Fantasy Roundtable: Roundtable: Trading Places
This is the weekly Fantasy Roundtable, where the writers of Rotoworld Baseball let the readers of Rotoworld Baseball in on a quick staff discussion. It’s water cooler talk … that we’ve decided to publish. Look for it every Tuesday.
Drew Silva: I want to do a way-too-early trade deadline preview as we move into mid-June. Give me some players who are likely to get moved within the next six weeks and what could be the fantasy implications? A little difficult, I know, without having an idea where those players could be headed, but maybe we can give our readers a leg up on some situations that others aren’t currently paying much attention to …
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D.J. Short: With Jed Lowrie and Danny Valencia, the Athletics have a pair of position players who are strong candidates to traded before the August 1 deadline. Lowrie hasn’t provided much in the way of fantasy value this year, but he’s hitting .303 with a .354 on-base percentage and can play multiple infield positions. He could come in handy for multiple teams. Valencia is obviously the bigger prize and with another year of team control remaining, he isn’t going to come cheaply. The 31-year-old quietly owns a .379 wOBA since the start of last season. Only 14 hitters have been better in that time and he ranks above big names like Edwin Encarnacion, Kris Bryant, and Yoenis Cespedes. It’s fun to think what he could do if he’s traded to a hitter-friendly ballpark, though some of the most obvious fits (Mets, Indians, Royals) might not give him a significant boost in fantasy value.
As for possible in-house replacements for Lowrie and Valencia, the Athletics landed one last week when they acquired Arismendy Alcantara from the Cubs for Chris Coghlan. Alcantara has received some attention in fantasy leagues in the past, but he’s been buried over the past year or so with all of the great young talent rising past him in the Cubs’ organization. Still, he offers pop and speed and could slot in at second base. A’s prospect Matt Chapman is a name to keep an eye on in the minors for the long-term at third base, though he has slowed down significantly after a hot start to the season in Double-A. His strikeout percentage sits at 33 percent right now, so he obviously still has some work to do. There’s some nice pop there, though, and he is regarded as an excellent defender.
David Shovein: I think one player who is almost sure to be moved at the trade deadline is Jay Bruce. The Reds are in full rebuilding mode and Bruce’s contract only runs through this season, with a $12.5 million club option for 2017 ($1 million buyout). After a couple of down years, he’s having a resurgent season at the plate, slashing .272/.331/.576 with 14 homers and 46 RBI. He’s becoming a bit of a liability defensively in right field, and would probably be best served as a designated hitter in the American League, but this may be the top left-handed power bat available at the trade deadline. The downside for fantasy owners is that wherever he goes is likely to be a downgrade in hitting environment. Bruce has had the luxury of playing his home games at the Great American Small Park, which ranks fifth in the league for home runs this season and is almost always in that top five.
Nathan Grimm: The Brewers have done good work beginning their rebuild, and that should continue at this year’s trade deadline. Jonathan Lucroy is probably their best and most obvious trade chip, but rumors have begun swirling around 32-year-old corner outfielder Ryan Braun. Miller Park is friendly to hitters, so it’s hard to see him moving to a better situation, even if he upgrades his surrounding cast. If it’s the Giants, as many have suggested, that’s a tough trade for his fantasy value, but it’s not as though people are going to bench or trade a guy like Braun just because his home environment gets tougher. If he is dealt, the Brewers will likely just plug in a stopgap like Kirk Nieuwenhuis or give Keon Broxton some more run for the rest of the year and hope someone like Brett Phillips is ready sooner than later.
An interesting case could be Jonathan Villar. The Brewers have no obvious incentive to trade him — he’s not yet even arbitration-eligible, he’s one of the year’s breakout stars, and he has enough position versatility that he won’t be homeless when Orlando Arcia finally arrives — but if they’re blown away by an offer they should think about dealing the 25-year-old. Like with Braun, a move from Milwaukee and the top of the Brewers order, where he has the permanent green light to run, could actually be a slightly bad thing for Villar’s numbers. But, like with Braun, he won’t just be cast aside unless he ends up at the bottom of the Indians’ lineup or something. Shortstop is Arcia’s to claim when he’s ready, but he’s always been a more interesting real-life prospect than a fantasy one. There probably isn’t much to get excited about in Villar’s stead if he does indeed get moved this summer.
David Shovein: To riff on Lucroy a bit … The 30-year-old backstop is once again performing as one of the top offensive catchers in the game, slashing .307/.367/.516 with nine home runs and 30 RBI. He’s also very affordable, making only $4 million this season with a $5.25 million team option for 2017. He should be an extremely popular commodity on the trade market and should fetch the Brewers a terrific return. Leaving the friendly confines of Miller Park could be a slight downgrade to his overall fantasy value, as could a move out of the cleanup spot, but he’ll be an elite option at his position regardless of where he ends up.
Ryan Boyer: A’s left-hander Rich Hill is currently sidelined with a strained groin, but assuming he gets over that in the next month, the veteran is virtually assured of being traded at the deadline. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a career arc like Hill’s. Here we have a 36-year-old who was pitching in independent ball last year and who had made just 16 starts in the minors in five years before last September. The guy was a left-handed relief specialist, and an inconsistent one at that. Hill has gone on to post a 2.03 ERA and 110/29 K/BB ratio over 93 innings in 15 starts at the big league level since then. He’s about as big of a risk as I can think of to break down, but some team will trade for Hill in the hope that he can manage to keep up this incredible run down the stretch in 2016. Unfortunately, I don’t see his fantasy value trending in the right direction because in addition to having big injury and workload risks, Hill would be moving out of one of the very best home parks for pitchers — Oakland Coliseum.
Speaking of players who are likely to see their fantasy value drop soon, I think Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is finally traded next month. CarGo has been a beast with the bat for the last year and a half, hitting .279/.331/.539 with 54 home runs over his last 863 plate appearances. Perhaps even more importantly, he’s managed to stay relatively healthy after years of nagging injuries. He’s making $17 million this season and $20 million next year, which doesn’t seem like much for a 30-year-old who is still a major threat with the bat. Someone will be willing to deal a nice prospect or two for him next month. I think Gonzalez will probably still wind up hitting no matter where he’s at, but we can’t ignore that his career line has been greatly propped up by a .330/.390/.624 slash at Coors Field. The Rockies might wind up just mixing and matching in the outfield to replace CarGo, but it’s possible it will help clear a quicker path to the majors for David Dahl. Dahl has one of the more intriguing power/speed combos of any prospect, and that intrigue is obviously only heightened when he’s playing half his games in the thin air at Coors. The 22-year-old is sporting a .271/.353/.507 batting line with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases for Double-A Hartford this season and could push for a second-half promotion.
Jesse Pantuosco: I could definitely see the Yankees breaking up their big bullpen trio of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances. I know those guys have been awesome, but do they really need three of them? I guess it will depend on how the Yankees fare between now and late July. They’re only five-and-a-half games behind in the American League East, but I think the talent gap between the Yankees and the three teams ahead of them in that division is substantial.
If the Yankees are only going to trade one, it’s probably Chapman because he’s in the last year of his deal. Betances likely isn’t going anywhere. You need guys like Chapman and Miller in the postseason and that’s exactly where the Cubs and Nationals are both headed. The bullpen isn’t a glaring need for either team but the Nats and Cubs have the prospects to spare and the Yankees need to think about getting younger by planting a few seeds in their farm system. Chapman (or Miller) on a juggernaut team would be scary. If they’re both moved, Betances immediately becomes a top-tier fantasy closer.
Drew Silva: It’s smart to monitor the bullpens of non-contenders and rebuilding teams because those clubs like to shed late-inning relievers for prospects when they can pull it off. I’m not sure the Brewers are going to move Jeremy Jeffress as he is under team control through 2019, but maybe they will try to capitalize on his very good debut season at closer. He’s currently sitting on 18 saves — tied for third in the majors — along with a 2.67 ERA. Will Smith would be the obvious internal fill-in, though he’s on the same free agency timeline as Jeffress. Tyler Thornburg (2.70 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 38/7 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 innings) could benefit greatly if both Jeffress and Smith are moved. Or maybe Milwaukee will just go ahead and keep that bullpen intact. Again, this is a way-too-early trade deadline preview. How about Phillies closer Jeanmar Gomez? He’s only under contract through 2017 and the Phils might be ready to put a brighter spotlight on Hector Neris, who has registered a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts across 33 2/3 innings this season. I’d also be watching what happens in Arizona, Anaheim, Atlanta, San Diego, Cincinnati, Colorado, and maybe even Pittsburgh. Mark Melancon is a free-agent-to-be and the Pirates have done severe damage to their Wild Card chances over the last few weeks.
You can follow these @Rotoworld_BB writers on Twitter: @drewsilv, @djshort, @RyanPBoyer, @JessePantuosco, @Nate_Grimm, @DaveShovein.
