Offseason Low Down: Panthers Fantasy Preview
Panthers Year in Review
2015 Pass Attempts Rank: 27th (501)
2015 Rush Attempts Rank: 1st (526)
2015 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 8th (1,060)
2015 Yards Per Play Rank: 13th (5.5)
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Cam Newton
RB: Jonathan Stewart
WR: Kelvin Benjamin
WR: Ted Ginn
WR: Devin Funchess
TE: Greg Olsen
LT: Michael Oher
LG: Andrew Norwell
C: Ryan Kalil
RG: Trai Turner
RT: Mike Remmers
Passing Game Outlook
Cam Newton has finished as a top-four fantasy quarterback in 4-of-5 NFL seasons, the outlier being an injury-marred 2014 campaign. En route to league MVP honors last year, Newton reached new heights despite the preseason loss of Kelvin Benjamin (ACL). After opening the previous two years limiting Newton’s rushing exposure to preserve his health, OC Mike Shula fully embraced Cam’s dual-threat game. On a career-high 132 carries, Newton responded with 10 rushing TDs on top of a career-best 35 passing scores. Including playoffs, Cam accounted for a whopping 50 touchdowns and outscored quarterback runner-up Tom Brady by 50 fantasy points. Shula has also embraced faster tempo, implementing no-huddle and giving Newton pre-snap freedom. Whereas the Panthers ranked 26th in plays per game in 2013, they’ve finished top nine in each of the last two years. Even with Benjamin back, pass-TD regression is inevitable after Cam led the league in touchdown rate (7.1%) last season. His previous career TD rate was 4.3%. Newton should be the first quarterback taken in fantasy drafts, though owners who select him in the top three rounds of one-QB leagues will be reaching based on the lowered value of the position.
As his Average Draft Position settled into the third round, Kelvin Benjamin was an overvalued fantasy commodity at this time last year before tearing his left ACL midway through training camp. Despite missing his entire sophomore season, Benjamin’s ADP hasn’t moved much. He’s being selected in the mid-third round as the WR15 off the board. Although his rookie year is commonly gazed upon with fond memories, Benjamin ranked 101st of 110 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ catch-rate metric (51.4 percent) that season, and finished second in the NFL in drops (11). Four of Benjamin’s nine touchdowns came with Carolina trailing by 24-plus points. Benjamin’s 2.4 yards-after-catch per reception average ranked 102nd among wideouts. Two of his five 80-plus yard games occurred with Derek Anderson at quarterback. Benjamin finished as the overall WR16 in fantasy points and WR18 in points per game in 2014. At 6-foot-5, 240 with nearly 35-inch arms, Benjamin offers a humongous catch radius that can offset some of Cam’s erratic passing tendencies. The Panthers are a much better team than when Benjamin broke into the league, however, and have more target-commanding presences in a run-first offense. Considering his inflated cost, I don’t anticipate owning Benjamin in many leagues this year.
A sometimes-painfully-raw second-round pick out of Michigan, Devin Funchess began his rookie year in accordingly painful fashion. His catch total (6) equaled his drop total (6) through Week 7, averaging 4.1 yards per target. The light flipped on for Funchess thereafter, securing 25-of-43 targets for 391 yards with five touchdowns, only two drops, and a 9.1 yards-per-target average in Carolina’s final ten regular season games. Funchess never had a realistic chance at rookie-year fantasy relevance in a four-way wideout committee that also included Jerricho Cotchery, Ted Ginn, and Corey Brown, but Funchess’ steady improvement is notable. As is his strong spring, where Funchess was named the “star of OTAs” by Panthers beat writers. Only 22 years old, Funchess is younger than incoming rookies Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Sterling Shepard, and Leonte Carroo. While Benjamin’s return severely curbs his target projection, Funchess could still exceed his 11th-/12th-round ADP by beating out Brown and Ginn for No. 2 wideout duties and carrying over his second-half efficiency into 2016.
Carolina’s wideout corps is rounded out by low-volume role player Corey Brown, drop-plagued shot-play specialist Ted Ginn, and enigmatic underachiever Stephen Hill, the latter of whom WRs coach Ricky Proehl is an especially big fan. Although Ginn’s game lacks variety, he is the safest bet from this group to earn a permanent spot in the receiver rotation. A Panther in 2013 and 2015, Ginn has enjoyed the best two seasons of his career with Newton and offers tactical value with 4.38 speed coming off a ten-touchdown campaign. Still, Ginn’s playing time, targets (97), and receptions (44) are all destined to sink with Benjamin returning and Funchess on an upward trajectory. Ginn is a much better late-round pick in best ball than re-draft leagues.
After establishing career bests across the board in 2014 (84-1,008-6), Greg Olsen looked to be a regression candidate entering 2015 as the arrow was seemingly pointing up on Benjamin and the Panthers invested a second-round pick into Funchess. Instead, Benjamin tore his ACL, Funchess got stuck in a four-pronged WRBC, and Olsen re-exploded for career bests in yards (1,104) and touchdowns (7), finishing as the fantasy TE4 for the second straight year. That was despite being tackled inside the opposing two-yard line on five separate occasions. Now 31 years old, Olsen again appears poised to lose volume with better pieces around him. Olsen’s on-field relationship with Newton remains a bankable plus, though, and he is a far more efficient weapon than Benjamin with a far more secure role than Funchess. I’m a fan of targeting Olsen in the sixth and seventh rounds of fantasy drafts. I’d probably look elsewhere in the fifth.
Running Game Outlook
Once written off as too brittle to last as an NFL feature back, Jonathan Stewart has turned in back-to-back seasons of 13 games played and appeared in 16 of Carolina’s 19 contests last year, including the playoffs. He logged bellcow work in a Panthers offense that led the NFL in rushing attempts, averaging 20.6 touches per game before a Week 14 foot sprain cost Stewart the final three regular season weeks. Stewart returned to average 4.36 yards per carry with three touchdowns in the Panthers’ three postseason affairs. More so than his injury history, Stewart’s scant receiving involvement and limited scoring-position usage put a lid on his fantasy potential. Stewart has not scored more than six rushing touchdowns in a season since 2009 and ranked 67th among running backs in targets last year. While Stewart’s assured workload gives him every-week RB2/flex value, he stands little chance of becoming a difference-making RB1.
The Panthers made no notable offseason running back additions and will return Cameron Artis-Payne, Fozzy Whittaker, and Mike Tolbert behind Stewart. When J-Stew missed Weeks 15-17 last year, Artis-Payne handled touch totals of 16, 6, and 6 compared to Tolbert’s 5, 4, and 11, and Whittaker’s 4, 7, and 0. A 2015 fifth-round pick out of Auburn, Artis-Payne is a classic JAG with 39th-percentile SPARQ athleticism and a pedestrian, run-of-the-mill skill set who would lose touches to Tolbert and Whittaker if Stewart missed time. While Artis-Payne remains a low-ceiling Dynasty hold, he is an unappealing handcuff in re-draft leagues for J-Stew owners.
2016 Vegas Win Total
Last year’s Panthers annihilated their Vegas Win Total (8.5) en route to a dominant 15-1 finish and Super Bowl 50 appearance in which Carolina entered favored by 3.5-4.0 points but was upset by Denver 24-10. This year’s Panthers have a 10.5-game Win Total, tied with the Packers, Seahawks, and Steelers for tops in the NFL. Before the league’s schedule release, Warren Sharp assessed Carolina with the NFL’s fourth easiest 2016 slate based on opponent Win Totals. The Panthers are presently favored in 13 of their first 15 games, with exceptions in Week 1 at Denver (-1.5) and Week 13 in Seattle (-3). Carolina’s biggest (only?) roster concern is cornerback, where they’ll put faith in DC Sean McDermott‘s Cover 3 to help mitigate the loss of top CB Josh Norman. When taking the over on a big Win Total like the Panthers’, the margin for error is slim. Based on their soft schedule, in-place personnel, and top-to-bottom health of the organization, however, I think the best bet is indeed on Carolina winning 11-12 games and the NFC South crown for a fourth straight year.
