Season Preview: Summer Tournament Impacts
All summers aren’t created equal. This summer we get to look forward to two excellent international tournaments – Euro 2016 and Copa America Centenario. With the Copa America starting tomorrow (Friday) and Euro squads being finalized, we can start looking ahead to how this summer’s tournaments are likely to impact the top half of the Premier League table next season.
The easy analysis would be to look at how many players each team is sending and just assume that the more players being sent the bigger the likely negative impact on the club sending those players. Not so fast. That top level analysis would imply that David Ospina and Wojciech Szczesny participating carries the same weight as Laurent Koscielny and Mesut Ozil. It also fails to take into account the potential positive aspects of young players who didn’t play a ton in the Premier League season like Marcus Rashford, Joel Campbell or Divock Origi getting to participate and potentially move forward.
With that in mind, here is my analysis of the clubs likely to be fighting for top four spots this coming season and the impact that this summer’s tournaments are likely to have.
Arsenal
Playing This Summer: Petr Cech, Jack Wilshere, Laurent Koscielny, Hector Bellerin, Olivier Giroud, Mesut Ozil, Wojciech Szczesny, Granit Xhaka, Aaron Ramsey, Alexis Sanchez, David Ospina, Joel Campbell
Total: 12; Starters: 6; Key Squad Players: 3; Reserves: 3; Over 30: 3
Analysis
Arsenal actually get off pretty easy this summer. A full quarter of the Gunners participating in big summer tournaments are goalkeepers. Yes, goalkeepers need rest too but certainly not at the level of field players. When you throw in that Jack Wilshere and Joel Campbell actively need competitive match time the picture is even brighter. The same could presumably be said about Granit Xhaka who could probably use some rest but is young and will likely benefit from being one of the leaders of the Swiss side. The big worries for the Gunners are Ozil, Sanchez and Koscielny who were all ever-present when healthy during the season and could use a rest. Particularly Sanchez who will be in his third summer tournament in three years and went deep in both of the first two.
Arsenal may purchase one or two more players – N’Golo Kante? Alvaro Morata? Ricardo Rodriguez? – who add to this list but the positive for the Gunners is that key players like Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal, Santi Cazorla, Mohamed Elneny, Francis Coquelin, Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Alex Iwobi all have the summer off if a couple of key players need some extra rest in pre-season and heading into the first matches of the upcoming campaign.
Best Case Scenario
Wilshere and Campbell gain valuable experience and sharpness with their sides. Aaron Ramsey rediscovers his mojo. Koscielny, Cech, Ozil and Sanchez stay healthy and maybe exit the tournament a little early. Xhaka and Bellerin take the next steps with their national teams and carry even more confidence into the 2016-17 Premier League season as a result.
Worst Case Scenario
Any significant injury to Koscielny, Sanchez or Ozil.
Chelsea
Playing This Summer: Thibault Courtois, Eden Hazard, Gary Cahill, Willian, Cesar Azpilicueta, Cesc Fabregas
Total: 6; Starters: 6; Key Squad Players: 0; Reserves: 0; Over 30: 1
Analysis
The bright side is that Chelsea’s squad is relatively untouched by this summers’ tournaments. The less bright side is that there’s a reason that players like Pedro, Oscar, John Terry, Diego Costa and Loic Remy – who have all featured prominently for their national teams in the past – have the summer off. The real hope for the Blues is that their Belgian duo of Courtois and Hazard rediscover the form that made them among the best in the world at their respective positions heading into this past season.
This analysis may also change significantly depending on how Chelsea’s summer in the transfer market goes. Like Arsenal, Chelsea are likely to buy from the top shelf and that includes players likely to be playing in either France or the US this summer. The difference is that Chelsea’s squad depth proved to be questionable last season.
Best Case Scenario
Hazard and Courtois are stars as Belgium make a deep run.
Worst Case Scenario
The only really tragic outcome would be a Gary Cahill injury as the Blues are already thin at center back with Zouma’s injury and Terry’s aging. They already need one center back in the transfer window and a significant injury to Cahill would mean a minimum of two would be required.
Leicester City
Playing This Summer: Christian Fuchs, Jamie Vardy, N’Golo Kante, Wes Morgan, Andy King
Total: 5; Starters: 4; Key Squad Players: 1; Reserves: 0; Over 30: 2
Analysis
Given that they are Premier League champions, the Foxes got off incredibly easily. Only five participants total and four starters means that the Foxes will be fairly well rested when they return for next season. Back to the business of keeping Kante and Mahrez from leaving for pastures new.
Best Case Scenario
Given that the two elder Foxes participating this summer – Christian Fuchs and Wes Morgan – play for teams that are unlikely to advance past the group stages, a summer that sticks to the script is a pretty solid outcome for Claudio Ranieri.
Worst Case Scenario
The Foxes don’t really have anyone who can reasonably approximate what Jamie Vardy does for them so an injury or ineffectiveness due to exhaustion for last season’s goal-scoring sensation would be a massive blow.
Liverpool
Playing This Summer: Simon Mignolet, Christian Benteke, Divock Origi, Nathaniel Clyne, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Daniel Sturridge, Emre Can, Martin Skertl, Danny Ward, Joe Allen, Philippe Coutinho
Total: 13; Starters: 6; Key Squad Players: 4; Reserves: 3; Over 30: 2
Analysis
It speaks to the frustrations at Anfield (or the pro-Liverpool bias in England squad selection) that the eighth place team in the Premier League has more players participating in summer tournaments than this season’s and last season’s champions combined. The positive for the Reds is that only two players going – Nathaniel Clyne and Philippe Coutinho – are nailed-on starters with most of the rest eminently rotate-able if they come back less than at their physical best. Liverpool are also sending two players – Divock Origi and Emre Can – who are in a position to take a step forward with strong showings rather than suffering from too much football without a break. This is definitely a case where the raw numbers make the situation look worse than it actually is.
Best Case Scenario
Origi and Can step up on sides that go deep in the Euros and Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho stay healthy.
Worst Case Scenario
Outside of a significant injury, there really isn’t a horrible scenario for Liverpool. They would selfishly prefer that England go out early to allow Clyne, Henderson, Lallana, Milner and Sturridge some rest but the squad is deep enough and will be bolstered by more inbound transfers that even a deep run by England and Belgium won’t be the worst thing in the world for Jurgen Klopp.
Manchester City
Playing This Summer: Jason Denayer, Kevin De Bruyne, Joe Hart, Raheem Sterling, Bacary Sagna, Eliaquim Mangala, Nicolas Otamendi, Sergio Aguero, David Silva
Total: 9; Starters: 7; Key Squad Players: 1; Reserves: 1; Over 30: 2
Analysis
Contrasting Liverpool’s summer participation with that of Manchester City is the perfect example of why deeper analysis than “how many players are playing” is important. Where Liverpool have 13 players going and City only have 9, it’s the details around those players that are important. In Sergio Aguero, David Silva, and Kevin De Bruyne, City have their three most important attacking players participating with all three having missed time this season due to injury. To make matters worse, all three are likely to play deep into their respective tournaments. Throw in that Kompany will miss out due to (another) injury and the two best remaining center backs – Otamendi and Mangala – will also be adding wear to their tires and this could be a rough summer ahead of Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge. The small potential silver lining is an opportunity for Raheem Sterling to rediscover his best.
Best Case Scenario
No one gets hurt and at least one of City’s big three attackers goes out of their tournament early.
Worst Case Scenario
A significant injury to Aguero and/or Silva. De Bruyne’s injury seemed like more of a random thing than a pattern but David Silva and Sergio Aguero seem to be in the frequent, nagging injury period of their careers. Both players have the double edged sword of playing for successful national teams. That has meant that Aguero has gone to finals over both of the past two summers and you wouldn’t bet against it happening again this summer. That’s a lot of football. Spain didn’t have a big tournament last summer but Silva appeared to be a bit of a fading force this past season due to injury and/or aging and a full summer of training and matches certainly isn’t going to help him rejuvenate. Both of these players seem primed for an injury either during their respective tournaments or early in the Premier League season as a result of the tournaments. City can’t afford for either to be at less than their best.
Manchester United
Playing This Summer: Marouane Fellaini, Chris Smalling, Wayne Rooney, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Matteo Darmian, Paddy McNair, Sergio Romero, Marcos Rojo, Antonio Valencia, David De Gea
Total: 12; Starters: 6; Key Squad Players: 3; Reserves: 3; Over 30: 3
Analysis
The story at Manchester United belies the number of players that are playing, this is likely to be a pretty good summer of tournaments for the Red Devils. In Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Paddy McNair and David De Gea you have four players who are getting to experience something new that can’t help but boost their confidence. You may wonder at De Gea’s inclusion in that list since he’s already considered among the best in the world at his position but as a potential Spain #1 for the first time there is still room for the keeper to grow. More obvious are the opportunities for Martial and Rashford to thrive in their first major tournaments. McNair isn’t expected to be a significant part of the United squad next season but big tournament experience could help change that or at least make him a more valuable asset in the transfer market if United decide to cash in. That same logic can even be applied to Marcos Rojo who parlayed World Cup success into a (failed) big money move to United. Perhaps a good Copa America can see his value pumped back up so United can sell at a smaller loss.
Best Case Scenario
Anthony Martial wins a starting job for the hosts and excels with Griezmann and Giroud around him and Pogba and Matuidi getting him the ball in better spaces than United’s midfield did during the season. Rashford gets to play some minutes as a substitute and looks bright while maybe even scoring an important goal.
Worst Case Scenario
David De Gea wins the Spain job and is so good that Real Madrid just HAS to have him this summer. Other than that, there’s not really a horrible scenario for United as the loss of elder statesmen Rooney and/or Schweinsteiger due to injury or fatigue might actually be a blessing in disguise for new manager Jose Mourinho.
Southampton
Playing This Summer: Fraser Forster, Ryan Bertrand, Graziano Pelle, Steven Davis, Cedric Soares, Jose Fonte, Shane Long, Gaston Ramirez
Total: 8; Starters: 4; Key Squad Players: 3; Reserves: 1; Over 30: 3
Analysis
There isn’t a ton of star power here but there is at least mild concern in that the Saints don’t have a particularly deep squad and having a few key players like Fonte, Bertrand, Davis, and Long tired means that there could be a significant drop-off in quality. I didn’t include Pelle in that group because the rumors have him headed elsewhere this summer.
Best/Worst Case Scenario
Shane Long had some niggling injuries down the stretch so the best case scenario involves him having a short, injury-free Euro run while the worst case scenario involves an injury to either he or the rock and the center of the defense, Jose Fonte.
Tottenham
Playing This Summer: Kevin Wimmer, Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen, Mousa Dembele, Kyle Walker, Danny Rose, Dele Alli, Eric Dier, Harry Kane, Hugo Lloris, Ben Davies, Erik Lamela, DeAndre Yedlin
Total: 13; Starters: 10; Key Squad Players: 2; Reserves: 1; Over 30: 0
Analysis
This is the price of Spurs’ new-found success. Christen Eriksen is the only regular starter from this past season who WON’T be participating in one of the two big tournaments and expecting to go into the knock-out stages. Going for Spurs is the fact that they players they are sending are on the right side of their physical primes and better able to absorb the extra hours of training and extra minutes of match action. The downside is that Mauricio Pochettino’s style is physically demanding and we already saw Spurs fade this past season without the entire squad having gone through summer competition last summer. Throw in the fact that they’ll be competing in the Champions League this season rather than the Europa League that they clearly didn’t prioritize. Whether it hits early in the form of fatigue-related injuries or late in the form of fading endurance and focus down the stretch, you get the feeling that Spurs are going to suffer a bit for the success of their players this season.
Best Case Scenario
England goes out at the group stages and the large English contingent gets a much-needed rest before training camp starts. Kevin Wimmer and DeAndre Yedlin take steps forward in their young careers and arrive ready to contribute even more next season as either key reserves (Wimmer) or assets on the transfer/loan market (Yedlin).
Worst Case Scenario
Harry Kane finally breaks down after playing a demanding style nearly ceaselessly for almost two years and the rest of the squad is too tired to compensate for his loss because they’re all in the famed Arsene Wenger red as well. Assuming that Arsenal, City, United and Chelsea are all at least improved over last season a lost month or two due to injuries could be the difference between Spurs challenging for a title again or falling out of the Champions League picture entirely.
West Ham United
Playing This Summer: Dimitri Payet, Angelo Ogbonna, Darren Rudolph, James Collins, Enner Valencia
Total: 5; Starters: 1; Key Squad Players: 4; Reserves: 0; Over 30: 1
Analysis
The analysis here is almost entirely about Dimitri Payet and good fortune. Payet is the only no-doubt Hammers starter that will be participating in a major tournament this summer. He is creeping toward 30-years-old (next March) and his importance to West Ham means that any injury suffered by the France international could set them back significantly. Otherwise, West Ham should look forward to being far better rested than most of their top half rivals as they head into their first season at the Olympic Stadium. That’s good news even before you get to the young players likely to improve (Antonio, Oxford, Cresswell, Byram, Lanzini).
Best Case Scenario
Dimitri Payet comes through the Euros healthy and doesn’t miss significant playing time recovering from his summer exertions.
Worst Case Scenario
Pretty much the opposite of the best case scenario. The Hammers suffered significantly when Payet missed time due to injury last season and it was the difference between sneaking into the Europa League and having Champions League football to look forward to this coming season.
Enjoy the tournaments!
