2016 NBA free agents: Count on Kevin Durant going to Miami Heat – MyPalmBeachPost
While the wide-ranging belief in NBA circles seems to be that Kevin Durant will stick around in Oklahoma City and the possibility of him heading to the Heat is an extreme long shot, Pat Riley isn’t working under that assumption.
He rejected that talk six years ago when he acquired LeBron James and Chris Bosh and is doing so again this summer as he pursues what he has referred to as “a whale.”
One player in this free-agent class fits that description, and it’s Durant.
Since the day James called to say he was leaving in July 2014, the organization has been planning to take a monumental move in the summer of ’16 and/or ’17. Riley has been plotting for two years — no signing or trade was made without making sure it wouldn’t hurt “Operation Whale” — and hopes to get a chance to pitch Durant when free agency opens July 1.
If that meeting materializes, how will Riley pitch the Heat as the place to be for Durant?
1. They can make him better.
The Heat, starting with coach Erik Spoelstra, elevated James to several of the best seasons of his career, and they can do it with Durant. Certainly it helped that Miami had James from age 26 to 29, but the staff deserves some credit for James’ stellar production. The same case can be made regarding Bosh.
The best defensive rating James ever posted was in 2011-12, and his four seasons with the Heat are among his top five when it comes to true shooting percentage, an advanced analytic that accounts for 3-pointers, 2-point field goals and free throws. Spoelstra steered him to play in the post more, and that strategy peaked in the final season when he averaged 27.1 points on a career-high 56.7 percent shooting.
While many executives will be selling Durant on how much better he’ll make their team, the Heat can start with how much better they’ll make him.
2. He can trust Pat Riley.
Players and coaches come and go, but the best teams have stability at the top. Few teams in the league can offer the respect and trust Riley has earned. Not only does he possess the ambition to chase championships, he’s been quite successful doing it. At the moment, only the Spurs stack up to Miami’s reputation. Golden State is getting there.
Most of the attention Riley gets is for landing big prizes like Shaquille O’Neal and James, but he’s a mastermind at roster building. He surrounded the Big Three with strong role players like Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Chris Andersen and Mike Miller. Even without an obvious contender on his hands, he persuaded Amar’e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson to sign cheaply this season.
It’s impossible to project who Riley might pick up to put around Durant, but there’s extensive track record that indicates they’ll be pretty good.
3. They have complementary pieces.
Miami’s roster is ready-made for Durant, even with Bosh’s uncertain future. If the Heat can re-sign Hassan Whiteside, they’ll have top-line players at center, point guard and shooting guard going into next season. With the offensive boost from Durant, they can afford to have defensive-minded Justise Winslow at small or power forward.
Dwyane Wade should have at least one more season in which he’s capable of carrying the scoring load, and Goran Dragic’s predisposition to play fast should appeal to Durant. Whiteside should be compatible, too, given that Durant took 69 percent of his shots from 10 feet or deeper last season.
Durant and any four humans would make a nice starting lineup, but Miami’s argument will be that it already has a strong and suitable core for him to join. If Bosh is able to make it back, it’s a bonus.
4. Their young talent is an asset.
If Riley’s grand dream of landing Durant, keeping Whiteside and satisfying Wade comes true, the Heat will be extremely short on salary-cap space to fill out the secondary tier of their roster. The only ways they can get relief in the near future are if Bosh retires or Josh McRoberts turns down his $6 million player option after next season.
However, Riley will have pieces he can move if necessary. Winslow and Josh Richardson are coming off highly encouraging rookie seasons, and Riley could parlay them into players that fit better. Then again, there’s reason to believe both of them will continue developing into players the team would never want to trade. The Heat also have three first-round picks in the next four drafts.
5. He’ll make more money here than some places.
Durant is unbelievably wealthy and will make a staggering amount of money no matter where he spends the rest of his career. However, Miami is one of five teams that plays in a state with no state income tax.
Durant’s most lucrative path is signing a one-year deal with Oklahoma City, then staying there on a five-year max contract next summer, but the Heat, Magic or one of the Texas teams can make up some of the difference because of state tax. That benefit also applies to his endorsement deals, including that reported $300 million Nike contract. If he went to the Warriors, for example, California has a 13.3 percent state tax.
