Three Things to Watch For: Cleveland vs. Golden State Game 5
The Golden State Warriors remain in firm control of the 2016 NBA Finals, but their ability to clinch back-to-back championships in Game 5 looked a whole lot better Saturday than it does now. Sunday’s news that star forward Draymond Green has been suspended for Monday’s tilt following the league’s assessment of a flagrant-1 foul for “unnecessary contact with a retaliatory swipe of his hand to the groin” of LeBron James late in Game 4 dramatically changes the matchup between these two teams and gives the Cavaliers a much better chance to keep their season alive for at least one more game.
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There is plenty of room for argument over the suspension, the merits of suspensions based on technical and flagrant foul accumulation, and the same tired questions regarding league-wide toughness that have caused so many retired NBA greats to claim that this era does not measure up to their own. Yet the immediate impact is clear — the Warriors are going to miss Green on Monday. He’s been their most consistently impactful player through the series’ first four games and looked like the Finals MVP favorite prior to his suspension.
That’s not to say that Golden State should be an underdog in Game 5 without him. The Warriors have proven their depth throughout the postseason through several injuries to Stephen Curry and the occasional downturns in form that sink lesser squads. The absence of Green will be perhaps their greatest challenge yet. It should also define the matchups and events that will come to decide this game and perhaps the 2015-16 NBA Champion.
Here are just three of the biggest stories and trends heading into Game 5:
Life Without Draymond
It is difficult to overstate Draymond Green’s importance to the Golden State Warriors. If Stephen Curry is the team’s best player and biggest reason for their record-setting season, then Green is the fulcrum that has made it impossible to label them as a particularly offensive- or defensive-oriented team. The Warriors’ great strength is that the offense and defense amplify each other in a continual feedback loop, and Green is the player who does the most to keep both working. He defends every position well, facilitates the offense in a variety of ways, and pushes the ball in transition to force tempo. More specifically, his ability to defend centers and quasi-centers is the key factor in the small lineups that have especially confounded the Cavs for more than a calendar year.
Green’s absence will be felt most distinctly on defense. His versatility allows for the near-seamless switching that makes the Warriors so difficult to score against, and even a minor dip in Game 5 could allow openings for talented scorers like LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. From an individual perspective, Green has stifled Kevin Love so thoroughly as to amplify the Cavs’ defensive shortcomings and make him a target of heavy criticism for the Cavs’ failure to stay close for most of this series. Potential replacement defenders figure to be able to defend Love either on the perimeter or in the post effectively, but not in both areas. If Love is going to do anything to salvage his reputation in the finals, it’s probably going to happen on Monday.
More generally, losing such a versatile player leaves the Warriors with far fewer options in terms of how they can play. Going small without a traditional center now requires relying on little-used forward James Michael McAdoo (who confused activity for achievement in his seven Game 4 minutes), veteran Marreese Speights (who is only valuable if he makes shots), or playing perimeter players only and sacrificing far too many rebounds. The Warriors can be an excellent team while playing a traditional center such as starter Andrew Bogut or backup Festus Ezeli, but that slows the game down and allows the Cavs to thrive with their own small lineups as they did in the Game 3 win.
To put it another way, the tactical advantages that have galvanized many of the Warriors’ best performances against the Cavaliers begin to disappear with Green out of the arena. LeBron James doesn’t have to face such disruptive defensive switches and can cover Curry or Klay Thompson for stretches without leaving such a talented offensive player, Love gets more room to operate offensively and can be hidden defensively more easily, Kyrie Irving can drive past slower help defenders on his way to the basket, etc. Everything just becomes easier for Cleveland.
That’s not to say that the Warriors have no options. Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala are roughly as tall as Green, adept as offensive facilitators, and can reasonably mimic his work as a screen outlet at the top of the key. Brandon Rush has been a non-factor in this series, but he started for the Warriors when Harrison Barnes was out with injury early this season and could allow Kerr to start the game with four shooters on the floor without forcing Iguodala out of his now-comfortable role as sixth man. No one of these players can do everything Green does, but that’s why he’s the most versatile non-LeBron player in the NBA right now.
Then again, none of these changes may matter much if the Warriors do what they’re known for — making all manner of long-range shots. Green was rendered far less effective than usual in the Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the series-winning adjustment from a 3-1 deficit ended up being “the Splash Brothers make an ungodly amount of three-pointers.” The answer to Green’s absence could very well be great games from Curry and Thompson, 25 points from Harrison Barnes, or some other unexpected contribution. The best way to get away with losing a great player is usually to have other great players.
Cleveland’s Fatigue
While Cleveland’s chances of winning on the road and extending the season certainly improve with Green absent, the task will require much more than showing up. If the evidence of Game 4 proves accurate, then the greatest challenge for the Cavs will be to maintain a high level of effort against an elite team for four quarters. As our Dan Devine wrote on Friday night, the Cavaliers crashed in the final period after a sustained period of intense play in their second game in three nights. They looked gassed, unable to move the ball or more than one player a time on offensive possessions and slow to rotate any time the Warriors engaged in one their trademark multi-player passing moves.
Staying spry for 48 minutes should be easier in Game 5. For one thing, the Cavs will have had one more day off than they did before Games 3 and 4, which can’t hurt. More importantly, the absence of Green makes every minute spent keeping up with the Warriors easier. That massive change should allow Cleveland to stay fresh deeper into the game no matter how successful Golden State is without him.
However, the fatigue that accumulated through those first four games won’t go away just because the Cavs have an easier matchup for one night. Exploiting this suspension will require moving the ball and defending man-for-man in a way they’ve only really been able to do in Game 3 and parts of Game 4. Unlike the Warriors, the Cavaliers cannot fall back on established systems and team-wide understandings when in trouble. For Cleveland, moving the ball and playing together defensively often seems to use more energy than whatever it takes to defeat the opponent. Golden State won’t stop playing with that mutual understanding without Green — they’ll just do it less effectively.
With Green out, it will be tempting for the Cavaliers to attempt to exploit their new individual matchup advantages. But that approach could lead to the same one-on-one play that has proven insufficient to beat an opponent that has already done quite well this postseason with an injured MVP. Cleveland can’t just stay fresh for the fourth quarter — they have to play like an active five-man unit before that point, as well.
What’s Their Motivation?
Any game that could potentially be the last of the NBA season should see both teams play with a sense of desperation. Still, this one now features several other factors that should influence the level of intensity on both sides.
The Cavaliers have been the observably lesser team in all but one game of this series and were given little chance to progress beyond Monday before the news of Green’s suspension hit. They remain severe underdogs to win three in a row no matter what happens in Game 5, but they can save face even if they lose the series. For that matter, they were just handed a one-night gift that most teams down 3-1 can only dream of. Any team with a sense of pride should seize the opportunity.
The Warriors’ situation is more complicated and more interesting. Winning a second-straight title after arguments from naysayers that the first one was too easy, a record-breaking 73-win regular season, and a playoff run that has included two injuries to the league’s first unanimous MVP and a comeback from a 3-1 deficit is a story enough in itself. The suspension of Green and the burgeoning bad blood between the Warriors and Cavs adds even more intrigue to the situation. Closing out a title at home without the aid of one of the best players in the league would send a clear statement that Golden State deserves to be known as one of the best teams of all time.
We won’t know which set wins out until the teams play, so there’s no real use in guessing. Cleveland would appear to face the more severe immediate stakes given that Golden State has three games to win one and will have a hell of an excuse if they lose Game 5. But the Warriors have proven able to meet the historical moment throughout this incredible season, and this game would certainly serve as a legacy-cementing victory.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
