Offseason Low Down: Colts Fantasy Preview
Colts Year in Review
2015 Pass Attempts Rank: 9th (619)
2015 Rush Attempts Rank: 21st (396)
2015 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 12th (1,052)
2015 Yards Per Play Rank: 32nd (4.9)
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Andrew Luck
RB: Frank Gore
WR: T.Y. Hilton
WR: Donte Moncrief
WR: Phillip Dorsett
TE: Dwayne Allen
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Jack Mewhort
C: Ryan Kelly
RG: Denzelle Good
RT: Joe Reitz
Passing Game Outlook
Just the latest in a lengthy line of early-ADP quarterback busts, Andrew Luck‘s 2015 failures can at least be chalked up to injuries. Luck looked like a shell-shocked, potentially-already-injured quarterback in Indianapolis’ first three games wherein he committed eight turnovers before missing the next two weeks with a partially separated throwing shoulder, then returned to lack velocity on his throws for the ensuing month. A lacerated kidney mercifully ended Luck’s season in Week 9. Even while significantly short of 100 percent, Luck’s 16-game pace stats included 4,299.4 passing yards and 34.2 touchdown passes in seven appearances, which would have ranked eighth and sixth in the NFL, respectively. Luck was fully recovered by February and inked a new six-year, $140 million contract in late June. Luck’s draft cost remains pricey with a late fourth-round Average Draft Position in casual leagues and a sixth- to seventh-round ADP in more competitive MFL10s. While I’m probably not going to own many shares this year, I do like Luck’s odds of rebounding. Indianapolis has surrounded Luck with explosive weaponry and addressed its interior line by drafting stud Alabama C Ryan Kelly with the 18th overall pick. The schedule is littered with suspect pass defenses, indoor games, and matchups with shootout potential like Detroit at home, San Diego at home, Green Bay at Lambeau, and Pittsburgh at home on Thanksgiving. The Colts’ sub-par defensive personnel will continue to force this team to pile up points to stay competitive. And the running game will be shouldered by 33-year-old Frank Gore.
T.Y. Hilton remained a useful 2015 fantasy asset amid topsy-turvy quarterback play. He finished as the WR22 in non-PPR leagues and WR23 in PPR, topping 130 targets and 1,000 yards for the third straight season. As Adam Levitan has noted, Hilton has an 82-1,504-10 stat line across Luck’s last 16 fully-played games. A 4.34 speedster, Hilton has been especially lethal beneath a dome or retractable roof, where his average per-game receiving line is 4.9/79.1/0.5 versus 4.0/57.8/0.3 outdoors. The Colts, of course, play their home games beneath Lucas Oil Stadium’s retractable roof. Dating back to Reggie Wayne‘s breakdown, Luck and Hilton have formed an on-field relationship that fantasy owners should not understimate. They stay on the same page even when plays break down, which has been known to occur behind a shoddy Colts offensive line. Hilton is capable of winning at all three levels of the field. Not yet 27 years old, Hilton is one of this year’s safest second-/third-round wide receiver picks and offers top-ten upside.
The Colts have a whopping 222 unaccounted-for targets from last year’s roster, creating a major opportunity void for Hilton to potentially reset his career high and Donte Moncrief to take a big leap following a promising-if-inconsistent sophomore campaign. Exceptionally young coming out of Ole Miss in 2014, Moncrief won’t turn 23 until August and is eight months younger than Josh Docston, six months younger than Sterling Shepard, and only eight months older than Will Fuller. An up-and-down beginning to Moncrief’s career should have been expected. He now appears primed for liftoff as a classic third-year breakout. Even with departed Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson in the fold, Moncrief’s 54 targets were only 11 shy of Hilton’s 65 in Luck’s seven starts last year, while Moncrief’s five touchdowns led the Colts with Luck at the controls. Over the last two seasons, Moncrief has actually beaten Hilton in catch rate (62.3%/57.0%), drop rate (3.9%/4.9%), and touchdowns per target (5.8%/4.5%). Even for as much as I love Hilton this year, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that Moncrief could prove the superior value in drafts.
The most obvious candidate for an increased role in Indy is sophomore burner Phillip Dorsett, whom GM Ryan Grigson made the 29th overall pick in last year’s draft despite glaring holes on defense and the offensive line. As a rookie, Dorsett languished behind Hilton, Moncrief, and Johnson on the depth chart before suffering a fractured left ankle/fibula in Week 7 and missing the next six weeks. He returned late in the season and saw nine targets in the Colts’ season finale. Coach Chuck Pagano indicated in March that the Colts will try to manufacture touches for Dorsett, whose 4.33 jets can add a new dimension to the offense. As Indianapolis is likely to morph from a two-tight end team into a three-receiver attack following Fleener’s departure, Dorsett should have a chance to log upwards of 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps this season. I don’t expect reliable re-draft impact from Dorsett, but that could change if Hilton or Moncrief goes down. I like Dorsett as a volatile 11th-/12th-round pick in best-ball formats.
Before letting Fleener walk, the Colts re-signed combination tight end Dwayne Allen to a four-year, $29.4 million deal in hopes that Allen’s best football is ahead of him. Plagued by injuries, 26-year-old Allen has missed 21 games over the past three seasons. In order to assist a porous offensive line, Allen has run routes on just 38.9% (2015) and 48.5% (2014) of his snaps, which pales in comparison to someone like Jordan Reed (69.5%, 60.0%). Allen did catch eight TDs in 2014 and remains Indianapolis’ most imposing red-zone target at 6-foot-3 and 255 pounds compared to Hilton (5’10/183), Moncrief (6’2/221), and Dorsett (5’10/185). Unlikely to suddenly become a high-volume pass catcher, Allen’s 2016 fantasy appeal lies entirely in his scoring potential. While I don’t view Allen as a probable every-week starter in re-draft leagues, he does make sense as a TE2/3 in best ball and could emerge as a viable in-season streamer.
Running Game Outlook
The Colts’ 2015 offense tanked sans Luck and took Frank Gore down with it. Although Gore turned in his fifth straight 16-game season and recorded his second highest carry total (260) since 2011, his reception count (34), yards per carry (3.72), and touchdowns (7) all disappointed for a back whose preseason ADP climbed into the top-three rounds of 12-team drafts. Gore turned 33 this May, and it’s fair to wonder if he has gas left in the tank. I thought his game tape indicated that he does and Pro Football Focus more-or-less agreed, charting Gore as a top-seven NFL back in missed tackles forced and yards after contact. Gore also respectably finished No. 21 among 52 backs in Elusive Rating. Behind a miserable line with atrocious quarterback play, Gore’s 2015 rushing environment was among the worst in football. With C Ryan Kelly on board and Luck healthy, Gore’s situation should improve immensely if he’s able to outlast Father Time for one more season. Still facing minimal competition for backfield snaps, Gore is an appealing sixth-/seventh-round target for fantasy owners employing a receiver-heavy approach early in drafts. He has locked-in touches in an offense with high-scoring potential.
Gore’s advanced age and declining efficiency make Indianapolis’ No. 2 tailback battle worthy of close monitoring in training camp. Contenders include 26-year-old journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman, second-year UDFA Tyler Varga, and rookie UDFA Josh Ferguson, who has generated persistent hype since the Colts gave him the biggest signing bonus ($10,000) in their undrafted class. A dynamic-if-brittle all-purpose playmaker at Illinois, Ferguson missed 16 games in his college career due to injury, but flashed Dion Lewis-caliber burst and stop-start elusiveness before clocking 4.48 at 5-foot-10, 198 at the Combine. An Indianapolis Star report claimed the Colts considered selecting Ferguson as early as the fourth round of May’s draft. Owner Jim Irsay has stated Ferguson “has a chance to be special” in a space-back role.
2016 Vegas Win Total
Coming off a narrowly-missed playoff berth despite Luck’s lost season and an 8-8 record, the Colts’ 2016 Win Total stands at 8.5 games. Indianapolis went 11-5 in Luck’s previous three seasons and has yet to finish worse than second in the AFC South since Luck entered the pros. Warren Sharp evaluated the Colts with the NFL’s 13th softest schedule pre-schedule release. Outside their division, Indy’s slate consists of the NFC North and AFC West, plus Pittsburgh at home and the Jets on the road. The Colts are pre-season favorites in eight of their first 15 contests. Ultimately, an over bet on 8.5 is contingent on Luck staying healthy and rediscovering 2012-2014 form. I like those odds, as well as the odds of Indianapolis peeling off 9-10 wins.
