Bump and Run: Handling the Hype Machine
Better buckle up. It’s hype season in the NFL, which is always a bit dicey. For context, let’s go to the Rotoworld archives:
June 23, 2015: “The Tampa Tribune says Doug Martin had his ‘best offseason in three years.’”
You know that’s an old blurb because the Tampa Tribune doesn’t exist anymore. Anyway, here’s another one:
August 23, 2015: “The Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Matt Vensel believes Charles Johnson is ‘the receiver Teddy Bridgewater trusts most.’”
And another:
June 9, 2016: “Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune believes Charles Johnson‘s roster spot could be in jeopardy.”
Last one, I promise:
June 18, 2016: “The Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Matt Vensel said Charles Johnson was the receiver who ‘popped out most during spring workouts.’”
Now do you see what we’re dealing with? The offseason is anarchy. One day Charles Johnson looks like Julio Jones, the next he looks like a practice squad player. How are we supposed to process this?
In the world of fantasy football, we feast on numbers. It’s our breakfast, lunch and dinner. Targets, drops, yards after contact, broken tackles, red zone percentage—this is our oxygen. But how do you quantify something like hype?
Beat writers and reporters are our eyes and ears at training camp, but ultimately as fantasy owners, the decision is up to us. We need to separate hype from reality, which in many cases is almost impossible. Charles Johnson and Doug Martin both looked good last summer. When the regular season came around, one fell flat while the other was a first-team All-Pro. How are we supposed to know the difference on draft day?
That’s the frustrating part of fantasy football but also what makes it so appealing. I like to think I know a thing or two about fantasy, but I don’t win every league I’m in. If there was a guaranteed way to guess right on every player, we’d have a machine do it and there wouldn’t be any need for fantasy football writers like yours truly (please don’t replace me with a machine, NBC).
We do our best to present as much information as possible, to share our thoughts and observations, but in the end, nobody knows. And because of that, every Sunday is a riveting, joyful, horrifying, emotional roller coaster you can’t find anywhere else. I guess that’s my longwinded way of saying that preseason hype works both ways.
So where is the hype machine headed this summer? The first stop is Jacksonville, where Julius Thomas has been putting on a clinic. Beat writer Hays Carlyon of the Florida Times Union marveled at what he saw from Thomas this offseason, describing him as “nearly unstoppable.” Jaguars coach Gus Bradley agreed that Thomas was “very good” at OTAs.
Thomas’ first year in Jacksonville was certainly an adjustment. He got off to a sluggish start by hauling in just 167 yards and one touchdown over his first six contests. The light bulb finally went on in Week 12 when he gashed the Chargers for 116 yards and a touchdown. Finally healthy after being plagued by a broken hand early in the year, Thomas finished the season by visiting the end zone in four of his last seven contests.
Despite his strong showing at OTAs, fantasy owners are still proceeding cautiously with Thomas. His consensus ADP on FantasyPros is 95, which puts him firmly on the TE1 borderline. I think he belongs in the top 10 but I understand the reluctance with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns hogging most of the targets from quarterback Blake Bortles.
Tyler Lockett is another player who’s gotten some positive word of mouth this offseason. What say you, Pete Carroll?
“He’s a legit player for us, and he’s right in the middle of all our planning and all of our preparation,” the Seahawks coach told ESPN. “He can do everything.”
That’s the part that worries me. When Carroll says Lockett can do everything, does that mean he envisions him as a gadget player in the mold of Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin? Versatility is a great trait but it doesn’t always translate to fantasy success. Functioning as the Rams’ Swiss army knife last season, Austin made a number of memorable plays but never saw more than eight targets or eight carries in a game. With such limited touches, Austin was your classic touchdown-or-bust fantasy option.
Fortunately, I think the Seahawks see Lockett as more of a traditional wide receiver. Lockett totaled 664 receiving yards last year, which was third among rookies behind only Stefon Diggs and Amari Cooper. Lockett is already a star in the return game with two touchdowns (one kickoff, one punt) and a first-team All-Pro selection last year. With speed to burn and a quarterback who loves throwing deep (Russell Wilson), Lockett could be a real threat opposite Doug Baldwin, who is coming off a breakout year of his own. Leaving defenders in the dust every Sunday will be easy compared to facing Richard Sherman in practice every day. Lockett’s volume still concerns me—he only averaged 4.25 targets per game last year. But if the Seahawks give Lockett a chance to be a legitimate No. 2 receiver, sky is the limit.
The Ravens seem to be pretty high on Mike Wallace these days. But let’s be honest—there’s no bigger Mike Wallace fan than Mike Wallace. Here’s what Wallace had to say about his favorite player: “I think I’ve gotten better, even though [the] numbers don’t say so … I think I’ll get better this year, and I’ll show some people I have a lot up my sleeve.”
If you’re looking to hop on the Mike Wallace bandwagon, Eric Weddle is already driving it. “There’s a reason why he was one of the best wide receivers in the league a few years ago,” said Weddle of his new teammate. “You get a guy like that, it makes for a great season for him and for this team.”
Wallace may not have shown much last year—his 473 yards were a career low—but the 29-year-old is still a polished route runner with decent hands. Remember, Wallace is only two years removed from scoring double-digit touchdowns. He’s also been remarkably durable throughout his career, missing just one game since debuting in 2009. With Steve Smith Sr. coming off a torn Achilles, Wallace should get a steady workload as the Ravens’ No. 2 wideout.
One player who has not drawn rave reviews this offseason is Robert Griffin III. RG3 miraculously landed a starting gig this offseason after spending his 2015 campaign holding a clipboard for Kirk Cousins. So far he hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity.
Browns coach Hue Jackson said Griffin III is “still mastering the quarterback position,” which isn’t something coaches normally say about a player who’s been in the league for five years. Beat writer Tony Grossi of ESPN Cleveland agrees that it’s been an “underwhelming” offseason for the former Heisman Trophy winner. Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer said Griffin III has at least been “coachable,” which is probably the best compliment he’s received this offseason. Something tells me the hype machine won’t be making a stop in Cleveland this summer, unless it’s for LeBron James or Francisco Lindor.
Quick Hits: Johnny Manziel’s attorney Bob Hinton accidentally sent an incriminating text to the Associated Press, revealing that Manziel is seeking a plea deal in his domestic violence case. He also indicated Manziel may have spent over $1,000 at a head shop just hours after being the victim of a hit-and-run accident. Hinton has been removed from the case … It’s been five weeks since Tom Brady formally asked the Second U.S. District Court of Appeals to rehear his case after having his Deflategate suspension upheld. The court was expected to make a ruling in 3-6 weeks, so a resolution should be coming shortly … Speaking of Brady, Nate Washington couldn’t get on the same page with him during OTAs. Washington is in a battle with Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin for New England’s last wide receiver spot … Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com believes Carson Wentz will serve as the Eagles’ No. 3 quarterback this year behind Sam Bradford and backup Chase Daniel. Since teams usually only dress two quarterbacks, the No. 2 overall pick could spend his rookie year in street clothes … The NFL plans to interview Clay Matthews, James Harrison, Julius Peppers and Mike Neal in connection to PED accusations made in an Al-Jazeera report six months ago. Harrison said he’d only agree to the interview if it’s held at his home and Roger Goodell promises to attend … The Saints placed Kyle Wilson on season-ending injured reserve with a torn labrum. The former first-round pick will enter free agency after this season … Scott Bair of CSN Bay Area said Amari Cooper was “excellent” at OTAs. Cooper faded late in the season last year but still led all rookies with 1,070 receiving yards … Tarvaris Jackson was charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon for allegedly pulling a loaded gun on his wife and threatening to kill her. Jackson, who is currently a free agent, spent his last three seasons as Russell Wilson’s backup in Seattle … The Steelers released Shaun Suisham after he failed his physical last week. Suisham subsequently announced his retirement after 11 NFL seasons… Sammy Watkins (foot surgery) previously said he’d be back for the start of training camp but now he isn’t as certain. “Hopefully I’ll be back,” said Watkins. “If not, then cool. Get ready for the first game” … Calvin Johnson has no regrets about his retirement and knew all along that 2015 would be his final season. He’ll retire with the 27th-most receiving yards in NFL history … J.J. Watt made an appearance on Jimmy Fallon Friday night. They smashed eggs over each other’s heads. You know, the usual talk show stuff … Colts owner Jim Irsay paid $137,500 for Prince’s Yellow Cloud guitar at an auction in Beverly Hills this past weekend. He bought Ringo Star’s drum set for $2 million a few months ago.
