2016 Fantasy Football: Carolina Panthers Team Outlook – Scout
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had their best season in franchise history in 2015. They went 15-1 with their second Super Bowl appearance. Carolina has made the playoffs in each of the last three years with a 34-13-1 record over this period. Their growth was helped by strength on both sides of the ball, but they made the biggest step forward offensively. The Panthers scored the most points in the league (500 – 31.2 per game), which was 161 more points than 2014 (339). Even with a higher volume of points scored, Carolina only ranked 11th in the league in offensive yards gained. Ron Rivera returns for his six seasons as the head coach. He has a 47-32-1 record with three playoff berths. Mike Shula will make the offensive calls for the fourth straight year. Mike has been in Carolina’s system for the last six years. The Panthers finished 6th in the league in defensive yards allowed and points allowed (308). They improved by 66 points from 2014 (374). Overall, this team had a net gain of 227 points from last year. Sean McDermott has been in charge of the Panthers’ defense for the previous five seasons. He has 15 years of coaching experience in the NFL. It will be interesting to see the possible decline of defense due to losing top CB Josh Norman.
Offense
The Panthers attempted the most rushes (525) in the league in 2015, which made up 50.5 percent of their offensive plays. This team was built on running the ball with a strong defense. With Kelvin Benjamin back in the starting lineup, Cam may offer more upside in the passing game.
Quarterback
http://www.scout.com/player/70731-cam-newton?s=532
Cam Newton (QB) – For the first time in his career, Cam was able to make consistent big plays in the passing game. He averaged a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt, which was 1.6 yards more than 2014. His completion rate (59.7) fell in line with his career average (59.5) while continuing to rank below the league average in passing attempts per game (31.0). His passing yards (3837) had growth over 2013 (3379) and 2014 (3127 – 14 games), but Newton had more success throwing the ball in his first two years in the league (4051 and 3869). His best value came in TDs (35 passing and 10 rushing). Cam set a career high in rushing attempts (132), but a career low in yards per carry (4.8). Over 78 games in his career, he has 43 rushing TDs. Newton had three 300 yard passing games and eight games with three TDs or more. All in all, 2015 was a great season especially when you consider Cam had his success with really below league average talent at the wide receiver position. With a healthy Kelvin Benjamin and a step forward in play by Devin Funchess, Newton should offer more upside in passing yards. His TD production doesn’t seem repeatable as the stars just seem to align as far as schedule. Cam has an excellent chance of setting a career-high in passing yards with continued success in rushing production. I would consider 35+ TDs a reachable area based on his overall talent on the offensive and his ability to make plays with his legs.
Editor’s note: SCOUT Fantasy went straight to the source in the SCOUT network whom is closest to the Carolina Panthers, Brandon Croce (@BrandonCroce) from PanthersInsider.com (@PanthersOnScout).
Scout Fantasy: Cam Newton went off last year, which was a surprise considering the Fantasy community was predicting doom and gloom after Kelvin Benjamin went down. Do you feel a step back statistically is inevitable? Would you draft Cam as the first QB off the board in your Fantasy draft?
Brandon Croce: Cam Newton had an incredible season last year with 45 total touchdowns and one that earned him the league MVP. However, I would not draft Cam Newton as the first quarterback off the board. The reason being that the Panthers offense is a run-heavy scheme. I think a case can be made for Newton to be the first quarterback and it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad pick. When I look at quarterbacks, I like to find the ones who play in an offense with a high volume of pass attempts.
Other options: Derek Anderson, Joe Webb
Running Back
http://www.scout.com/player/36666-jonathan-stewart?s=532
Jonathan Stewart (RB) – The days of hoping for upside from Stewart looks to be numbered. He set career high in rushing attempts (242) leading to his second best season in the NFL as far as rushing yards (989). Jon averaged 4.1 yards per rush as his offensive line isn’t an edge. On the passing side, he only had 16 catches for 99 yards with a TD. His TD production (7) has never approached his success in 2008 (10) and 2009 (11). Jon’s regular season was cut short after Week 13 due to a left foot injury that led to three missed games. Stewart aggravated his foot injury in the Super Bowl leading to continued discomfort in the offseason. The Panthers expect him to be healthy by the start of the season, but they will limit his work over the summer to keep him on a positive direction. He averaged almost 20 touches per game last year, which is a substantial opportunity. I don’t trust him at all due to his history of foot issues. Last year the Panthers’ RBs had 390 rushes for 1666 yards and 10 TDs plus 52 catches for 356 yards and four TDs on 63 targets. If healthy, Stewart has a chance at 1100+ yards with mid-tier TDs and minimal action in the passing game.
http://www.scout.com/player/122689-cameron-artis-payne?s=532
Cameron Artis-Payne (RB) – In his only full season of work with Auburn, Cameron ran for 1608 yards on 303 carries with 13 rushing TDs. He also caught 13 passes for 147 yards. CAP doesn’t attack the line of scrimmage when given the ball. He tends to wait for daylight, which hurts his timing to hit possible holes to the second level of the defense. Artis-Payne will run with power and some wiggle in the open field. With a weak offensive line, Cameron is going to deliver many carries with minimal gains. In his rookie season in the NFL, the Panthers gave him 50 touches for 241 yards with a TD and five catches. He gained 4.1 yards per rush, which was the identical total as Stewart. Cameron has enough talent to offer some upside if given the opportunity. He’s made an effort to get in better shape in the offseason. With a chance to start, Artis-Payne will have limited value in the passing game while Newton continues to be a threat to steal TDs. I view him as a backend flier as RB5 or RB6 in 12 teams leagues.
Scout Fantasy: Newton vultured more than his fair share of goal-line TDs away from Jonathan Stewart, but my concern in 2016 for Stewart is actually the potential for a split backfield with Cameron Artis-Payne. The second-year back figures to assume a more involved role. How do you envision the division of carries this season between Stewart and his RB teammates?
Brandon Croce: I envisioned this split last year after the Panthers drafted Cameron Artis-Payne. The coaching staff has always had that two running back approach with Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and thought Artis-Payne could step into William’s role. It makes sense that the second-year running back is more involved this year, especially with how Stewart missed the end of the regular season with an injury. I still expect Stewart to be the featured back and should still see a majority of the carries.
Other options: Brandon Wegher, Fozzy Whittaker, Jalen Simmons
Wide Receiver
http://www.scout.com/player/133824-kelvin-benjamin?s=532
Kelvin Benjamin (WR) – Kelvin had a short college resume at age 23 coming into the NFL. Benjamin caught 84 passes in his two seasons at Florida State for 1506 yards and 19 TDs. Kelvin is a physical WR, who has a huge edge in size (6’5″ and 240 Lbs.) with below average WR speed and no quickness. In essence, he is a TE playing the WR position. Benjamin will out jump most defenders at the goal line to win a high percentage of contested balls, but his hands aren’t elite at this point in his career. Kelvin almost has a Larry Fitzgerald feel to him, but he doesn’t have Larry’s route running skills. As big as he is, Benjamin could be even better when he adds more strength. His slow feet will hurt his release off the line plus the Panthers don’t have any other elite threats in the passing game. His resume has the look of Vincent Jackson. Benjamin played better than expected in his rookie season with his success being created by volume. Kelvin only caught 50.3 percent of his 145 targets (73 catches) for 1008 yards with nine TDs. He had seven games with double-digit targets and five games with more than five catches. His catch rate will never be elite with Cam throwing the ball and Benjamin seeing a ton of double coverage due to weakness at the other WR positions. He missed all of the 2015 season due to a torn ACL in his left knee last August. In 2015, the Panthers completed 158 passes to the WR position for 2297 yards and 22 TDs on 289 targets. Kelvin may have a top 10 opportunity as far as targets with his ultimate upside coming with more success catching the ball. With 150 targets and a 60 percent catch rate, Benjamin would be in line for a 90 catch year. I expect 80+ catches for 1100+ yards with double digit TDs. Kelvin is a solid WR2 fantasy option in 2016 with a chance at 250 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
http://www.scout.com/player/148319-devin-funchess?s=532
Devin Funchess (WR) – Over the last two years at Michigan, Devin caught 111 passes for 1481 yards and 10 TDs. Funchess had only two 100 yard receiving games in his 11 starts in 2014 and eight games with five catches or more. His game has a lot in common with WR Kelvin Benjamin. Devin is a hands catcher, but he will fight for many of his chances due to his lack of explosive speed. He will box out defenders at the goal line, which gives him value in TDs. Even with plus size (6’4” and 232 lbs.), Funchess needs to add some upper body strength to help create a quicker window vs. press cover. His game lacks big play ability. I expect him to be used in the slot to work the middle areas of the field. At the goal line, the Panthers can shift him to the outside where Devin will be given chances to win jump balls. Carolina won’t attempt a ton of passes and the 3rd option in the passing game only has a 50 catch opportunity. I only see TE production from a player with a WR starting tag. In his rookie season, Funchess had 31 catches for 473 yards and five TDs on 63 targets (49.2 percent catch rate). His best game of the season came in Week 16 (7/120/1), which just shows his potential upside. Devin has a chance at 50+ catches for 700+ yards and a handful of TDs.
http://www.scout.com/player/27242-ted-ginn?s=532
Ted Ginn (WR) – Injuries and weakness at the wide position led to Ginn getting an explosive opportunity in 2015 even with limited chances. He set a career high in TDs (10) with solid production in catches (44) and yards (739) on 97 targets. His catch rate (45.4) is a huge liability, but Ted does get open deep down field. He had 10 catches for 20 yards or more and five catches for 40 yards or more. Ginn had a great three-game run from Week 12 to Week 14 (13 catches for 285 yards and four TDs on 27 targets). His role will decline somewhat in 2016 with Benjamin back on the field. His speed is too important on the outside so Ted will still provide flash value in the right matches while being tough to time. I’m thinking 40 catches for 600 yards with five TDs as the WR3 for the Panthers.
Scout Fantasy: Do you think Kelvin Benjamin will live up to the hype (and numbers) he established after his rookie year? Project how many receptions, yards and TDs you foresee for Devin Funchess. And do you think Ted Ginn is the team’s No. 3 WR?
Brandon Croce: It is always hard to predict how a player will perform coming off an ACL injury. Luckily for Benjamin, it happened early in training camp, and he will have had over a year to recover from it. There is no question that he steps in as the team’s number one WR however I don’t expect him to see the same volume of targets he did as a rookie. This season, compared to 2014, the Panthers have much more depth at wide receiver and Newton should spread the ball around more. This doesn’t necessarily mean his stats will go down, but he will need to improve in drops, which was an issue for him in his first season. Benjamin was tied for the league lead in drops with 10 in 2014.
Devin Funchess is interesting because there isn’t really a clear role for him yet. He could step into the starting lineup on the outside or move inside and fill the void left by the release of Jerricho Cotchery. I don’t expect him to see a high volume of targets but could be near the top of the league in touchdowns. Last year, he had six touchdowns over the final 12 games and only had a total of 36 receptions on the season. I believe Funchess right now is somewhere in the third to fourth option range behind Benjamin, Greg Olsen and then possibly Ted Ginn Jr.. I am going to predict that Funchess has a similar stat line to his rookie season with 40 receptions, 600 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
Ted Ginn fantasy value has a big question mark entering this year. The explosive wide receiver had a career high 10 touchdowns last year but there is sure to be some shuffling in the depth chart this year. Depending on where the coaching staff puts Funchess in the formation will determine Ginn’s value in fantasy football. If he is on the outside, he very well could come close to his 10 touchdown mark in 2015 with defenses needing to devote so much attention to Benjamin and Olsen. If he moves inside, he should see a higher volume of targets and would be more valuable in PPR leagues.
Other options: Philly Brown, Stephen Hill, Brenton Bersin, Kevin Norwood, Cobi Hamilton, Damiere Byrd, Keyarris Garrett, LaRon Byrd, Tobais Palmer
Tight End
http://www.scout.com/player/16095-greg-olsen?s=532
Greg Olsen (TE) – Olsen almost finished with identical production in 2015 (77/1105/7 on 124 targets) as 2014 (84/1008/6 on 123 targets). Greg has scored five TDs or more in his last eight seasons (49 in 142 career games). The injury to Kelvin Benjamin probably led to tougher coverage in many games thus a slight decline in his catch rate (62.1). He had five games with double-digit targets and three games with over 100 yards receiving. Two of his best games came against the Saints (8/134/2 and 9/129). Last year Cam completed 97 passes for 1203 yards and nine TDs in 152 targets to the TE position. His floor is really high with three straight years with 70+ catches and two straight with 1000+ yards receiving. Greg should have a baseline of 80+ catches for 1000+ yards and mid-tier TDs.
Scout Fantasy: Greg Olsen has been one of the most consistent Panthers on the team and really, one of the most dependable TEs in Fantasy Football for nearly a decade. Only his age is a factor, yet the last two seasons have been his best statistically. Tell us how you view Olsen and if there’s any reason whatsoever to not draft him or even think about not drafting him.
Brandon Croce: Obviously, Rob Gronkowski is considered the top tight end in fantasy football but I value consistency in my players, and there hasn’t been a player more consistent that Olsen. In 10 games last season, Olsen caught either five passes or had a touchdown reception and more importantly hasn’t missed a game in eight seasons. The health of Olsen along with Brady potentially missing the first four games of the season, I believe a strong case could be made for Olsen being the top tight end in 2016.
Other options: Ed Dickson, Scott Simonson, Beau Sandland, Marcus Lucas
Kicker
Graham Gano (K) – The Panthers were the highest scoring team in the league in 2015, which led to a league-high 59 TDs. Gano missed three of his extra-point tries while making 30 of his 36 field goal chances (83.3 percent). His leg has hit or miss value from 50 yards or longer (14-for-24 in his career and 3-for-7 in 2014 and 2015). His field goal opportunity last season was almost identical as 2014 (29-for-35). The Panthers will move the ball giving Graham a chance to be a top 10 kicker in 2016.
Free Agency
The only player of value lost in the offseason was CB Josh Norman, who was one of the best cover corners in the league. His price tag was going to be high, so the Panthers decided to go in another direction.
DE Jared Allen decided to retire. S Roman Harper, CB Charles Tillman, and CB Cortland Finnegan all became unrestricted free agents after delivering negative results in 2015.
Carolina only added DE Paul Soliai in the offseason. Paul ranks a below average player with age (32) not on his side.
Draft
Carolina only had five picks in this season draft, and they attacked the loss at the CB position by selecting James Bradberry, Darryl Worley, and Zack Sanchez in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round. Bradberry will bring size (6’1” and 211 lbs.) to the cornerback position. James has playable speed and quickness while his technique in transition in coverage needs improvement. He tends to think rather than reacting leading to possible risk for big plays. Bradberry should add value in run support. Worley is another CB with size (6’1” and 204 lbs.). He looks like a playmaker with an edge in athletic ability and hands, but his base skill set coverage isn’t strong enough in coverage at this point in his career. Daryl looks to be a liability defending the run as well. Sanchez may have the most upside to start early in his career as his skill set looks to be more transferable at the next level. He can’t match the previous two CB in size (5’11” and 185 Lbs.), but his technique looks more advanced while also owning playmaking ability. Zack will work better as a nickel corner.
With their first pick in this season’s draft, the Panther tried to shore up their interior line with DT Vernon Butler. He projects an upside run stopper with enough athletic ability to rush the QB. Butler has a solid motor with more upside when he develops better counter moves.
In the seventh round, Carolina added TE Beau Sandland. He offers solid strength and athleticism, but his skill set looks raw. His route running needs growth while improving his technique as a blocker. In his first year in the league, Sandland will work as a complimentary TE option in the deep passing game.
Offensive Line
Carolina has the second best rushing attack in the league thanks to the high success by Cam Newton as a runner (132/636/10). They finished with 2282 rushing yards while gaining 4.3 yards per rush with 19 rushing TDs. The Panthers averaged 32.9 rushes per game, which was 25.1 percent higher than the league average (26.3). Carolina had 43 negative runs and 64 runs of 10 yards or more.
The Panthers had 35 passing TDs in 2015, but they finished 24th in the league in passing yards (3589). They had 10 Ints and their offensive line allowed 33 sacks and 61 QB hits.
C Ryan Kalil was an exceptional run blocker, but he was beaten too many times in the pass rush. They also had strength at both guard positions. RG Trai Turner was their best player in pass protection with strength in blocking in the run game. His game showed growth in 2015. LG Andrew Norwell offered an edge in the run game with just about league average success in pass blocking.
LT Michael Oher could have been the worst starting run blocking player in the league as his position in 2015, but he did grade above the league average in the passing game. Oher is a former first round draft pick (2009), but he hasn’t realized his expected upside. The right tackle position looks like an open battle between Daryl Williams and Mike Remmers. Of the two, Remmers has the weaker resume just by failing in all areas in 2015 as a starter. Williams saw minimal action last year after the Panthers drafted him in the fourth round due to an early season knee issue. Daryl will have the most value as a run blocker.
This line doesn’t have elite talent, and their success would be much lower if the Panthers didn’t have an impact running QB.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing TDs touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing TDs (TDS).
This information is based on 2015, which will work as our starting point for 2016. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2014 Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2014.
2014 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2015 Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2014.
2015 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2016 Adjustment is based on the 2015 league average and the 2015 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat and the basis for strength of schedule.
Carolina has a slightly favorable schedule for their rushing offense. They have three tough matchups (DEN, ARI, and SEA) and five winnable games (SF, IND, SD, WAS, and NO).
They have two games against team’s strength in their passing defense (DEN and SEA). The Panther look to have six games with risk in their pass defense (SF, NO, LAR, OAK X 2, and WAS).
Defense Schedule
The Panthers’ run defense has seven tough matchups (MIN, TB X 2, ARI, LAR, KC, and SEA) plus eight games that look favorable (SF, ATL X 2, NO X 2, OAK, SD, and WAS).
Carolina will be tested in the passing game with seven games vs. teams with strength throwing the ball (NO X 2, ARI, SD, ATL X 2, and WAS). They have four matchups with weakness in their passing offense (SF, MIN, LAR, and KC).
Defense
The Panthers played the lead in most games leading to their opponents attempting only 22.8 rushes per game (3rd lowest total in the league). They finished 4th in rushing yards allowed (1415) with 11 TDs. Ball carriers gained 3.9 yards per rush.
Teams attempted 650 passes per game against Carolina, but they still only allowed 3752 passing yards (11th). Opponents gained only 6.2 yards per pass attempts with 21 TDs, 24 Ints, and 44 sacks.
Carolina will have some work to do to replace the loss of Josh Norman at cornerback. The two returning options with a chance to start will be CB Bene Benwikere and CB Robert McClain. Both players have high risk in coverage with Benwikere being serviceable in support. The Panthers need one of their incoming rookies to make a step forward to solidify their secondary. I expect early season growing pains leading to some long touchdowns. S Kurt Coleman ended up being a nice addition before the 2015 season. He played well in both run and pass coverage. S Tre Boston played his way out of a starting job last year while grading as a league starting average player in coverage with some risk defending the run.
LB Luke Kuechly finished as the best player at his position in 2015 with elite value in both run support and pass coverage. His only shortfall was his ability to rush the QB (one sack). Luke did miss three games early in the season due to a concussion. Kuechly had offseason surgery to repair a tear in his labrum in his left shoulder. LB Thomas Davis had risk against the run while adding value in coverage while setting a career high in sacks (5.5). LB Shaq Thompson split playing time with LB A.J. Klein with both players finishing with league average value.
Their best defender on the defensive line was DT Kawann Short. He set a career high in sacks (11) with strength in run support. DT Star Lotulelei had regression as run defender in his last two years in the league with his failure in the pass rush in 2015 pointing to a rotational role this year. DE Kony Ealy struggled as a run defender in his second season in the league with five sacks. DE Charles Johnson missed seven in 2015 due to a hamstring issue. He finished as a league average starting defender with only one sack after recording 52.5 sacks over the previous five years.
There is talent at the first and the second levels of the defense with potentially high risk in pass coverage in their secondary. Turnovers and sacks create Fantasy value so the Panthers’ defense may fall short of expectation as they still have a high ranking based on their 2016 success.
