Fact or Fiction: Beckham Jr. stat predictions – Giants.com (blog)
The Giants.com staff makes predictions for the 2016 season with Training Camp less than a month away:
Beckham will lead the NFL in a major receiving category.
JOHN SCHMEELK: Fact – This will have as much to do with Beckham as it does with how the other top receivers in the league do and whether or not they stay healthy. But with Beckham, the Giants’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver, he has as good a chance as anyone to lead the NFL in any one of those three categories. He will get plenty of targets, can take it to the house at any time, and works extremely hard to always be in the right place at the right time.
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DAN SALOMONE: Fact – He was one touchdown shy of a four-way tie for the league lead in 2015. And that was the dreaded “sophomore slump” that a receiver is supposed to go through in his second season. He clearly didn’t have one of those. Meanwhile, he was fifth in yards and eighth in receptions. Beckham will take the crown in one of those three categories in his third NFL season. He’s trending in that direction.
LANCE MEDOW: Fiction – In his first two seasons in the NFL, the closest Odell Beckham came to leading the league in one of those categories was last season when he had 13 touchdowns (14 was the league high). If he were to the lead the NFL in any of those categories in 2016, his best chance would be touchdowns but with the return of Victor Cruz, the arrival of second round pick Sterling Shepard and the focus to get the running game going, I think all those factors will eat into Beckham’s totals. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll still be extremely productive, but Eli Manning will look to spread the wealth.
A tight end will be second on the team in receptions.
JOHN SCHMEELK: Fiction – I think the Giants are going to spread the love at tight end this year. There’s a chance that Shane Vereen has as many or more catches as the Giants’ top tight end. If Sterling Shepard develops quickly, and Victor Cruz is healthy, it might take some targets away from the tight end position as well.
DAN SALOMONE: Fiction – It wouldn’t be crazy if a non-wide receiver came in second. Running back Shane Vereen did so last season with 59 receptions, the highest total of his career. But between the healthy return of Victor Cruz and the addition of Sterling Shepard via the draft, a wide receiver probably will claim that spot, most likely behind Odell Beckham Jr. Also, keep an eye on how players like Myles White and Geremy Davis progress through the summer and preseason.
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LANCE MEDOW: Fiction – The last time a tight end finished second on the team in receptions was 2012 when Martellus Bennett had 55 catches behind Victor Cruz’s team-high 86. Keep in mind, Hakeem Nicks was third with 53 and missed three games that season. Last season, Shane Vereen (59 receptions) finished second behind Odell Beckham, but I think this season, Sterling Shepard or Cruz will claim that spot.
An offensive lineman will make the Pro Bowl.
JOHN SCHMEELK: Fact – And that offensive lineman will be Weston Richburg. He was a deserving candidate last season but was beaten out by Travis Frederick and Ryan Kalil. Alex Mack comes into the NFC this year, as well, as the new starter for the Falcons. It will be tough to finish ahead of those players since Pro Bowl voting is often just a popularity contest, but Richburg’s play will certainly be deserving.
DAN SALOMONE: Fact – The Giants have a top 10 offense that could break into the top five this season. A major reason for the success has been the offensive line, which now boasts two former first-round draft picks on the left side and a second-rounder at center. Only three teams allowed fewer sacks than the Giants in 2015.
LANCE MEDOW: Fiction – The Pro Bowl is a popularity contest and more often than not, names hold a bit more weight than a player’s actual performance. Unfortunately, most of the Giants’ offensive linemen aren’t household names, but with that being said, I think Weston Richburg has the best chance to make the Pro Bowl. He’s entering his third year in the league and has developed some nice chemistry with Eli Manning under center since he took over the starting spot in 2015. To further show how difficult it is to make the Pro Bowl, when the Giants built their line around David Diehl, Rich Seubert, Shaun O’Hara, Chris Snee and Kareem McKenzie, Diehl didn’t make his first Pro Bowl until his seventh season, O’Hara his ninth and Snee his fifth. Seubert and McKenzie never made the Pro Bowl.
Rashad Jennings will have his first 1,000-yard season.
JOHN SCHMEELK: Fact – I’m going to go out on the limb, and probably against logic, and say Jennings will gain 1,000 yards on the ground this year. He finished last year strong and if that continues, he should get enough carries to eclipse 1,000 yards. He has never carried that type of load in a season before, but no one stays in better shape than Jennings, so I think he can stay healthy. The “X” factor here is if one of the young running backs forces their way onto the field and into his carry allotment with strong play.
DAN SALOMONE: Fiction – In baseball, they say players play to the back of their cards. I’m going to use that logic here with football. While he came close last year with a career-high 863 yards, Jennings hasn’t hit 1,000 in his seven NFL seasons. I’ll just say fiction until we see it. Simple as that.
LANCE MEDOW: Fact – Last season, Rashad Jennings achieved a lot of firsts. He played in all 16 games for the first time in his career and recorded career-highs in carries (195) and rushing yards (863). Important to note: 432 of those 863 yards came in the final four games. Considering that stat and assuming there’s more consistency in the running game this season, I don’t see why reaching 1,000 yards would be considered a stretch.