MLB Draft's Most Valuable Picks

MLB Draft's Most Valuable Picks – Sports On Earth

Here’s the dirty truth about many of the great Draft day steals in MLB history: They didn’t prove their greatness with the clubs that drafted them.

Usually, no list of savvy picks is complete without mention of Nolan Ryan (12th round, 1965), Ryne Sandberg (20th round, 1978) or John Smoltz (22nd round, 1985), Hall of Famers all. But any acclaim due to the clubs that first recognized those talents is offset by the short-sighted decisions those same clubs made to trade them.

So with the 2016 Draft set to begin at 6 p.m. ET on Thursday on MLB Network and MLB.com, let’s talk about some great Draft decisions that actually benefited the teams that made the decision.

What follows are my choices for the top 10 MVPs — that’s Most Valuable Picks — in the history of the June amateur draft.

I’m defining value as performance relative to the placement of the pick. Because the goal here is to find guys who significantly outperformed their Draft position, you won’t find any first-rounders on this list (no, not even a late-first-round luminary such as Mike Trout). I’ve devised this list with the admittedly rudimentary formula of taking a player’s draft round and multiplying it by the Baseball Reference-calculated WAR he compiled in his initial run with his initial club. In part because of a major rule change that I’ll discuss in a minute, no players drafted this century cracked the list. Ian Kinsler did come close, as a result of his eight-year run with the Rangers, and former ninth-rounder Paul Goldschmidt is among those who could one day qualify.

For now, these are the names and numbers to beat, along with the stories of how they came about.

10. Andy Pettitte, Yankees, 1990
Round/pick: 22nd round/No. 594 overall
WAR: 35.0
Score: 770

One reason you won’t find as many late-round bargains as you once did is the 2007 elimination of the draft-and-follow, in which clubs could take a player and watch him develop essentially another calendar year before signing him. Several guys on this list were draft-and-follows, Pettitte included.

The Yankees took the pudgy left-hander, who had been the center for his prep football team, Deer Park (Texas) High School, but he opted not to go pro and instead attend San Jacinto Junior College. Over the course of the next year, Pettitte dropped pounds and gained velocity. The following May, the Yankees were mere hours away from losing the rights to Pettitte, who almost certainly would have been a first-rounder in the following month’s draft, but he signed for a mere $80,000. Pettitte later called it “the dumbest thing I’ve ever done.” At least, from a financial perspective.

But things had a way of working out for both parties. Pettitte would be a key contributor to four World Series teams in his first stint with the Yanks, then came back later in his career to win another and cement his spot in Monument Park.

9. Bret Saberhagen, Royals, 1982
Round/pick: 19/480
WAR: 40.8
Score: 775.2

In his junior year at Grover Cleveland High in Reseda, Calif., Saberhagen was widely considered a high-round pick waiting to happen. But then he injured his shoulder before his senior year and lost his fluid delivery. Fortunately for the Royals, scout Guy Hansen happened to be in the stands one day when Saberhagen suddenly showed a little more life in his fastball, and he encouraged the club to take a late-round flier on him.

Three years later, Saberhagen was winning the first of his two Cy Young awards and guiding the Royals to the World Series crown.

8. Don Mattingly, Yankees, 1979
Round/pick: 19/493
WAR: 42.2
Score: 801.8

The legend George Steinbrenner used to tell goes something like this: The Boss was on a flight, leafing through Sports Illustrated. In the “Faces in the Crowd” section was a photo of young Mattingly, an 18-year-old from Evansville, Ind. Steinbrenner showed it to the flight attendant, who had told him she was from Indiana, and she actually recognized the name. Intrigued, Steinbrenner had scout Jax Robertson follow up, and the report that came back was glowing. Shortly thereafter, the Yankees took Mattingly at No. 493 overall, and he became a star.

That would be a really cool story if it was true.

In reality, the “Faces in the Crowd” feature with Mattingly’s name and image ran several weeks after the draft. So this was merely a matter of good scouting of an overlooked kid from the Midwest. No shame in that.

7. Jorge Posada, Yankees, 1990
Round/pick: 24/646
WAR: 42.7
Score: 1,024.8

What does it say about the Yankees’ 1990 Draft that it landed them two players on this particular list? Posada went two rounds after Pettitte and stayed with the Yankees his entire career, landing him extra special bonus points in this little exercise.

Like Pettitte, Posada was a draft-and-follow. The Yanks had actually drafted him a year earlier, in the 43rd round, but he opted to go back to Calhoun Community College (because who wouldn’t?). In June 1990, they got him at No. 646 overall, in-between Mike Mimbs of Mercer and Marc Tsitouris of Wingate and enticed him to forgo his commitment to the University of Alabama nearly a year later with $30,000. Initially in his pro career, Posada was an error-prone second baseman, but he converted to catching in the fall Instructional League in ’91 and went on to become one of the famed “Core Four” (and, for the purposes of this list, “Deft Draft Duo”).

6. Mark Grace, Cubs, 1985
Round/pick: 24/622
WAR: 43.9
Score: 1,053.6

Grace was a junior at San Diego State, and, when he was drafted in the 24th round and offered $5,000, he planned to go back to school for his senior year. But his coach, Jim Dietz, suggested that Grace spend his summer with the North Pole Nicks, in the Alaska League, where he could play without endangering his amateur status. Grace made $250 a month painting houses during the day, and he played ball — and raked — at night. The Cubs took notice, and, at the end of the Alaska League season, upped their offer to $20,000. Grace signed the dotted line.

Three years later, he began a big league career that would include three All-Star appearances and four Gold Gloves. Grace went from the North Pole to the North Side.

5. Roy Oswalt, Astros, 1996
Round/pick: 23/684
WAR: 48.8
Score: 1,122.4

Scout James Farrar got a tip about an undersized pitcher at Holmes Community College, drove several hours out of his way into rural Mississippi to watch him pitch, and discovered Oswalt was very much worth the drive.

The Astros took Oswalt in the 23rd round as a draft-and-follow, and that actually had the effect of putting him on the radar of other clubs. Though scouts worried about his slight build and his delivery (at least one pegged him as “scary to watch but scary to hit off also” and figured he’d top out as a reliever even if he stayed healthy), Oswalt pitched so well that second season at Holmes that he was trending toward first-round territory. But the Astros wooed him with half a million bucks. He would finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting in five of his nine and a half seasons in Houston, including his rookie year.

4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals, 1999
Round/pick: 13/402
WAR: 86.4
Score: 1,123.2

Well, nearly 600 home runs, three MVPs, two World Series crowns and $350 million later, surely Pujols can laugh about how 401 guys were taken ahead of him, right?

“It’s a chip on my shoulder that I will have for the rest of my career, until I’m done wearing a uniform,” he recently told MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “I still think about it.”

Oh. All righty then.

Well, it’s not as if Pujols was totally overlooked. His agent at the time, a former lawyer, reportedly concerned some clubs prior to the draft with his financial demands. Still, not even signability concerns can drive a once-in-a-generation talent this far down the draft pecking order.

The truth is that every Major League club, the Cardinals included, didn’t know that a once-in-a-generation talent was lurking within the kid from Maple Woods Community College. The Rays actually had Pujols come to Tropicana Field for a showcase — the only pre-Draft event Pujols was invited to — and still passed. The Cards took a shot on him, and, after Pujols played in the Jayhawk Collegiate League that summer, signed him in August 1999. And in 2001, he began arguably the greatest 10-year run in Major League history.

3. Keith Hernandez, Cardinals, 1971
Round/pick: 42/785
WAR: 34.3
Score: 1,440.6

No, I am not here to suggest that Hernandez was the greatest first baseman the Cardinals ever drafted. I’m not trying to put yet another chip on Pujols’ shoulder. It’s just that the formula bears what it bears. Hernandez went way late and delivered big, earning co-MVP honors in 1979 and helping the Cards to the 1982 World Series title.

Most likely, he would have been a first-rounder in 1971, had he not deserted his high school team senior year after an argument with his coach. That put a bad label on Hernandez, and he wasn’t any more of a coach’s delight when he used cocaine in the early ’80s, prompting a discount trade to the Mets. Actually, the biggest knock on Hernandez might be the social faux paus he made in asking brand-new buddy Jerry Seinfeld to help him move in the early ’90s. But the dude could sure play.

2. Mark Buehrle, White Sox, 1998
Round/pick: 38/1,139
WAR: 49.0
Score: 1,862

This one goes out to John Kazanas, the amateur scout for the Sox who fell in love with two junior college players in Missouri in the spring of 1998 — Buehrle and Pujols. Kazanas turned in a report with a 75 (on a score of 20-80) power grade for Pujols. Alas, the Sox didn’t select him the following year. But they did take the left-hander with middling radar gun readings who had been a third-team All-American at Jefferson Junior College.

Buehrle is yet another guy on this list who was — you guessed it — a draft-and-follow. He never did find much life with that fastball, but his feel for pitching was advanced, and his command of his pitches and sound mechanics allowed him to become one of the game’s great workhorses. Buehrle had 14 straight seasons — 11 with the White Sox — in which he pitched at least 200 innings. He was a compiler and a late pick, allowing him to shoot up near the top of this MVP list.

1. Mike Piazza, Dodgers, 1988
Round/pick: 62/1,380
WAR: 31.9
Score: 1,977.8

A fitting place to find a guy going into the Hall of Fame this summer.

By now, you no doubt know the backstory here. Piazza’s father, Vince, and Tommy Lasorda were childhood friends. With his son roundly ignored by scouts while playing first base for Miami-Dade Community College, Vince asked Lasorda to do him a favor and have the Dodgers take the kid if nobody else did.

Nobody else did. Piazza was selected after more than 1,000 players (none of whom, for the record, are enshrined in Cooperstown) were taken. Lasorda convinced the Dodgers to sign Piazza — for $15,000 — on the premise that his bat would play up better if he was moved to catcher. Five years later, he was the National League Rookie of the Year. Twenty-three years after that, he’ll be making his Hall of Fame speech and, presumably, thanking Lasorda for the opportunity to become arguably the greatest Draft day find of all-time.

Just missed: 11. Ken Griffey Sr., Reds, 1969 (29th round/682nd pick, 25.0 WAR, 725 score); 12. Orel Hershiser, Dodgers, 1979 (17/440, 41.7, 708.9); 13. Jim Thome, Indians, 1989 (13/343, 47.4, 616.2); 14. Ian Kinsler, Rangers, 2003 (17/496, 35.1, 596.7); 15. Orlando Hudson, Blue Jays, 1997 (43/1,280, 12.6, 541.8).

* * *
Anthony Castrovince is a Sports on Earth contributor, MLB.com columnist and MLB Network contributor. Follow him on Twitter @Castrovince.