ACC Atlantic win totals: Can Clemson return to the College Football Playoff? – CBSSports.com
Dabo Swinney will gladly tell you where the Tigers rank among all college football programs in terms of sustained success over the last four years (spoiler: it’s right up there with Ohio State, a team they beat in the Orange Bowl, and Oregon). We’re used to Clemson being good and we’ve officially put “Clemsoning” to bed.
But No. 1? That’s foreign territory for the Tigers. Clemson held the top spot in the polls and College Football Playoff rankings for much of last season, but it was the first time the program was No. 1 since winning the program’s lone national title in 1981. Swinney, his staff and the rest of Tiger nation would like to keep Clemson in the same conversation as Alabama on an annual basis, starting with the follow-up to last year’s runner-up finish.
In looking at the win totals, per Vegas Insider, for the 2016 season, the first takeaway is that no one in the country has a higher win total than Clemson (10.5). The Tigers weren’t even the ACC preseason pick to win the league a year ago, but after that dream run of 2015, bringing their own guts while watching Deshaun Watson ascend to college football stardom, the Tigers are favorites. The Heisman finalist who became the first player in FBS history to throw for 4,000 yards and run for 1,000 is back and a big reason why Las Vegas thinks the Tigers will win between 10-11 games again in 2016.
It’s fair to think Clemson will be back in the playoff when looking at the college football landscape, but an 11-1 record against a schedule that includes road games at Auburn and Florida State? More on that, and the rest of the ACC Atlantic outlook below, all through the lens of win totals picks.
Clemson, 10.5 (Over -110, Under -110): I think there’s some justified doubt in Clemson’s chances to repeat the magic, but I’m not walking away from the table when a shooter’s got the hot hand. One underrated key to Clemson’s success has not only been the Tigers’ success on the recruiting trail but willingness to get those young players in the lineup early. That makes the NFL departures and other attrition less impactful when there’s a former blue chip player ready to make his name the next one on a scout’s sheet. Only a handful of teams played more true and redshirt freshmen last season in all of college football, and I think that young group helped forge the program’s identity, giving it some protection against the massive expectations of this fall. Pick: Over
Florida State 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120): I think Dalvin Cook has an opportunity to prove himself as the best running back in college football and take Florida State right to the edge of playoff contention, but it will all start with that first game against Ole Miss on Labor Day. Nagged by injuries, Cook still ran for 1,691 yards at 7.38 yards per carry and had more carries of 15 yards or more than any back in the country. No one’s sure who will start at quarterback yet, but I also don’t get the sense that many around Tallahassee are really worried about that. If the offenisve line — anchored by the best blocker in the ACC in Roderick Johnson at left tackle — takes a step forward as a unit and Travis Rudolph continues his development after emerging as a game-changer a year ago, I think 10-2 or 11-1 sounds about right. Pick: Over
Louisville 9 (Over +110, Under -130): I’ve really come around on Louisville as one of the top defensive teams in the conference for 2016, led by Devonte Fields and Keith Kelsey at linebacker and run-stuffer DeAngelo Brown up front as the anchors. The buzz for the Cards as a potential Atlantic Division dark horse comes from pairing that side of the ball with the raw potential seen in quarterback Lamar Jackson. The sophomore has strength, escape ability and a year of experience under his belt now. If he can play well enough to keep his hands on the starting job, then there’s reason to believe some of those close losses from a year ago could be wins in 2016.
Jackson could be the truth, but there wasn’t quite enough yet for me to feel comfortable with that bet. Pick: Under
Boston College 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110): There are certain experiences in life that will dramatically adjust your perception. I had a bad experience with olives once, frustrated that the pungent flavor was overtaking everything they touched. After staying away from olives for more than a decade, I now take pity on the pitted. I can’t get enough of them, requesting olives anytime they are available. It’s crazy looking back now and realizing how much I was missing out on, but that first experience was awful.
Watching Boston College’s offense last year was that bad, and it’s keeping me from betting on the Eagles — a program that has a proven ability to exceed expectations under Steve Addazio — to win seven games. Expert defensive coordinator Don Brown is now at Michigan with Jim Harbaugh and the current answers for the offensive woes are former Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler and former Kentucky quarterback Patrick Towles to push Darius Wade for the starting quarterback job. I think Jon Hilliman is good and should have plenty of opportunities to be productive this year, but I don’t think that’s enough to convince me a fast bounce-back is coming in 2016. Pick: Under
NC State, 6 (Over -110, Under -110): There’s a lot of interesting uncertainty around NC State right now, particularly on offense. Can Eliah Drinkwitz jump-start the offense with either Jalan McClendon or Jakobi Meyers? Jaylen Samuels is a phenomenal talent, but how will he fit into the new offense? NC State has done a good job of collecting talent and should have a bowl team brewing in Raleigh, but there are way too many question marks to think the Wolfpack are on the verge of winning more than half of their conference games in 2016. It’s a team that can rise up and beat a Louisville, Notre Dame or North Carolina, for sure, but six wins seem right over the course of the year.
Even in years where NC State notches the big upset, it’s frequently paired with another game (like Virginia Tech last year) that results in an inexplicable loss. The conference schedule is too tough to think this is a dark horse year for the Wolfpack. Bowl team? Definitely. Division title contender? I’m not betting on it. Pick: Push
Wake Forest, 5.5 (Over +110, Under -130): Dave Clawson is often promoted as a coach skilled at building programs up, with year-to-year improvement from his time at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green. That kind of reputation readied Wake Forest fans for some tough times during the first two years, and the good news is the previous stops included noticeable steps forward in years three and four (SB Nation’s Bill Connelly highlighted this well recently).
The Demon Deacons are close to bowl contention, but I don’t think there’s enough separation from Boston College (though last year’s 3-0 masterpiece suggests they have the Eagles’ number), Virginia and Syracuse — coached by Clawson’s successor at Bowling Green — to feel confident in those games breaking Wake’s way. The first step to a postseason bid is continued improvement up front on offense and creating time for Jon Wolford and Kendall Hinton after allowing 88 sacks over the last two seasons. Pick: Under
Syracuse, 4 (Over -110, Under -110): I think I’m too bullish on Dino Babers. Maybe I’m a sucker for the MAC (probably). Spending a November weeknight watching Bowling Green outscore college basketball teams (then getting their season started and playing at the same time) was a joy and maybe something about the Orange jerseys has me ignoring their warning signs. Mainly, the fact that Syracuse might only be favored in a few games this year (vs. Colgate, at UConn, maybe?) against a brutal schedule for year one with Babers. They’ll upset at least one team, for sure, but I’m guessing a five-win finish. Pick: Over