. His suspension is over and he is eligible to play Week 1, but Alexander’s on-field play was mediocre at best last year. He still looks like the Bucs’ middle linebacker of the future, but with the Bucs’ addition of solid veteran Daryl Smith, it is possible Alexander leaves the field in nickel packages if last year’s struggles continue. Alexander is being drafted around LB12-15 in all formats, which is a bit too rich for my blood. Personally, I would not pull the trigger until around LB20 in redraft, and in Dynasty I would be looking to move Alexander for a proven veteran like DeAndre Levy or a superior sophomore in Jordan Hicks.
Middle Round Rookies that Disappoint are Forgotten
Many of us succumb to expecting first-year players to produce immediately. We see opportunity for production and if a rookie does not seize the role right away, it tends to lead to the popular opinion that they are not good enough to ever do so. The transition from college to the NFL is massively understated. These rookies are learning new positions, new techniques and new defensive schemes on top of increasing their level of competition to the best in the world. Most young players are slowly brought along and gradually increase playing time as they develop. On offense, touches are the key to fantasy points. You need to have the ball in your hands to produce. On defense, you cannot fill the box score without being on the field. For sophomores, we need to be more concerned with these young players impressing their coaches in year one than filling the stat sheet. So while your leaguemates overlook sophomores that didn’t produce as rookies, remember that patience is key and do not forget that everyone loved these players just a short time ago. Buying low on second-year players in a keeper/Dynasty league is usually a challenge since owners tend to refuse to take a loss on an asset so soon. In drafts taking place this year, however, these “disappointing” sophomores usually drop too far down draft boards and become major values.
A forgotten sophomore that I am targeting is Ramik Wilson. He was drafted by the Chiefs in the fourth round to help fill the void next to Derrick Johnson, who will be 34 years old in November. Wilson has a nose for the ball combined with enough coverage skills to eventually be an every-down linebacker. He only played three games in 2015 but registered a combined 21 tackles while only playing two-thirds of the defensive snaps. The chances of Wilson becoming a consistent and productive IDP linebacker is a coin flip at best, but at such a low cost, acquiring him this offseason could reap significant return on investment down the line.
Arik Armstead was the 17th overall pick in the 2015 draft, so he doesn’t qualify as a middle-round rookie, even if he feels like one. Armstead produced very little in his rookie year, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise. If a defensive line prospect is polished in all aspects of the game and ready to be a three-down player from day one, they almost never make it past the first five picks in the NFL draft. Defensive linemen take time to develop and Armstead looks to be doing so. His value was already depressed and it took another hit a few months ago when the 49ers drafted DeForest Buckner with the No. 7 overall pick, causing some to assume it meant Armstead was already being forgotten. But Buckner was brought in to play with Armstead, not over him. It showed in offseason workouts, where Armstead continued to shine and appears poised for a huge second-year role. You won’t find a better combination of talent and draft pedigree in the midnight hours of a draft than Arik Armstead.
Top Drafted Rookies Will Keep Value Even If They Don’t Deserve It
Acquiring talented players who have struggled in the past at diminished prices is one of the most talked about and used strategies in fantasy football. If you can successfully buy low in IDP, it can pay huge dividends. Personally, I am not one that sells low often. I either try to sell assets at peak value or stick with them through hardship. Speaking of hardship, while middle-round sophomores are cast aside too early, highly touted sophomores (usually first-round NFL draft picks) tend to hold value even when everything points to them being IDP busts. While judging an entire NFL future on one year seems premature, if the concerns are severe enough it is better to acknowledge them immediately than look the other way. The ability to distance yourself from a failing asset will give your team an extra advantage while it holds back other owners lured towards it.
The current sophomore that has more red flags than a 20-car NASCAR pileup is Vic Beasley, yet he still holds value to some. Beasley is an immense athletic talent, but is simply miscast in a 4-3 defense. He does not have the strength or stature to hold the edge against power run plays, which was obvious last year, and Beasley is now moving to strong-side linebacker. The position change destroys Beasley’s IDP outlook since defensive linemen hold so much value due to limited supply compared to linebackers. Yet Beasley still gets constant buzz in IDP circles because of his high draft stock and explosive Combine numbers. Beasley’s situation feels similar to when the Dolphins drafted Dion Jordan. An NFL team took an extremely talented player but ignored how poorly that player’s skill set fit into their defensive scheme. While I’m not projecting Beasley to get suspended as Jordan was, both of these players have the same IDP value in my eyes: Zero.
While everyone else is spending time organizing rookie draft boards and scouting incoming prospects, taking advantage of common overvaluation or overcorrection on second-year players can bring much IDP profit.