The Numbers Game: Rookie Retrospective

With the NBA draft coming on June 23, it’s worth exploring rookie’s historical fantasy values. It’s always tempting to reach for unquantified talent, in the hopes that you’ll acquire the next Karl-Anthony Towns, but the data suggests that KAT is a rare breed indeed — his 2015-16 season was the best fantasy performance for any rookie in the past decade.

The information in this column is derived from last week’s survey of fantasy values (9-cat) over the past 10 years, which aggregated the stats for every player in a given season. To qualify, players must have averaged at least 20 minutes and appeared in at least 40 games. This eliminated plenty of rookies from the equation, mostly due to the minutes-played requirement. Prominent players who failed to make the cut as rookies include Paul Millsap, Draymond Green, C.J. McCollum, Rudy Gobert, Gorgui Dieng, Otto Porter, Khris Middleton, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Nic Batum, Danilo Gallinari and Kyle Lowry.

Over the 10 seasons in question, 124 rookies qualified for both minutes and games played, an average of 12.4 per season. Of that number, however, only 58 players finished in the top-150 during their rookie year, a mere 4.8 per season. A comparison of rookies vs. total population yields the following:

	Qualifying Players	Qualifying Rookies
Total #	2,159	124
Top-150 #	1,500	58
Top-150 %	69.5%	46.8%

That’s a gap of more than 20% in the rate of qualifying players who crack the top-150 in a given season, so already we see that rookies face an uphill battle. The picture is even bleaker when you measure rookies by percentile of fantasy value. This pits all 2,159 players against one another, based on cumulative 9-cat values, and determines what percentile of the population a given player falls into. For instance, the elite players in the 100th percentile group are Stephen Curry (twice), Kevin Durant (four times), Chris Paul (twice), LeBron James (three times), Anthony Davis (once), James Harden (once) and Kawhi Leonard (once).

At the other end of the spectrum, qualifying players who fall below the 5th percentile include Sebastian Telfair, Tony Wroten, Antoine Walker, Eddy Curry and Lance Stephenson. Four rookies also make the ignominious cut — Tristan Thompson (2011-12), Jerami Grant (2014-15), Adam Morrison (2006-07) and Austin Rivers (2012-13). Rivers’ rookie season emerges as the single worst fantasy campaign among the 2,159 players/seasons under consideration.

The point is that, whereas the general population of players is split evenly at the 50th percentile, only 22 out of 124 qualifying rookies are at or above that mark. That’s just 17.7% of rookies who best the population at large, a woeful average that provides another reason to be leery of first-year players on draft day.

With those dismal metrics explained, it must be mentioned that not all rookies are destined to flop for fantasy purposes. Karl-Anthony Towns is a perfect recent example. He averaged 32 minutes last year, without missing a single game, and his impressive across-the-board stats put him in the 97th percentile over the past decade. Stephen Curry‘s rookie year was nearly as good — he missed just two games and finished in the 95th percentile, even though he averaged “only” 2.1 three-pointers per game.

Shying away from rookies is also an impossibility in dynasty leagues, where even a poor first season could mask a bright future — D’Angelo Russell finished in just the 28th percentile last year, but has all the tools to be a franchise fantasy PG for the next decade. Other examples of slow rookie campaigns include James Harden (31st percentile), LaMarcus Aldridge (28th percentile) and Russell Westbrook (32nd percentile).

In terms of the positions for top-150 rookies over the past decade, we find a somewhat lopsided split with point guards and power forwards heavily favored.

Point Guard – 16

Shooting Guard – 12

Small Forward – 10

Power Forward – 16

Center – 4

This suggests that PGs and PFs might fare better, on the whole, than their counterparts at other positions, but the sample size is too small to say anything with conviction — the real tests are how NBA-ready a player is, and how many opportunities they’ll receive on their new team.

Speaking of opportunities, it’s worth mentioning that no qualifying rookie in the past 10 years has posted a usage rate higher than 29.4% (Kyrie Irving in 2011-12). The top five is rounded out by Kevin Durant (28.5%), Michael Beasley (27.9%), DeMarcus Cousins (27.6%) and Jahlil Okafor (27.4%). Of those players mentioned only Michael Beasley had a positive z-score for turnovers, and those usage rates would be considerably lower if turnovers were excluded.

These rather pessimistic findings aren’t intended to scare fantasy owners away from drafting rookies. I’m simply presenting key stats, and no amount of historical generalities will take the place of proper analysis of individual rookies — how they fared in college or overseas, how prepared they’ll be for the speed, athleticism and playbooks of the NBA, how their game translates to fantasy, how many minutes they’re likely to see as rookies, etc. With that in mind, I’ll close with a table showing all 124 qualifying rookies over the past decade. Many were disappointments, some were shockingly good, and they’re all here for you to peruse:

Name	YEAR	USAGE	Overall 9-cat Value	Overall Percentile	Individual Season Rank
Karl-Anthony Towns	2015-16	24.9%	5.71	97.2%	16
Stephen Curry	2009-10	22.0%	4.99	95.2%	13
Anthony Davis	2012-13	21.9%	3.55	88.1%	25
Kristaps Porzingis	2015-16	24.5%	2.76	82.0%	43
Kyrie Irving	2011-12	29.4%	2.46	79.2%	30
Brook Lopez	2008-09	20.4%	2.22	76.7%	53
Damian Lillard	2012-13	24.2%	2.07	75.2%	46
Brandon Roy	2006-07	23.2%	1.86	72.9%	50
Nerlens Noel	2014-15	17.5%	1.67	70.7%	57
Eric Gordon	2008-09	20.8%	1.59	69.8%	65
Tyreke Evans	2009-10	26.6%	1.45	68.2%	65
Kevin Durant	2007-08	28.5%	1.26	65.9%	75
O.J. Mayo	2008-09	24.7%	1.09	63.7%	76
Ricky Rubio	2011-12	18.8%	1.08	63.5%	56
Mario Chalmers	2008-09	16.4%	1.04	63.0%	77
John Wall	2010-11	24.0%	0.69	58.6%	84
Kawhi Leonard	2011-12	14.3%	0.42	55.0%	70
Landry Fields	2010-11	13.1%	0.30	53.3%	89
Michael Carter-Williams	2013-14	25.7%	0.24	52.5%	89
Brandon Jennings	2009-10	26.6%	0.12	50.9%	97
Al Horford	2007-08	15.5%	0.12	50.9%	92
Derrick Rose	2008-09	22.8%	0.03	49.8%	113
Marcus Thornton	2009-10	25.5%	-0.03	48.9%	101
Kenneth Faried	2011-12	18.9%	-0.11	47.8%	87
Marc Gasol	2008-09	18.5%	-0.13	47.5%	120
Rudy Fernandez	2008-09	18.5%	-0.21	46.5%	121
Bradley Beal	2012-13	22.7%	-0.28	45.5%	113
Greg Monroe	2010-11	15.5%	-0.30	45.3%	116
Isaiah Thomas	2011-12	19.8%	-0.44	43.4%	99
Victor Oladipo	2013-14	24.6%	-0.57	41.7%	116
Nikola Mirotic	2014-15	22.8%	-0.79	38.8%	114
Myles Turner	2015-16	21.1%	-0.84	38.2%	121
Jahlil Okafor	2015-16	27.4%	-0.84	38.2%	122
Darren Collison	2009-10	23.3%	-0.85	38.0%	129
Jorge Garbajosa	2006-07	15.2%	-0.86	37.9%	108
Klay Thompson	2011-12	26.1%	-0.90	37.4%	108
Chandler Parsons	2011-12	17.1%	-0.94	36.9%	111
D.J. Augustin	2008-09	21.6%	-1.01	36.1%	142
Jordan Clarkson	2014-15	23.1%	-1.08	35.1%	122
Kevin Love	2008-09	21.4%	-1.09	35.0%	144
Andrew Wiggins	2014-15	22.8%	-1.11	34.8%	125
Andre Drummond	2012-13	17.2%	-1.16	34.2%	131
Anthony Morrow	2008-09	17.8%	-1.18	33.9%	149
Ed Davis	2010-11	13.4%	-1.20	33.6%	139
Iman Shumpert	2011-12	18.3%	-1.23	33.3%	121
Jonas Jerebko	2009-10	15.9%	-1.27	32.8%	139
Willie Cauley-Stein	2015-16	13.2%	-1.31	32.4%	140
Russell Westbrook	2008-09	26.3%	-1.31	32.3%	152
Taj Gibson	2009-10	16.4%	-1.31	32.3%	141
James Harden	2009-10	20.4%	-1.38	31.5%	142
Andrea Bargnani	2006-07	22.5%	-1.38	31.5%	127
Trey Burke	2013-14	21.8%	-1.39	31.4%	140
Ryan Kelly	2013-14	15.7%	-1.42	31.0%	141
Marcus Smart	2014-15	15.2%	-1.47	30.4%	139
Michael Beasley	2008-09	27.9%	-1.66	28.2%	163
LaMarcus Aldridge	2006-07	19.6%	-1.66	28.1%	136
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	2012-13	18.2%	-1.67	28.0%	150
Courtney Lee	2008-09	15.5%	-1.68	27.9%	164
Thaddeus Young	2007-08	17.4%	-1.70	27.7%	142
D’Angelo Russell	2015-16	24.0%	-1.71	27.7%	155
Maurice Harkless	2012-13	15.7%	-1.71	27.6%	152
Kemba Walker	2011-12	25.2%	-1.97	24.8%	141
Paul George	2010-11	18.0%	-1.99	24.6%	165
Luc Mbah a Moute	2008-09	14.6%	-2.00	24.4%	170
Rudy Gay	2006-07	21.2%	-2.03	24.2%	150
Joakim Noah	2007-08	15.1%	-2.06	23.8%	153
Devin Booker	2015-16	23.4%	-2.10	23.4%	164
Wesley Johnson	2010-11	16.8%	-2.17	22.6%	170
Elfrid Payton	2014-15	18.3%	-2.26	21.8%	167
Tim Hardaway Jr	2013-14	19.6%	-2.28	21.6%	171
Larry Nance	2015-16	12.6%	-2.30	21.4%	170
Jason Thompson	2008-09	18.8%	-2.31	21.3%	177
Jrue Holiday	2009-10	18.3%	-2.35	20.9%	169
Luis Scola	2007-08	20.3%	-2.42	20.3%	166
Juan Carlos Navarro	2007-08	21.1%	-2.44	20.0%	169
Kelly Olynyk	2013-14	21.2%	-2.44	20.0%	173
Dion Waiters	2012-13	26.5%	-2.48	19.7%	176
Jonny Flynn	2009-10	24.4%	-2.52	19.3%	176
Chase Budinger	2009-10	20.3%	-2.54	19.1%	178
Randy Foye	2006-07	23.0%	-2.56	18.9%	168
MarShon Brooks	2011-12	23.0%	-2.57	18.9%	162
Greg Oden	2008-09	19.4%	-2.58	18.7%	182
Yi Jianlian	2007-08	18.4%	-2.59	18.7%	174
Brandon Knight	2011-12	21.9%	-2.61	18.4%	165
Ty Lawson	2009-10	18.0%	-2.62	18.4%	181
Josh Richardson	2015-16	13.9%	-2.63	18.3%	182
Chris Singleton	2011-12	11.9%	-2.71	17.6%	172
Omri Casspi	2009-10	19.6%	-2.73	17.4%	186
Tyler Zeller	2012-13	16.1%	-2.73	17.4%	181
Rajon Rondo	2006-07	16.7%	-2.74	17.3%	174
Rodney Hood	2014-15	20.0%	-2.82	16.7%	182
Frank Kaminsky	2015-16	17.2%	-2.85	16.4%	189
DeMarcus Cousins	2010-11	27.6%	-2.86	16.3%	190
Al Thornton	2007-08	24.5%	-3.02	15.0%	184
K.J. A32McDaniels	2014-15	19.2%	-3.05	14.8%	187
Bojan Bogdanovic	2014-15	17.0%	-3.06	14.7%	188
Tarence Kinsey	2006-07	18.4%	-3.09	14.5%	181
Justise Winslow	2015-16	12.5%	-3.10	14.4%	192
Mike Conley	2007-08	19.7%	-3.19	13.7%	192
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2013-14	15.1%	-3.20	13.7%	196
Harrison Barnes	2012-13	17.7%	-3.23	13.4%	198
Brandon Rush	2008-09	16.5%	-3.27	13.1%	194
Kyle Weaver	2008-09	13.1%	-3.32	12.8%	197
Joe Ingles	2014-15	13.1%	-3.38	12.4%	200
Evan Turner	2010-11	17.1%	-3.47	11.8%	207
Jordan Crawford	2010-11	26.8%	-3.48	11.7%	208
DeMar DeRozan	2009-10	18.2%	-3.56	11.2%	201
Zach LaVine	2014-15	22.2%	-3.58	11.0%	207
Eric Bledsoe	2010-11	18.0%	-3.71	10.2%	214
Nate Wolters	2013-14	16.9%	-3.78	9.8%	204
Alexey Shved	2012-13	20.8%	-3.91	9.1%	205
Jeff Green	2007-08	19.7%	-3.93	9.0%	207
Stanley Johnson	2015-16	19.6%	-3.94	8.9%	213
Ben McLemore	2013-14	16.5%	-3.97	8.8%	207
Corey Brewer	2007-08	15.7%	-3.97	8.8%	208
Daequan Cook	2007-08	20.2%	-3.97	8.7%	209
Bismack Biyombo	2011-12	13.0%	-4.00	8.6%	202
Derrick Williams	2011-12	20.8%	-4.31	7.1%	210
Emmanuel Mudiay	2015-16	25.6%	-4.32	7.0%	215
Terrence Williams	2009-10	22.1%	-4.43	6.6%	214
Tristan Thompson	2011-12	19.7%	-5.04	4.3%	212
Jerami Grant	2014-15	17.1%	-5.11	4.1%	216
Adam Morrison	2006-07	22.4%	-5.50	3.1%	217
Austin Rivers	2012-13	16.9%	-7.16	0.8%	214