The Numbers Game: NBA Free Agents: Moving Day
This week’s edition of the Numbers Game takes an in-depth look at how top-tier free agents who switched teams might fare offensively next season. The goal is to arrive at a rough but objective summary of each player’s likely strengths and weaknesses on their new team. To get there, I compare the player’s points-per-possession (PPP) data to their team’s play types – for instance, Al Horford averaged 1.25 PPP in transition last season, putting him in the 80th percentile. The Celtics’ offense relied on transition plays for 16.3% of their offense last season (5th most in the league), so Horford should fare well as an open-court threat in Boston.
There is a ton of information to be mined from the data below. I can only scratch the surface, and encourage readers to reach their own conclusions by comparing and contrasting player and team data.
I discuss 10 key players who switched teams: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Chandler Parsons, Dwight Howard, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Lin, Pau Gasol and Rajon Rondo. Guys like Evan Turner, Al Jefferson, Luol Deng and others would have made the cut if this were less labor-intensive. The analysis is inherently limited in scope, looking only at scoring efficiency and opportunities, though I also discuss team pace, shot locations, and more. Be mindful that the arrival of a key player can and will change a team’s offensive sets, if not the overall philosophy. For a more holistic take on the free agents below, check out Rotoworld’s player news blurbs as well as recent columns and podcasts. With those disclaimers in mind we begin, naturally, with Kevin Durant.
Note: All of these stats come from the infinitely enlightening NBA.com/stats site. If you care to read the definitions of each play type, you’ll find them at the beginning of this column I wrote in March.
You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW!
Kevin Durant’s PPP numbers from last season are, as usual, ridiculously good. He’s at or above the 85th percentile in every play type except off screens, putbacks and as a roll man – which collectively accounted for 20.9% of his chances. Unlike every other player we’re discussing, it really doesn’t matter where Durant gets his shots, and the stats above show incredible diversity. No play type accounted for more than 19% of his offensive possessions, as he scored with equal proficiency in transition, isolation, post-ups, spot ups, etc. Interestingly, Durant’s mediocre efficiency in off-screen situations will be paired with an offense that relied on off-screens more than any other team in the league. Needless to say, it’s not a real concern. The Thunder and Warriors played at a comparable pace last season, and the real question is whether Durant’s usage will dip in Golden State. Russell Westbrook was a usage-rate behemoth, but now KD is competing with multiple scorers in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and even Draymond Green. Fortunately, any decrease in usage and shot attempts should be balanced by even more impressive FG% numbers, as well as an uptick in 3-pointers. The Warriors launched a league-high 31.6 triples per game last season, which should only increase with Durant in the fold, whereas the Thunder ranked 17th with 23.7 attempts per game. Stephen Curry remains the default No. 1 fantasy pick, but Durant is certainly a contender for the No. 2 spot.
Al Horford’s arrival ensured a successful offseason for Boston, despite missing out on Kevin Durant and getting an underwhelming haul on draft-day. His ability to outrun opposing big men should serve him well with the Celtics – Horford’s excellent 1.25 PPP in transition matches perfectly with the Celtics’ transition-heavy offense. He also gives Boston a stellar pick-and-roll option, something they’ve lacked in recent years. Boston was the 12th most-reliant team on roll-men in pick-and-rolls last season, a number that’s likely to rise with Horford setting picks instead of guys like Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger or Tyler Zeller. He’ll score on putbacks for easy points, and gives them a post-up option when the half-court offense is faltering. Improved spot-up shooting would be nice, as Horford is in the 47th percentile, but even that isn’t shabby for a PF/C, and his 3-point stroke could be a big weapon this year. He made 1.1 triples per game last season, easily a career high, and the Celtics aren’t shy about having their big men fire away from the perimeter. The uptick in 3-pointers should more than offset any decrease in FG%, and all signs point to Horford returning top-20 fantasy value in Boston.
The Grizzlies’ offensive tendencies from 2015-16 must be taken with a grain of salt. David Fizdale has replaced Dave Joerger as head coach, for one thing, and Chandler Parsons’ arrival should inevitably result in more spot-up shooting and transition opportunities – both highly-efficient play types in which Memphis was near the bottom for frequency. Even if Fizdale loosens the reins offensively, Memphis isn’t about to lead the league in fastbreak scoring, given their personnel. They ranked 25th in pace last season, but that’s something Parsons is used to since the Mavericks ranked 23rd in pace. He’s adept in the half-court both with the ball (85th percentile in isolation) and without the ball (77th percentile off cuts), and can also take pressure off Mike Conley as a secondary ball-handler. Assuming his surgically-repaired right knee doesn’t give him any problems, Parsons’ dynamic offensive ability should help diversify the Grizzlies’ often-stodgy play-calling. He may not reach the top-40 heights he attained with the run-and-gun Rockets from 2011-14, but Parsons should emerge as a reliable top-75 player in Memphis.
The Hawks may have a hard time convincing their fan-base that they improved this summer. First-round draft picks Taurean Prince and DeAndre Bembry appear redundant after Kent Bazemore re-signed on a four-year, $70 million deal, and they lost both Al Horford and Jeff Teague while bringing in Dwight Howard to fill the void at center. We saw earlier how effective Horford was in transition, an area in which Howard struggles, but Horford was also more efficient as a roll man, a post-up option, and even on putbacks. A whopping 30.5% of Dwight’s offensive possessions were post-ups last season, but that’s an area Mike Budenholzer de-emphasized last season (just 5.7% of the Hawks’ plays, 26th in the league). Even if his arrival does result in more post-ups, that’s not necessarily a good thing for Atlanta – Howard’s 0.82 PPP on post-ups was below average. He does fare well off cuts, benefiting from easy drop-off passes for layups and dunks, and will need to quickly develop a strong chemistry with newly-minted starter Dennis Schroder. Howard will almost certainly see an uptick in his usage rate, which at 18.4% was the lowest since his rookie year, but that’s where the good news ends. With questionable efficiency, an offense that trends away from his usual comfort zones, and a neophyte point guard running the show, it could be hard for Dwight to improve on the top-75 value he posted last season (as usual, he’s far more palatable if you ignore his FT shooting).
Eric Gordon’s fantasy appeal is first and foremost determined by his health, but Houston had enough faith to give the 27-year-old SG a four-year, $53 million deal. Mike D’Antoni’s arrival ensures that Houston’s offense will be even faster, after finishing 7th in pace last season, but it remains to be seen how Gordon fits into a three-guard rotation with James Harden and Patrick Beverley. Gordon is a very good spot-up shooter, finishing in the 76th percentile on high usage, but he also thrives as a ball-handler – more than ¼ of his offensive plays came as a ball-handler in pick-and-rolls, and his PPP in those situations was borderline elite. Harden’s ball dominance is well known and he’ll once again be Houston’s de facto point guard, potentially hampering one of Gordon’s biggest strengths. The fast pace should result in more transition buckets for Gordon, and he’ll thrive as a spot-up shooter, but fantasy owners should view him as a 3-point specialist with mid-round upside and a mountain of injury concerns.
Setting aside the question of how Houston will defend anyone, Ryan Anderson’s arrival is a nice fit for their offense. His 3-point shooting is the big story, giving Mike D’Antoni a proven gunner to spread the court, but Anderson is more than a one-trick pony. He is a threat in transition (70th percentile) and should see more open-court opportunities with Houston, but he is also a proficient post-up player (88th percentile with significant usage). The increased pace and 3-point looks are great news for his fantasy value, but the biggest change is that he’ll be a full-time starter after serving a sixth-man role in New Orleans. Anderson is still only 28 years old, and fantasy owners should target him as a mid-round source of scoring, 3-pointers, rebounds and FT%…he’s also never committed more than 1.4 turnovers per game in his career, making him even more appealing in 9-cat leagues.
Harrison Barnes will have one of the more radical role changes of any free agent. No longer a fourth option offensively, he’ll be tasked with a major workload on a Mavs team that’s caught between competing for the playoffs and rebuilding for the future. The first thing that jumps out for Barnes is his spot-up shooting, as he was both efficient (80th percentile) and prolific (nearly 30% of his offensive plays). The Mavs used spot-up shots more than any team other than the Jazz, playing to Barnes’ strength in that area, but he should also see an uptick in usage as a ball-handler. He was very efficient as a ball-handler in pick-and-rolls last year, albeit in limited usage, and his growth as a playmaker will go a long way toward defining his success as a go-to scorer. The biggest issue for Barnes is likely to be the Mavs’ plodding pace, as they ranked 23rd in pace last season and were dead last in transition opportunities. That caveat aside, Barnes is poised for robust usage as a featured max-money player, and his durability (five DNPs in his first three seasons, followed by a bad ankle sprain that cost him some time last year) helps solidify him as a mid-round pick in standard leagues.
With only rookies Caris LeVert and Isaiah Whitehead for competition, Jeremy Lin is all but assured a career-high in playing time as the Nets’ starting PG. Ironically, the areas in which Lin was most efficient last season require him to be playing off the ball – he was elite in cuts and off-screen plays, and above-average in hand-offs. The bulk of his opportunities came as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, a situation that shouldn’t change in Brooklyn. That ensures solid assist totals, but Lin’s weaknesses as a scorer could be glaring – he was just mediocre scoring in pick-and-rolls at 0.79 PPP, and was lousy in transition at 1.01 PPP. Lin somehow made just 56.8% of his layup chances last season, shooting a mere 55.6% in the restricted area. He needs to be much better finishing in the paint, but it’s debatable how much room for growth the 27-year-old has at this point in his career. With the ball in his hands more often than not, Lin should still return a career-best fantasy season anchored by 6+ assists per game…even if Kenny Atkinson is less reliant on plays ending with cutters or roll men.
The concentration of Pau Gasol’s play types is striking, with 62.1% of his chances coming in spot-ups, post-ups or as a roll man. Just as interesting is how very average he was in those areas, with spot-ups as his only above-average PPP. The good news is that spot-ups are a pet favorite for the Spurs (5th highest frequency last season). Gasol will also get all the post-up chances he can handle, as the Spurs ran that play type more than any other team, and his excellent passing helps to offset any lackluster shooting efficiency. Tony Parker isn’t the speedy dynamo he once was, and Gasol’s high-post playmaking will be a staple of the Spurs’ offense this year, ensuring that his usage won’t dip much (if at all) from last season’s 24.6%. Although he’ll retain top-20 upside as an across-the-board fantasy asset, the Spurs’ tendency to treat veterans with extreme caution should bump Gasol down a few rounds in typical leagues.
Take another look at Rondo’s numbers. Nearly 1/5 of his offensive chances came in transition last season, but he scored only 0.67 PPP which put him in the 3rd percentile league-wide. You can’t make that up. He was below-average in every single play type except hand-offs, which accounted for a mere 2.4% of his chances…in short, Rondo as a scorer is not the least bit threatening. This isn’t a recent development, but it’s worth reiterating. Rondo isn’t going to match the 11.6 assists he averaged last season on a Kings team that ran at a breakneck, league-leading pace, and there are no guarantees that he’ll play 70+ games after a sequence of injury-plagued campaigns. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg has emphasized plays that end with the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which constituted the bulk of Rondo’s chances last year, but that’s cold comfort for owners interested in more than assists, steals and rebounds. There are too many caveats to expect a repeat of Rondo’s surprising top-40 campaign in Sacramento.
