Draft Preview: NBA Draft Ranks: SG
The shooting guard position is a deep group again this year, including the two players who dominated the National Player of the Year voting in Buddy Hield and Denzel Valentine, along with a talented group of underclassmen. Here is a link to the point guard rankings.
One thing that is a bit different than what we’ve seen in past years is that there are a lot more shooting guards who are capable passers off the dribble, especially in the pick-and-roll. The versatility in the group should allow many to fit in well with the direction many NBA teams are going with increased spacing on the floor. There could be anywhere from six to eight players on this list chosen in the first round, with another four to six taken in the second round.
The players are listed in order of where they will go in my mock draft, though it doesn’t necessarily reflect how I see these players ranked in ability and long-term NBA potential.
1. Jamal Murray, Freshman, Kentucky, 6’4”, 207
Murray’s season was split into two distinct parts, the early season where he was reliant on trying to create his own shot opportunities, and the second half where the offense was adjusted to help get him open looks. As expected, he played much better in the second half of the season. Murray is an excellent spot shooter, and he does a very good job coming off of screens ready to shoot. Murray has a quick release and NBA three-point range, but he doesn’t have great size for the shooting guard spot and needs the time and space to get his shot against bigger defenders. There have been ideas that Murray could be a point guard, and while he is a good ballhandler and can make some good passes, he makes some really lousy decisions when he has the ball, so it’s tough to envision him as a team’s primary ballhandler, though you could run a few pick-and-roll sets for him. Murray’s biggest challenge will be on the defensive end, where he will have a lot of trouble with the speed and athleticism of NBA guards. Whoever drafts him will get some points on the offensive end, but be prepared for him to give up as many on defense.
2. Buddy Hield, Senior, Oklahoma, 6’5”, 212
I’m not sure there was a player who had a bigger impact on last year’s college season than Hield, who averaged 25 points per game on over 50 percent shooting, including almost 46 percent from three-point range. Hield worked to refine his shooting ability, quickening his release, increasing his range and showing an uncanny ability to knock down shots with a defender in his face. He can create his own shots, and can attack the rim effectively, though he can get a little wild when trying to score around the basket. Hield allayed some concerns with his measurements at the combine, and while not a great defender right now, he has the physical ability to defend NBA shooting guards.
3. Denzel Valentine, Senior, Michigan State, 6’5”, 210
Valentine, along with Hield, split most of the national Player of the Year awards after one of the best all-around seasons I remember in recent years. While Michigan State’s top scorer, Valentine also emerged as one of their primary ballhandlers, showing great vision and passing ability in the pick-and-roll. He is also a very effective long-range shooter, hitting over 100 threes, at a 44 percent clip. His versatility allows him to play on or off the ball, though at the NBA level, he would primarily play at the shooting guard spot. Like most players under Tom Izzo, Valentine has a great understanding how to play defense, even if he isn’t the most athletic guy, and he is a very strong rebounder for his size. Whatever team drafts him is going to get a guy who should fit seamlessly into most offensive and defensive schemes.
4. Furkan Korkmaz, International, Turkey, 6’7”, 185
Korkmaz, an 18-year-old from Turkey, is a very good shooter, with an emerging all-around offensive game. He has good size for the shooting guard spot, and has shown nice athleticism while also building his strength up to compete at the highest levels. Korkmaz still has some work to do creating shots off the dribble, but he has a scorer’s mentality, and he finds way to get his shots, even when he has defenders or tough angles to contend with. Korkmaz may have some trouble with NBA speed and strength, especially on defense, but he has very good awareness for his age, and he seems to have a knack for being in the right position to make a play. Korkmaz may benefit from a little more time overseas, but he has enough potential that an NBA team might want to bring him over as quickly as possible to speed up his development.
5. Malik Beasley, Freshman, Florida State, 6’4 ½”, 190
While many weren’t expecting Beasley to be a one-and-done player at Florida State, he emerged as one of the top freshman scorers and shooters in the country, averaging almost 16 points and shooting 39 percent from three-point range. Beasley is a good shooter in both the mid- and long-range areas, but he is a good enough ballhandler and strong enough to attack the basket. He still made a lot of the mistakes freshmen typically do, but he seemed to improve at a steady pace throughout the season. Defensively, Beasley is still inconsistent, but he seems to be fundamentally sound, and should eventually adjust well to the NBA. He should be a long-term value pick for a team that has the system in place to develop him in the first couple of seasons.
6. Malachi Richardson, Freshman, Syracuse, 6’6”, 200
Another surprise one-and-done, Richardson didn’t even look like he would attempt to enter the NBA Draft heading into March, but a very good NCAA Tournament during Syracuse’s surprise Final Four run changed things up. Richardson shot just 37 percent from the floor and 35 percent from three-point range on the year, but he does seem to have the makings of a versatile scorer, if he can show some consistency. He has good size for the shooting guard position, along with a seven-foot wingspan, but there is too much that is raw about his game. As with most Syracuse players, Richardson will need to answer some questions as to how he’ll defend out of the zone. He can be a good risk to take in the later first round, hopefully for a team that can send him to the D-League and let him develop.
7. Patrick McCaw, Sophomore, UNLV, 6’7”, 181
McCaw was one of the few bright spots for the Rebels during a tumultuous season, showing good development in almost all areas, while playing both on and off the ball. He has very good size for either backcourt spot, shows decent ballhandling skills and has the ability to score in a variety of ways. McCaw has a good first step off the dribble, uses his body well to get to the basket and can be a strong finisher, while also being able to knock down mid- and long-range jumpers somewhat consistently. His vision is good with the ball in his hands, though his passing and decision-making need some work, so he may spend more time playing off the ball. Defensively, McCaw can defend multiple positions, showing good footwork and awareness, plus his long arms help him to disrupt on the perimeter. McCaw doesn’t seem to excel at any one thing right now, but should be a versatile role player early on his career as he continues to develop.
8. Malcolm Brogdon, Senior, Virginia, 6’5”, 223
Brogdon, the ACC Player of the Year, has been a steady influence for Virginia the past few seasons, showing strong ability on both ends of the floor. He knocked down 39 percent of his three-point attempts last year, showing close to NBA range, and an advanced ability to move off the ball to get open for his shot. Solidly built, Brogdon also uses his body well to attack the basket, overpowering defenders and showing some strong finishing ability, along with good vision and passing ability. As is the Virginia way, Brogdon is also a very good team defender, having a great understanding of how to play different types of players, and showing good skills on and off the ball. Any team that drafts Brogdon will know exactly what they are getting with him – a smart, skilled player on offense and defense, though his athletic ability may not wow many people.
9. Caris LeVert, Senior, Michigan, 6’7”, 191
After promising starts to his junior and senior seasons, injuries derailed both years for LeVert, a long, lanky guard. LeVert shot over 40 percent from three-point range during each of his last three seasons, including 44 percent last year in 15 games. He also impressed with his ability to score and create off the dribble, especially in the pick-and-roll, allowing Michigan to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. LeVert used his length well on the defensive end, guarding multiple positions, and showing a knack for reading plays and creating turnovers. The injury problems have held him back a bit, but if he can stay healthy, he can be a great value pick in the second round.
10. Wayne Selden, Junior, Kansas, 6’6”, 232
After a heralded high school career, not many expected Selden to be at Kansas for three seasons, but inconsistent play plagued him for two years, before a very solid junior campaign. Selden hit 39 percent from long range this season, his best number during his college career, while also showing a bit more versatility on offense. He has good size and a big body, which he uses well to clear space, especially when going to the basket or coming off of screens. Selden can force the issue at the times, but he also has shown some ability to create for himself and teammates off the dribble, while also providing some versatile scoring in transition. Selden won’t be mistaken for a great defender, but he uses his body well to play physical defense against quicker guards, and he has shown improvement over the past three years. He is another guy who can prove to be a valuable role player for the team down the road with his shooting and versatility.
Others to Watch: Michael Gbinije, Syracuse; Sheldon McClellan, Miami, Ron Baker, Wichita State; Damion Lee, Louisville
