Bump and Run: Luck Strikes it Rich
The buildup to Kevin Durant’s landmark deal with the Golden State Warriors delivered all the drama you could ask for in a mid-summer blockbuster (even Tom Brady was involved!). Andrew Luck’s contract extension with Indianapolis last week had none of that. It was as predictable as fireworks on the 4th of July and a lot less exciting.
Colts owner Jim Irsay spilled the beans months earlier when he told ESPN that Luck’s new contract would be for a “shocking number” (his definition of “shocking” at the time was $20 million a year). But honestly, what were we expecting from the Kenneth Parcell of NFL quarterbacks? Remember, we’re talking about a guy who compliments opposing defenders after getting sacked. Breaking into the cash register and holding the Colts ransom just wasn’t in Luck’s makeup. He wanted a simple, no-frills deal and that’s exactly what he got.
Let’s not undersell this thing, though. Luck’s six-year, $140 million extension is still the richest in NFL history. That number tops the previous high for a quarterback set by Jay Cutler in 2014 ($126.7 million) and also includes more guaranteed money ($87 million) than Eli Manning received from his five-year megadeal last offseason ($65 million).
It’s a substantial deal and more money than Luck could ever spend, but the contract still feels rather anticlimactic. We knew Luck was going to out-earn Cutler and Eli—he’s better and a lot younger. But he was supposed to blow those guys out of the water. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that Luck would become the first player in NFL history to net $25 million a year. He fell just short of that mark by earning $23.3 million annually.
There’s something to be said for Luck’s smooth negotiating tactics. By leaving money on the table, Luck gave the Colts a little extra to spend on free agents and other needs should something crop up (the offensive line could use an upgrade). Tom Brady has followed a similar path in New England, agreeing to team-friendly extensions to give the Patriots more cap flexibility. Egregious megadeals can sometimes divide a locker room but I doubt Luck’s teammates will harbor any resentment over this deal.
They’re in the minority, but there is a small contingent that feels Luck may have been overpaid. Luck’s stats, though impressive, aren’t as gaudy as his groundbreaking salary might suggest. His 74.9 passer rating last year was among the worst in football and he’s thrown 55 interceptions in 55 games since arriving as the No. 1 pick in 2012.
But that’s a shortsighted view and 2015 can be classified as a throwaway year for Luck as he missed nine games and was injured for several others. The team’s lackluster play during his absence only strengthens the argument that Luck is the bedrock of Indy’s success. Winning outweighs statistics and the Colts have been to the postseason every year that Luck has been healthy, advancing as far as the AFC Championship in 2014 before losing to the Patriots in the infamous Deflategate game. By most measures, Luck is still a top-five quarterback heading into his age-27 season. There’s room to grow with youngsters Donte Moncrief (22) and Phillip Dorsett (23) quickly developing into weapons alongside deep threat T.Y. Hilton.
The laidback nature of Luck’s negotiations pays no resemblance to the tug of war taking shape in our nation’s capital. There’s been a much different vibe in D.C. as Kirk Cousins and the Redskins continue to grapple over contract figures. Cousins is far less established than Luck but he’s coming off a strong season and is eager to cash in at a position where overpaying has become the norm. ESPN’s Adam Schefter remarked that a deal between the two sides could be “difficult,” leading many to believe Cousins will play out the year under the $19.953 million franchise tag. The Redskins have until the July 15 deadline to patch things up with their franchise quarterback.
Luck may have set in motion a league-wide domino effect at quarterback. Every deal in the immediate future will inevitably be compared to Luck’s watershed, six-year deal. Luck’s surprisingly reasonable contract demands may have taken away some of Cousins’ negotiating power. Cousins has his sights set on a deal in the range of $20 million a year. That’s probably close to his market value but Cousins won’t see much more than that with Luck topping out at $23.3 million annually. Of course, the salary cap has grown over 26 percent since 2013, so anything is within the realm of possibility.
I’m sure Blake Bortles was keeping a close eye on Luck’s negotiations. Bortles could be in for the biggest payday among the next wave of NFL signal callers. He’s entering the middle year of a five-year pact, assuming the Jags exercise his option for 2018. Jacksonville still has plenty of cap space and an impressive young core featuring talented receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. If Bortles can duplicate his 2015 totals, he could be in for a nine-figure deal next offseason. Tyrod Taylor and Drew Brees are also nearing the end of their contracts and could point to Luck’s $23.3 million benchmark in negotiations. Brees could conceivably earn more than that, though at age 37, it’s unlikely he’ll match the years or guaranteed money Luck received on his deal.
Luck wasn’t the only player to score a big raise this week. Doug Baldwin re-upped with the Seahawks on a four-year, $46 million pact. Again, Baldwin didn’t squeeze the Seahawks for every last penny but it’s a fair price for a player coming off a breakout season that included a league-high 14 touchdowns. It’s more lucrative than the five-year, $40 million contract signed by Marvin Jones this offseason but far below the matching five-year, $70 million agreements forged by Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas last summer.
The deal most resembles Jeremy Maclin’s five-year, $55 million deal with Kansas City and that’s probably an apt comparison. Maclin reeled in 1,088 receiving yards on 87 catches last year compared to 78/1,069 for Baldwin. Emmanuel Sanders (76/1,135/6) could earn a similar payday if he hits the market next offseason. He’s currently in talks with Denver, though the Broncos may put those discussions on hold with Von Miller’s contract deadline nearing.
Baldwin brought a new dynamic to the offense last year as the Seahawks pivoted from a ground-and-pound team to a high-octane vertical attack. With Marshawn Lynch gone, the Seahawks will again flex their passing muscles in 2016. With that said, Baldwin is probably due for some regression. The Seahawks won’t ignore the run game entirely with Thomas Rawls aiming for a workhorse role and many of Baldwin’s best weeks last season came with Jimmy Graham (torn patellar tendon) on the shelf. Tyler Lockett, who I wrote about last week, is also ready to take on a bigger workload as the team’s primary deep threat.
Even if he falls short of the 14 touchdowns he totaled in 2015, Baldwin is still crazy efficient (caught 75 percent of his targets last year) and should have space to operate with Lockett drawing defenders on deep routes. Formerly a boom-or-bust fantasy option, Baldwin has graduated to legitimate WR2 status.
Quick Hits: Marquise Goodwin came up short in his bid for an Olympic long jump berth this past weekend. He’ll rejoin the Bills for training camp, but wants to rest up first … Coaching great Buddy Ryan passed away at 85 last week. You’ve probably heard of his fun-loving sons Rex and Rob, who recently shared a tandem bike in Buffalo … Kevin Durant didn’t sign with the Celtics, but it wasn’t for lack of effort. Tom Brady attended the team’s meeting with Durant in the Hamptons last weekend while Julian Edelman went ahead and made a custom Kevin Durant Celtics jersey. For now, Boston fans will have to settle for Al Horford … Danny Amendola had some interesting things to say about the Patriots’ offense when he made the rounds at ESPN last week. “In our offense, it’s kind of like if you take away all the street signs on the road and you kind of just drive,” said Amendola. “You yield and stop at an intersection just by what you feel and what you see with your eyes.” It’s no wonder that receivers like Chad Johnson have struggled to grasp New England’s complex passing game … Former Patriot Vince Wilfork was featured in ESPN’s annual body issue. My analysis: Wilfork is a large man … Former NBA star Nate Robinson tried out for the Seahawks as a defensive back last month but he’s decided to follow Pete Carroll’s advice and switch to wide receiver. The 32-year-old is training with WRs coach Dwayne Frampton, who has previously mentored Odell Beckham and DeSean Jackson … Sheldon Richardson was handed a one-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. The league also gave out suspensions to Darren Waller (four games for substance abuse), Johnny Manziel (four games for substance abuse) and Rolando McClain (10 games for substance abuse) while upholding Demarcus Lawrence’s four-game ban from May (also for substance abuse) … Jason Pierre-Paul cut a public service announcement promoting fireworks safety. This comes a year after JPP blasted off two of his fingers in a 4th of July accident … Broncos beat writer Troy Renck of the Denver Post believes Mark Sanchez has a “slight edge” over Trevor Siemian in Denver’s quarterback battle but added that Sanchez “has to win” the job during training camp. Meanwhile rookie Paxton Lynch could be headed for a red-shirt year in 2016 … Apparently Le’Veon Bell hinted about his contract demands in a rap song called “Focus.” Here are the lyrics: “I’m at the top and if not I’m the closest. I’m a need 15 a year and they know this.” I still like Dylan’s verse better … DeAngelo Williams has some thoughts after following the first few days of NBA free agency. “This offseason is so slow that the NBA has lost its mind and [started] paying players you have to Google substantial amounts of money!” Do you think he Googled Evan Fournier?
