Fantasy Roundtable: Roundtable: McCarthyism
This is the weekly Fantasy Roundtable, where the writers of Rotoworld Baseball let the readers of Rotoworld Baseball in on a quick staff discussion. It’s water cooler talk … that we’ve decided to publish. Look for it every Tuesday.
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Drew Silva: Let’s discuss Brandon McCarthy. He looked sharp Sunday in his first start back from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery, striking out eight batters over five scoreless innings as the Dodgers topped the Rockies. What’s the ROS fantasy outlook here? Can he keep it going?
David Shovein: I don’t think that he’s going to fire five shutout innings every time out and maintain anything close to a 14.4 K/9, but I do think he’ll be a useful commodity in mixed leagues for the remainder of the season as long as he remains healthy. Before the elbow troubles, McCarthy had a four-year run from 2011-2014 where he posted a 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 6.5 K/9 while averaging 154 innings a season. That’s not setting the world on fire, but that kind of line certainly has value as a bottom of the rotation starter in mixed leagues or as a streaming option for favorable matchups. Add in the fact that he’ll pitch half of his games in the extremely pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium (where he owns a 3.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 over five career starts), and it’s easy to make the case that he’s worth an add in deeper formats.
Ryan Boyer: McCarthy became a lot more interesting as a pitcher in 2014 when his velocity spiked as a result of a workout routine designed to strengthen his upper body. The results haven’t always been there ERA-wise, but he’s been missing more bats while maintaining his excellent walk and groundball rates (his flyballs were up last season, but I’m calling “fluke” on that since it was only four starts). The usual Tommy John caveats apply here, as we’re never sure how sharp a pitcher’s command will be and there could also be, at least initially, some limits on his workload. However, McCarthy looked good Sunday, he’s throwing hard, throwing strikes, keeping the ball on the ground, and pitching in a pitcher-friendly park. The righty has a lot of things going for him.
Drew Silva: I got this question from a reader in my Season Pass chat Sunday and it serves as a relevant followup: For the rest of the season, would you rather have McCarthy or rotation mate Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is scheduled to make his 2016 debut Thursday against the Padres?
Jesse Pantuosco: Neither looked particularly sharp during their minor league rehab assignments (1-2, 4.23 ERA for Ryu, 0-1, 4.61 for McCarthy) but that’s never been a great indicator of big league success. If we’re going solely on track record, Ryu would have to be the play. He misses more bats (7.67 K/9), his career ERA is almost a full run lower than McCarthy’s (3.17 versus 4.11) and the fact that he’s a lefty will create matchup problems for opposing teams.
With that in mind, McCarthy looked great against the Rockies on Sunday. His fastball had more bite than usual (averaged 93.2 mph) and the eight strikeouts were unexpected. In fact, McCarthy might be turning over a new leaf in the strikeout department. He’s put up an 8.37 K/9 since the start of 2014, which is well above his career mark of 6.5.
However, it looks like the Dodgers still have him on a pretty short leash. McCarthy only logged 72 pitches Sunday, which is 12 fewer than Ryu threw during his last rehab start. They’re both interesting but if I had to choose, I’d lean toward Ryu.
Nate Grimm: I’ll be the wet blanket here — I’m not really bullish on either pitcher in 2016. Shoulder injuries are arguably scarier than elbow injuries for pitchers these days, so Ryu’s balky left shoulder is terrifying to rely on. And although McCarthy looked good on Sunday, I’m barely inclined to count on dominant starters in their first year off Tommy John surgery, let alone good-not-great pitchers. If Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, etc., need a year to get back up to speed, I’m just not sure Brandon McCarthy is the guy to buck the trend. I don’t think either guy is a trustworthy fantasy play in the near future.
Matthew Pouliot: I’m not optimistic at all about Ryu, given the severity of his shoulder injury and the reports on his velocity. McCarthy, though, I’d be very open to taking a chance on in mixed leagues. The results weren’t there last year before he underwent Tommy John, but the velocity spike and big increase in strikeout rate suggested they were coming. His velocity spike has carried over since Tommy John, and he could end up with a fine ERA and a very strong WHIP the rest of the way. Of course, setbacks are a definite possibility, as we just saw with Yu Darvish. But as a free agent pickup, he’s well worth a try.
You can follow these @Rotoworld_BB writers on Twitter: @drewsilv, @DaveShovein, @RyanPBoyer, @JessePantuosco, @matthewpouliot, @Nate_Grimm.