Lawro's predictions – quarter-finals – BBC Sport

BBC Sport football expert Mark Lawrenson is predicting the outcome of every game at the 2016 European Championship.

Lawro picked the winner in six of the eight last-16 ties.

He enjoyed a 42% success rate in the group stage, correctly guessing the outcome of 15 of the 36 games.

The only group he failed to get a single result in was Group F, which saw Hungary and Iceland spring a surprise by finishing first and second.

Before the tournament Lawro chose 11 of the 16 teams that are through to the first knockout stage, including France, his pick to win the tournament on 10 July.

Along with almost 350,000 of you, Lawro is taking part in the new BBC Sport Predictor game. He is going head-to-head with pundits, presenters and commentators from across BBC Sport. He’s doing well, though he’s not top as things stand:

You can make your own predictions and take on your friends and other fans using the BBC’s Euros Predictor.

Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.

Lawro’s quarter-final predictions

Thursday, 30 June

Poland v Portugal (Marseille, 20:00 BST)

I think most people will be looking at this game and thinking ‘if Cristiano Ronaldo is on form, Portugal will win’.

But I have been to two Poland games at Euro 2016 now, and have been very impressed with what I’ve seen, right through their side.

Their star striker and captain Robert Lewandowski is yet to score in France but he works hard for his team, even if he does not find the net.

Lewandowski runs the channels, drops deep, is a target man and a link man – he does absolutely everything, and is such a good leader for them as well.

They do not just rely on him, though, unlike Portugal who need one player – Ronaldo – to be at the top of his game to have a chance.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Friday, 1 July

Wales v Belgium (Lille, 20:00 BST)

Wales are the last home nation left in the tournament and their success is fully deserved. This game might be a step too far for them, though.

Belgium turned Hungary over quite easily, and have hit a bit of form. As well as being strong going forward, they are solid at the back too.

Thomas Vermaelen is suspended but they can bring Jan Vertonghen in from left-back to partner his Tottenham team-mate Toby Alderweireld, so there is no weakness there.

Wales took four points from Belgium in qualifying – drawing 0-0 in Brussels and winning 1-0 in Cardiff.

They will be thinking that if they can get the best out of Gareth Bale they can beat anyone, and I understand why.

But Belgium dominated both of those games and it will take another faultless defensive display to keep them out again.

Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

Saturday, 2 July

Germany v Italy (Bordeaux, 20:00 BST)

Italy were so impressive in their win over Spain in the last 16, even just by the way they made the pitch bigger for themselves when they had possession but made everything narrower for Spain when they had the ball.

It was a very clever way to play against the Spanish and Italy had a lot of chances – they could have won a lot more comfortably than the 2-0 scoreline.

The Azzurri have got momentum too but the most important thing about them is the backbone to their side.

Even when they are not dominating matches, with their back three and the goalkeeper, they buy themselves time.

It is widely recognised that this Italian team is not one of the most talented they have taken to a major tournament but they have a distinctive way of playing. Unlike, say, England every single one of them knows their job and what is expected in every single situation.

Italy will love being the underdogs and I would fancy them against pretty much every other team in the last eight – but they are playing Germany, who have basically strolled through the tournament so far.

Germany have always had a very fluid style but they look a lot more like scoring now they have Mario Gomez as a focal point up front, which was the one thing they were missing at the start of the competition.

This will be a very tough test for them but they have got the quality and mindset they need to beat Italy, and go on to win Euro 2016.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Sunday, 3 July

France v Iceland (Stade de France – Paris, 20:00 BST)

Wales have done brilliantly to reach the quarter-finals but when you look at what Iceland have done, it is the story of the tournament.

Whatever happens now, they have made themselves heroes. They completely deserved it too – they did not just beat England, they humiliated them.

That was the fourth time they have picked the same starting XI in France, and I would imagine they will pick the same team against the hosts.

France got a little bit lucky against the Republic of Ireland in their last match, because until N’Golo Kante went off at half-time, they were short of ideas.

But with just Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi in the middle – rather than Matuidi out right – they looked much better balanced. With Kante suspended, Kingsley Coman should come in again, so the same should apply.

We know France are not great at the back but they will have seen what happened to England, and will not make the same mistakes.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Lawro’s last 16 predictions

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