Saves and Steals: Royal Troubles
In the midst of a closely contested pennant race, the Royals can ill-afford to lose closer Wade Davis. The club isn’t getting much mileage out of the starting rotation, putting even more pressure on the bullpen. Now either Joakim Soria or Kelvin Herrera will seek to fill Davis’ shoes while he mends from a forearm strain. Some players recover quickly from this injury and return to top form like Andrew Miller. Others eventually need Tommy John surgery after a lengthy rehab attempt like Carter Capps and Andrew Heaney. Hope for the best and prepare to be without Davis until 2018.
The disabled list was working in both directions this week. The Athletics lost Sean Doolittle just when it looked like he might reclaim his job. Meanwhile, the Nationals activated Jonathan Papelbon, and the Rays recalled Alex Colome. Jake McGee is also back for the Rockies, but he’s not closing yet.
Jeurys Familia has extended his lead in the saves category – he’s shut the door 29 times. Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon, and A.J. Ramos are tied with 25 saves. Five closers tied for the league lead with three saves in the last week, including Familia and Melancon.
On the stolen base front, Starling Marte blew away the competition with five swipes. Shockingly, catcher J.T. Realmuto stole three bases. Jacoby Ellsbury and Billy Hamilton also nabbed three bags. All of Hamilton’s stolen bases were yesterday against the Cubs. And neither of these bases were included in the total. Jonathan Villar still leads the league with 27 steals.
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Tier 1: Elite (4)
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Davis was always the odd man out in the elite tier due to atypical strikeout and walk rates. Chapman, Jansen, and Britton were fantastic this week in limited work.
The same can’t be said of Kimbrel. His struggles in non-save situations continued last night. After David Price turned in eight innings of three-run ball, Kimbrel coughed up four runs without recording an out. His ERA increased over a point from 2.53 to 3.66. Kimbrel has now allowed runs in three of his last five outings. The Red Sox lost this one 7-2 so Kimbrel’s not to blame for the loss. Still, I’m sure the Sox would have preferred a one-run deficit in the home half of the ninth.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (5)
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Osuna scuffled at Coors Field last Wednesday while protecting a four-run lead. He only allowed two runs so the Jays still won the game. He also pitched twice in the Cleveland series and tacked on a save. Although his season numbers are superb, he has a 4.61 ERA since the start of June. Don’t worry, his 2.95 FIP and 2.89 xFIP suggest better days are ahead.
Familia isn’t an elite reliever, but he’s damned close. The only thing holding him back is a modest 8.70 K/9. He has the stuff to post higher strikeout totals, and he’ll seek them out when hitters reach base. Mostly, he relies on generating weak grounders. He converted all three save opportunities this week without allowing a run.
Melancon had a busy week, pitching four scoreless innings. He tallied three saves and six strikeouts in the process. Robertson also netted three saves and six strikeouts. He did it in three innings. Robertson did allow a solo home run. Nate Jones picked up a save last Wednesday.
Tier 3: Good Veterans (6)
Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Sam Dyson, Texas Rangers
Joakim Soria, Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Colome is back from his minor biceps injury. He tossed a scoreless frame last night in a non-save situation. He has a 1.71 ERA to go with 11.08 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9.
It was far from an ideal week for Ramos and Dyson. Ramos allowed three runs in a couple innings versus the Braves (one blown save). He rebounded last night with a save. Dyson pitched a disaster in a loss last Wednesday – four runs on two home runs in just one-third of an inning. He’s also rebounded with two clean appearances (one save).
Herrera is finally realizing his potential as a top reliever. He’s tightened up his command with a corresponding bump in strikeout rate (11.41 K/9), drop in walks (1.63 BB/9), and a shiny 1.40 ERA. He’s obviously the superior choice for closing – in fact, he’s probably better than a healthy Davis now.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ned Yost go with the experienced alternative. Although Soria has a modest 3.13 ERA with 7.96 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9, he’s more familiar with the ninth inning role. Yost may want to avoid messing with Herrera’s success in a setup role. We’ll see how this shakes out. Davis’ expected recovery time could be relevant too. A short stint on the disabled list would favor using Soria.
After a couple shaky weeks, Allen turned in a tidy three save performance in three outings. K-Rod saved two in two innings.
