3-Point Stance: Will fantasy numbers be big for Texans?
Uncertainty surrounding $72 million signee Brock Osweiler has many fantasy owners uneasy about the QB’s impact on brand names DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza discuss Houston’s fantasy relevant players over a few dozen Lone Stars. YEEEEHAAAAWWWW!!!
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Miller inked a rather lucrative four-year, $26 million deal ($14 million guaranteed) in March, a rarified contract in this day and age of RB devaluation. Because the vet has limited competition for touches, many believe this will be the year he finally reaches peak potential. At his current 15.8 ADP (RB6), is the rusher OVERVALUED, UNDEVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED? Also, what are you statistical projections?
Liz – PROPERLY VALUED. As discussed on Wednesday’s edition of the Fantasy Freak Show Podcast, Miller is ranked sixth among RBs in Yahoo’s expert consensus rankings, as well as my own. He was fantasy’s sixth best overall player at the position last season, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per week in back-to-back campaigns.
Moving to an offense with a better run blocking unit (ranked ten spots higher than Miami’s was the previous year, according to Football Outsiders) and one that called the eighth most passing plays in 2015 (without Arian Foster!) and the first most in 2014, Miller’s volume should see an uptick. A tantalizing combination of speed and agility in tandem with an undeniable nose for the end zone have aided in Miller’s ability to produce top-ten numbers despite averaging thirteen totes and two catches per game over the last two years in South Beach. Assuming he stays healthy in Houston and taking into consideration a small adjustment period, I see him racking up 300 total touches for 1,450 combined yards and 10 TDs.
Brad – Slightly UNDERVALUED. All the ingredients are in place for Miller to cook up a buffet of fantasy goodness. He’s the unrivaled starter who is sure to see a sizable increase in snap share (’15: 61.6) and overall touches (’15: 15.1/game). He’s essentially a fresher, younger Arian Foster, a rare 300-touch commodity.
On what should be 18-22 touches per game, Miller could max out in the 1800-1900 combined yards, 11-14 TD range. He’s a multidimensional slasher equipped with deceptive power (No. 7 in YAC last year), elusiveness (No. 14 in evaded tackles), open-field wheels and reliable mitts (82.5 catch%). Behind a respectable run-blocking line, he should flourish. He’ll prove more valuable than Adrian Peterson. Blasephemy? I think not.
When it comes to his fashion sense, affinity for furry ‘manbag’ accessories or contributions on the field, Hopkins is truly a one-of-a-kind talent. After Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and Julio Jones, most ‘experts’ have him ranked as the next best WR. With a relatively green QB at the helm, OVER/UNDER 99.5 receptions this season.
Liz – OVER. Last year the stud receiver dragged “Hoyer the Destroyer” along, hauling in 111 catches. Even assuming Miller absorbs 45-50 balls, the tertiary weapons in Houston’s passing game aren’t potent enough to threaten Nuk’s volume. In fact, back in 2014, with a more run focused approach and a relatively healthy Arian Foster, Andre Johnson managed 85 receptions (to Hopkins’ 76). The Clemson product should have no problem besting the vet’s previous total by 15 catches this fall.
Brad – UNDER. Without question, Hopkins is a mega-elite talent with ridiculous dexterity, adjustment/ball-tracking skills and hands. His 59 catch percentage last year was unsightly, but the undynamic duo of Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett were clearly to blame. As noted by his contested catch rate (61%), 15 red-zone receptions and massive targets share (31.3%) he’s a clear-cut WR1 option.
However, I’m expecting him to fall just shy of the century mark in catches. With Miller in tow, the Texans have a legitimate ground game, which was virtually nonexistent last year. His presence combined with Osweiler’s uncertainties arrow to a campaign between 2014 (76-1210-6) and 2015 (111-1348-11).
When Texans training camp opens in late July, Cecil Shorts, Jaelen Strong, Keith Mumphery and rookie speedster Will Fuller will compete for the WR2 gig. Among the group, who will offer the most fantasy worth come year’s end?
Liz – STRONG. With 32-year-old Nate Washington now in New England, and Cecil Shorts missing upwards of five weeks due to a myriad of injuries last year, Strong has an opportunity to step into a larger role opposite Hopkins. Of course, I’d like his chances more had Houston not drafted Fuller and Braxton Miller, but I believe Fuller to be a one-dimensional speed guy and Miller a developmental product. Strong needs to stay out of legal trouble and work hard in camp, but if he can stay focused his leaping ability and physicality could earn him enough looks to close out 2016 with a 50-700-6 stat line.
Brad – To be clear, I’m rather unconfident anyone from this mish-mash will crack starting fantasy lineups routinely, even in 14-team leagues. However, FULLER possesses the most upside. He’s a one-trick pony akin to a Ted Ginn or DeSean Jackson, but with double-coverages draping Hopkins, he will have ample opportunities to pop tops deep downfield. When it comes to his wiry frame, the dude should always order extra cheese, but his blazing 4.32 40-yard wheels gives him the advantage over Strong/Shorts/Mumphery. Think final first-year numbers around 45-725-4.
Harass Brad on Twitter @YahooNoise.
