2016 Fantasy Football: Kansas City Chiefs Team Outlook – Scout
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite losing Jamaal Charles for almost three-fourths of the 2015 season, the Chiefs had growth in their offense plus one of the best defenses in the league. This combination led to an 11-5 record and their second playoff berth in the three years under head coach Andy Reid. Over 17 seasons in the NFL as a head coach, Reid has a 161-110-1 record with one Super Bowl appearance. With the Chiefs, Andy has 31 wins in 48 chances with one win in the playoffs. Their defense allowed 287 points, which was the third-lowest total in the NFL. Kansas City allowed the 7th lowest amount of yards. Bob Sutton returns for his fourth year as the defensive coordinator. He has 16 seasons of experience as a NFL coach with six coming as a defensive coordinator. In each of the last five years, the Chiefs finished worse than 20th in the league in yards gained offensively. They ranked much higher in points allowed (9th) thanks to the scoring success of their defense (five defensive TDs). This season Kansas City will use Matt Nagy and Brad Childress as co-offensive coordinators. Last year Childress worked as the spread game analyst for the Chiefs. He has five seasons of head coaching experience in the NFL (39-35) plus another four years as offensive coordinator. This is a step up in job for Nagy, who spent the last three seasons of the quarterbacks coach for Kansas City.
Free Agency
The Chiefs lost three players from their offensive line in the offseason – Jeff Allen, Donald Stephenson, and Ben Grubbs. Allen will be missed as he played at a high level as a starter in 2015. Stephenson was a huge liability in all areas while playing about 70 percent of the offensive snaps. Grubbs was cut after a below par season as a part-time player.
Top CB Sean Smith signed with the Raiders, and he will be tough to replace in the starting lineup. S Tyvon Branch moved onto the Cardinals after grading as league average starter for his position. DE Mike DeVito retired.
T Mitchell Schwartz was brought in to start on the offensive line. He’s expected to be a winning addition after posting a strong season in all areas with the Browns in 2015.
The only other additions were all players with minimal playing time in 2015 – DE Efe Obade, LB Andy Mulumba, and WR Rod Streater.
Draft
Kansas City didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. They invested in DT Chris Jones with the sixth pick in the second round. He offers strength and quickness at the point of contact while lacking a finishing motor and the ability to counter when stymied after the snap.
In the 3rd, the Chiefs tried to upgrade their secondary by adding CB KeiVarae Russell. He has limited playing time over the last two years at Notre Dame due a broken leg and an academic issue. Some scouts believe his future will be at safety in the NFL. Russell has a chance to be an asset in coverage where his quickness and his speed should play well. He needs to improve his technique in his transition in his back pedal.
Kansas City had three picks in the fourth round – G Parker Ehinger, CB Eric Murray, and WR Demarcus Robinson. Ehinger looks to be a tweener on the offensive line. He lacks the desired quickness to be an asset in pass protection in the NFL at tackle, while his strength in below winning value at this point of his career as an interior lineman. His best asset will come in pass protection with questionable upside as run blocker no matter where in lines up on the offensive line. Murray is a bit of a chaser in pass coverage with some value in press coverage. His skill set does lose some value when asked to change direction and he will have a tough time if asked to cover elite physical WRs. Robinson has a checkered past leading to multiple suspensions. His game has upside in all areas if he ever committed to improving his technique. His hands tend to be a weakness.
QB Kevin Hogan was added in the fifth round. He has plus speed and quickness for his position while showcasing athletic ability at Stanford. His delivery needs to be revamped, and that is a strength of head coach Andy Reid. Hogan’s arm grades below average with questionable accuracy downfield due to his mechanics. Kevin played in a pro system in college, but he needs to improve his ability to read defenses. Hogan is a project with game manager upside.
With their second pick in the fifth round, the Chiefs drafted WR Tyreek Hill. Hill is one-dimensional speed player with possible upside as a return man. His lack of size (5’10” and 185 lbs.) and toughness kills any value when asked to attack the middle of the field. Tyreek is a former track star with one black eye due to a domestic injury at Oklahoma State.
With their two picks in the sixth round, Kansas City focused on their defense with CB D.J. White and LB Dadi Nicolas. White follows a similar theme for the Chiefs when looking for a CB in this season draft. D.J. should play well in press coverage with enough speed to have value when in chase mode. He has some playmaking ability while also falling short in coverage when asked to change direction. He lacks a second gear if he gets beat early. Nicolas falls short in strength and size (6’3” and 235 lbs.) to play close to the line of scrimmage. Also, Dadi doesn’t offer an edge in speed (4.76 forty yard dash at his Pro Day). His quickness offers upside as a pass rusher even with his miscast skill set.
Offensive Line
Kansas City finished 6th in the NFL in rushing yards (2044) with 19 rushing TDs and a league-high 20 rushes of 20 yards or more. Ball carriers averaged 4.7 yards per rush (3rd in the NFL) while averaging 27.2 rushes per game. The Chiefs had 36 rushes for a loss and 53 runs of 10 yards or more.
They ranked 30th in the league in passing yards (3255) with 20 passing TDs and seven Ints. Kansas City allowed 46 sacks and 78 QB hits. Their sack rate (9.7) was the 4th highest in the league.
It’s pretty interesting to see the below average ranking at each position on the offensive line despite a high level of success rushing the ball. RT Mitchell Schwartz should be a nice addition in run blocking and pass protection. LT Eric Fisher remains a below league average player despite being the first overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. His game has yet to offer upside in either run or pass blocking.
C Mitch Morse was drafted in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Morse has plus strength with some quickness and a solid feel for the game. He’ll offer upside in both run and pass blocking with more experience. Mitch was league average as a run blocker last year with risk in pass protection. He should be improved in his second year in the league.
The Chiefs biggest weakness on the offensive line will come at both guard position. Each returning option has failure risk in all areas in 2015.
Overall, this line has below average talent. Their talent at RB masks some of their risk in run blocking. Kansas City needs a huge step forward for Eric Fisher plus better success protecting the quarterback.
Offensive Schedule
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing TDs touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing TDs (TDS).
This information is based on 2015, which will work as our starting point for 2016. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2014 Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2014.
2014 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2015 Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2014.
2015 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2016 Adjustment is based on the 2015 league average and the 2015 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat and the basis for strength of schedule.
Kansas City has five tough matchups for their rushing offense (NYJ, PIT, CAR, and DEN X 2) with six other games that grade as below the league average (HOU, TB, JAX, ATL, and OAK x 2). Their best success running the ball should come against NO, SD X 2, and IND).
Their pass schedule has six favorable games (PIT, NO, JAX, OAK X 2, and IND). They have three matchups with against teams with strong pass defenses (DEN X 2 and HOU).
Offense
The Chiefs ran the ball 46.5 percent of the times with almost a 50/50 split in rushing and passing TDs (19:20). This offense should produce upside to the running back position.
Quarterback
http://www.scout.com/player/32018-alex-smith?s=532
Alex Smith (QB) – Over the last five seasons with San Francisco and Kansas City, Smith has a 49-21-1 record as he’s developed into a winning game manager. His legs have become more relevant in the Chiefs’ offense (209/1183/4) while averaging 5.7 yards per rush. He threw for a career-high 3486 yards last year while matching his success in 2014 in his completion rate (65.3). His most impressive stat is his few interceptions (30) over the last five years (2105 pass attempts – 1.4 percent Int rate). His yards per pass attempts are trending upward (2013 – 6.5, 2014 – 7.0, and 2015 – 7.4) leading to competitive yards when his rushing yards are added into the equation. In his ten-year career in the NFL, Alex has yet to deliver a season with at least league average success in TDs. In 2015, he had one 300 yard passing game and three games with three combined TDs. His season ended with five straight games with fewer than 200 yards passing not including a sixth straight game in the first round of the playoffs. In the Fantasy market, Smith is a boring option with occasional value if the game score gets out of line. His upside can only go as far as his receiving corps, which included two players (Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce). At best, Alex has a chance at 4000 combined yards with league average TDs making him a weak QB2.
Editor’s note: SCOUT Fantasy went straight to the source in the SCOUT network whom is closest to the Kansas City Chiefs, Nick Athan (@ChiefsOnScout) from Chiefs Insider.
Scout Fantasy: Considering Alex Smith has never thrown for more than 3,500 yards in a season or connected on more than 23 passing TDs, is there any situation where you can see him being more than a deep-league Fantasy backup or a bye week replacement?
Athan: It’s going to be an interesting season for the Chiefs and in particular how they use Alex Smith. If offseason workouts mean anything, the Chiefs are going to run the ball first and pass second. Part of the reason Head Coach Andy Reid might reverse his stance to pass first and run second is the fact outside of WR Jeremy Maclin; there isn’t another viable option in the receivers group. So as a fantasy pick, Smith might be relegated to back-up because I see the Chiefs going back to a familiar smash mouth approach with Jamaal Charles, Charcandrick West, and Spencer Ware.
Other options: Aaron Murray, Kevin Hogan, Tyler Bray
Running Back
http://www.scout.com/player/51528-jamaal-charles?s=532
Jamaal Charles (RB) – The window for Jamaal Charles to be an impact back is beginning to close. For the second time in his career, Jamaal suffered a major knee injury costing him most of a season. In 2015, Charles was much more active in the passing game over the first four games of the season (20/151/1 on 26 targets), which put him on pace to break his career-high of 70 catches in 2013. Even with a bump in value in the passing game, he finished with only 71 rushes for 364 yards and four TDs. This projected over 16 games would be 227 carries for 1165 yards and 13 TDs. Overall, he was on pace for about 300 touches and 1700+ yards. He tore ACL in his right knee in Mid-October (left knee in 2011), which gives him enough time to be ready for the start of the regular season. Typically, it takes about ten months to return to the field with close to full strength. With age not on his side and the success of Charcandrick West in 2015, Jamaal may not regain the full ride in 2016. He’s averaged 5.5 yards per rush in his career, so it’s tough to write him off. I expect him to have full value in the passing game with some limitation on early downs until he gets back into game shape. In the end, about 250 touches seem reasonable with mid-range TDs and about 1400 yards. This works out to about 250 Fantasy points in PPR leagues or a back-end RB1.
http://www.scout.com/player/132720-charcandrick-west?s=532
Charcandrick West (RB) – After the injury to Charles in Week 5, West emerged as the top option at running back for the Chiefs mid-season. Over three games from Week 7 to Week 9, West had 412 combined yards with four TDs and nine catches while averaging 25 touches per game. As exciting as his success was, Charcandrick failed to deliver follow through over the last six games of the season (292 combined yards with one TD on 79 touches (13.2 touches per game). On the year, he averaged 4.0 yards per rush with declining value in the passing game. His game even had less explosiveness than Spencer Ware. Someone will split time with Charles on first and second down, but I can’t trust that West is a lock to produce a serviceable season. He had enough success to be considered the top handful, but I wouldn’t overpay. A Fantasy owner must keep a close ear to the training camp news for Kansas City.
Spencer Ware (RB) – Over the last seven games of 2015, Ware saw action in six games leading to 66 carries for 379 yards with five TDs and five catches. He missed Week 15 due to a rib issue. On the year, Spencer averaged 5.6 yards per rush with value at the end zone. His resume is short, and he has no upside in the passing game, but his skill set may work well with Charles.
Scout Fantasy: Jamaal Charles is Fantasy royalty, no question, but there is cause for concern another another ACL injury. When you factor in the sometimes-promising production from both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, how will this backfield shake out?
Athan: With the Chiefs entering the final phases of their OTA sessions, Sir Charles looks like he could line up and play football this weekend. After successful knee surgery that included stem cell treatment, he will certainly be ready for the regular season. He’s always been a remarkable athlete and tough as nails, so I expect a big season from Charles. As far as West and Ware, they’ll get plenty of reps as well. The Chiefs had offers to deal both running backs in the offseason but chose to retain both. If I were a betting man, the trio should top the 2500-yard mark this season in rushing.
Knile Davis (RB) – When given a starting opportunity in 2014, Davis has delivered four strong games (442 combined yards with five TDs). His success in those games was created by plus touches (26.5 per game). As exciting as his success in those games may look, Knile is only averaging 3.3 yards per rush in his career. His lack of success led to Knile being passed on the depth chart in 2015 by two players. Last season he only had 30 touches for 96 yards with a TD and two catches. This season he has to be motivated to regain the backup role and it wouldn’t surprise me to hear one of those “best shape of my life” stories in training camp.
Other options: Darrin Reaves
Wide Receiver
http://www.scout.com/player/67938-jeremy-maclin?s=532
Jeremy Maclin (WR) – I shied away from Maclin in 2015 due to concern that Chiefs’ offense wouldn’t produce enough chances for a WR as a result of low passing attempts. His targets (124 in 15 games) were well below the elite WRs in the game, but Jeremy had an elite catch rate (70.2) leading to a career-high in catches (87). Overall, he had his second straight season with 1000+ yards with strength in TDs (8). In his career, Maclin averaged 4.8 catches per game for 65.1 yards and 0.49 TDs per game or about 14.3 Fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. Jeremy had three games with 100+ receiving yards (two with Charles on the field) and six games with double-digit targets. He scored six TDs in the last six games of the regular season as his chemistry with Alex Smith improved with each game played. Maclin missed Week 7 due a concussion while also battling an ankle issue late in the season. His opportunity projects as a WR2 while offering a wide range of results from game to game. I like what I saw from him in this offense in 2015, and I expect continued growth in 2016. His next step should be 90+ catches for 1300+ yards and possible double-digit TDs.
Scout Fantasy: On the Chiefs’ depth chart, Jeremy Maclin is very clearly the No. 1 WR. His 2015 seasons was one of the better seasons in his career. I have a question about the rest of the WR depth chart. Albert Wilson has crazy speed. Chris Conley also has off the charts athleticism. Kansas City also signed Rod Streater away from Oakland. Who emerges here? Can anybody put up Fantasy relevant stats?
Athan: Maclin didn’t disappoint last season, and I expect and even bigger season from him in 2016. Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, and DeAnthony Thomas don’t appear to be ready to tackle the #2 slot behind Maclin. Conley has the best chance, and the addition of Rod Streater could make this a must see training camp battle. To me, Streater could be a sleeper but his success this season will be his ability to assimilate Reid’s complicated offensive playbook. If you’re looking for a diamond in the rough, Tyreek Hill could be that player. If you separate his turbulent life off the field, on the practice field he’s a gifted all-around playmaker as KC has had since Dante Hall. If they line Hill in the slot, he could create quite a fantasy buzz.
http://www.scout.com/player/162995-albert-wilson?s=532
Albert Wilson (WR) – Last season the Chiefs completed 172 passes to the WR position on 252 targets for 1997 yards. This leaves minimal opportunities for the WR in this offense plus Kansas City has yet to find a second WR with upside. Wilson was more involved in the Chiefs’ offense after missing Weeks 4 and 5 due to a shoulder issue. Over the last 11 games of the season, Albert caught 32 of his 50 targets for 426 yards and two TDs. He never had more than six targets in any game. His best success came in Week 14 (4/87/1). This will be his third season in this offense, but his upside is extremely limited as a Fantasy option. With continued growth, Wilson may work his way to 50 catches for 650+ yards and a handful of TDs.
Rod Streater (WR) – After posting a solid season in 2013 (60/888/4 on 99 targets), Streater has struggled to regain his form. He missed most of 2014 with a foot injury that required surgery to have screws inserted. He failed to beat out the top talent at WR for the Raiders in 2015 leading to only one catch all season for eight yards. His early success gives him a chance to at least compete with Wilson for the WT2 job. His resume is stronger, but he has a lot to prove in 2016.
Chris Conley (WR) – In his four years at Georgia, Conley caught 117 catches for 1938 yards with 20 TDs. His best year was his senior season when he caught 36 passes for 657 yards with eight TDs. Chris has excellent size (6’2” and 213 lbs.) with plus speed (4.35 in the forty at the 2015 NFL combine), but his release and hands have some risk at the next level. His speed may play well in this offense as a one-dimensional speed threat. In his rookie season, Conley caught 17 passes for 199 yards and a TD on 31 targets.
De’Anthony Thomas (WR) – He has a lot in common with RB Dri Archer, but Archer has more speed and much more strength. He had an excellent start to his junior season in college with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games (252 yards and 5 TDs) before going down in Week 3 with an ankle injury that cost him over a month of the season. When he returned, De’Anthony wasn’t the same player he showed in his first two years at Oregon (2346 total rushing and receiving yards with 32 TDs). His biggest asset is his value in the passing game (113 catches in his career). At the combine in 2014, he ran a 4.50 in the forty yard dash which was just about NFL average for RBs. His eight reps in the bench press shows he has a lot of work to do before making an impact in the NFL. Thomas future value at the next level will be a pass receiving back on specialty plays where an offensive coordinator will try to get him matched up with linebackers. He has no value in pass protection so he’ll be on the sideline on most 3rd downs and long passing plays. As a runner, he won’t run the ball up the middle with success. He’ll offer speed to the outside, and he could be electric if he can get in the open field. Thomas is an upside returner, but his lack of strength could lead to fumbles. The Chiefs gave him 63 touches for 443 combined yards and four TDs (one on a punt return) in his first two seasons in the league. De’Anthony is young with explosiveness, but he suffered a bad concussion at the end of 2015.
Other options: Kenny Cook, Da’Ron Brown, Frankie Hammond, Kashif Moore, Mitch Mathews, Tyreek Hill
Tight End
http://www.scout.com/player/101569-travis-kelce?s=532
Travis Kelce (TE) – Even with 16 starts in 2015, Kelce only made a small step forward in production while setting career highs in catches (72), yards (875), and targets (103). His best success came over the first eight games of the year (40/538/3 on 55 targets). His failed to deliver an impact game over his last eight starts. On the year, his best game came in Week 1 (6/106/2) when Fantasy owners thought they struck gold. His resume is rock solid after two seasons in the league (139 catches for 1737 yards and 10 TDs on 190 targets). I expect growth in his opportunity in his third season in the league where 80 catches for 1000+ yards and upside in TDs is well within reach.
Scout Fantasy: Most Fantasy owners expected a lot more from Travis Kelce last year. He didn’t have a bad year per se, yet his numbers stayed flat. As Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed showed last year, it’s the TD totals that really make a TE take the leap from good to great. However, is it even possible for Kelce to have 10 to 12 TDs and produce like an elite TE1 when this offense might only produce 20 passing TDs all year?
Athan: A year ago Travis Kelce took that next step. So much so, the Chiefs gave him a new contract that puts him among the NFL’s highest-paid players at his position. To that light, Kelce has to improve his route running this season. He has all the tools to be the game’s very best but in last years playoff loss at New England, he was nowhere to be found. His no-show in that game, along with the injury to Maclin, does put into play his ability to change games. If he’s motivated by his new deal and uses the Patriots loss as motivation, I suspect he could reach double digits in Touchdowns and surpass 1,200 receiving yards in 2016.
Other options: James O’Shaughnessy, Ross Travis, Brian Parker, Demetrius Harris
Kicker
Cairo Santos (K) – The Chiefs gave Santos 78 scoring chances in 2015, which led to 30-for-37 in field goals (81.1) and 39 of 41 on extra-point kicks. He made four of his eight chances from 50 yards or longer. His most impressive game came in Week 3 when Cairo made all seven of his FGs. Also, he had a game with five made field goals in six chances and two games with three FGs. In his career, Santo has made 82.1 percent of his chances. Kansas City plays well defensively creating plenty of scoring chances for their offense. They tend to run the ball well leading to TDs inside the 10 yards line. He would have a top 10 opportunity for sure if he repeated his success in 2015.
Defensive Schedule
The Chiefs have a very favorable schedule for their run defense. They have nine games that rank well below the league average (SD X 2, OAK X 2, NO, IND, ATL, JAX, and TEN) based on 2015 data. Their two tough games will come against the Panthers and Bucs.
Kansas City has five bad matchups for their pass defense (SD X 2, PIT, ATL, and NO) plus Jacksonville has strength in their passing game. They only have three games vs. opponents with just below league average passing attacks (IND, CAR, and TEN). Overall, they have one of the toughest pass schedules in the league.
Defense
The Chiefs finished 8th in the league in rushing yards allowed (1571) with seven TDs. Rushers gained 4.1 yards per carry while attempting 23.9 runs per game, which about below the league average (26.3).
The 2015 season started with Kansas City struggling in their secondary due to Sean Smith being out of the lineup. They rebounded to move to 9th in passing yards allowed (3698) with 25 passing TDs, 22 Ints, and 47 sacks.
NT Jaye Howard played much better in his second season in the league where he had strength against the run while securing 5.5 sacks. DE Allen Bailey was an asset in run support while posting 4.5 sacks while missing four games. Kansas City will probably use him as a rotational player. DE Chris Jones will compete for playing time as an edge rushing after being selected in the second round in this season NFL Draft. NT Dontari Poe handled himself well against the run with no real upside rushing the QB.
Kansas City’s best two players on defense play at the linebacker position. LB Justin Houston offers impact value in every area of the game, but he suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last November. He didn’t have surgery until February, which puts his status for the start of the season in doubt. After recording 22 sacks in 2014, that number dropped to 7.5 last year. Justin is one of the best run defenders as well. LB Tamba Hali isn’t far behind Houston as far as talent, but he’ll start 2016 at age 32. He finished last year with 6.5 sacks with high value against the run. Derrick Johnson continues to be one of the best middle linebackers in the league with an edge against the runs and pass coverage. His game has no real upside rushing the QB. Their last spot in the starting lineup at linebacker belongs to Josh Mauga, who has weakness on early downs. His best skill set comes in pass coverage.
CB Marcus Peters appeared to be overmatched early in the season, but he finished on a high note leading him to be league average in pass coverage. Peters struggled in run support. CB Ron Parker was almost the same player as Marcus in all areas. He’s expected to play the strong safety position in 2016. Both players will have higher responsibilities with Sean Smith no longer on the roster. S Eric Berry returned to elite form after missing ten games in 2014. He offered an edge in coverage for his position while grading strongly in run support. The last starting slot is the secondary is up for grabs.
If Houston returns healthy, the defense should rank highly against the run. They have playmakers, which leads to turnover and TDs. The loss of Smith in the secondary could be an issue. I expect Kansas City to be a top five Fantasy defense drafted in 2016.
