The Numbers Game: 2016 NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals are set to begin on Thursday, pitting a locked-in Cavaliers team against a record-setting Warriors team that survived a 3-1 deficit to escape the Western Conference finals. Golden State is only the 10th team in league history to come back from a 3-1 hole, giving them a wave of momentum heading into the Finals, but LeBron and the well-rested Cavs won’t be an easy out, to say the least.

Cleveland faces a ‘rust vs. rest’ question, as they’ll have been idle for five days prior to Thursday’s Game 1 in Oakland, but it’s a net positive for LeBron and company. At this stage of the postseason, LeBron is typically battling fatigue after carrying a massive burden, but the path to his sixth consecutive Finals has been considerably easier. He’s been able to choose his spots thanks to the presence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, and the Cavs’ role players have been shooting lights out — as a team they’re averaging 14.4 three-pointers on 43.4% shooting from downtown, both playoff highs. More on that later.

In two games vs. the Warriors this season, LeBron averaged just 20.5 points on 40.5% shooting, 7.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 35.5 minutes per game, but that tiny sample won’t mean much when the ball tips off on Thursday. During last season’s six-game Finals loss to the Warriors, LBJ piled up 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists in a ridiculous 45.8 minutes per game — exactly the type of one-man show the Cavs are built to avoid this year. The disparity between LeBron’s usage and efficiency last postseason, compared to this postseason, is striking:

It’s a whole new ballgame for LeBron this year, making it much harder for Golden State to simply load up against him defensively. Cleveland comes in with the best offensive rating in the playoffs (116.2 points per possession) and the best net rating (+13.4), and it’s worth looking into how their offense has been so efficient.

Cavaliers:

The Cavs aren’t afraid of isolation plays and post-ups, but spot-up shooting has easily been their biggest weapon. Their 3-point proficiency was noted earlier, and nearly everyone on the team is benefiting from wide-open shots created by the ability of LeBron and Kyrie Irving to collapse defenses and find teammates with crisp passing. Through 14 playoff games, Cleveland has six rotation players shooting at least 44% from downtown — Kevin Love, Richard Jefferson, Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Channing Frye. Frye’s role will be very interesting vs. Golden State — whereas his perimeter shooting was a conundrum for Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto, the Warriors are well-equipped to counter small lineups. 

The only Warriors’ five-man unit to appear in all seven games was none other than the vaunted ‘death lineup’ featuring Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. They struggled at times and finished the series with a negative plus-minus rating, but we’re sure to see plenty of them again vs. Cleveland. It’s entirely possible, moreover, that Iguodala will start over Barnes during the series – Steve Kerr made the switch in Game 7 vs. the Thunder, and it famously worked during last year’s Finals, catapulting Iguodala to the Finals MVP. Green’s defensive mobility could neutralize Frye on the perimeter, while creating a mismatch on the other end, and coach Ty Lue has some interesting choices to make with his frontcourt rotation. That’s especially true because Golden State is no less capable of going big.

After the ‘death lineup’, the next six most common lineups all featured either Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli or Marreese Speights. Despite limited minutes and paltry usage rates, the Warriors’ big men made the most of their opportunities against the Thunder — Festus Ezeli shot 70.0%, Andrew Bogut shot 69.6%, and even former Cavalier Anderson Varejao shot 66.7% in his relief appearances. Let’s take a look at how the Warriors’ offense has operated to this point in the postseason.

Warriors:

The Warriors’ high pick-and-roll with Curry and Green was complicated vs. the Thunder, who switched everything and used their length to disrupt the Warriors’ usual action. Kevin Love isn’t Serge Ibaka, to say the least, and we’re likely to see an uptick in plays ending with the ball-handler or roll man in the Finals. In Game 7 against OKC, Curry and Thompson torched bigger defenders from downtown, but off-ball action and secondary screens also created havoc. No team is deadlier on hand-offs (1.2 points per possession), and no team gets more shots courtesy of screens. Another focus for Cleveland’s defense, regardless of which schemes Ty Lue employs, will be stopping the Warriors’ fastbreak — only the Rockets averaged more looks in transition during these playoffs.

Then there’s the 3-point line. The Splash Brothers were in full effect during the Conference Finals, setting records for the most 3-pointers made in a playoff series while shooting their team out of a daunting 3-1 hole. Klay Thompson blitzed the Thunder for an NBA-record 11 triples in Game 6 alone, and the Warriors have scored 33.7% of their points from beyond the arc during the playoffs. Only two teams have relied more heavily on long-distance shooting — the Blazers and the Cavs (Cleveland has scored a whopping 40.5% of their points from deep).

Cleveland and Golden State have been comparable defending the 3-point line this postseason, allowing right around 34% shooting, but the Warriors were superior during the regular season (allowing 33.2% vs. Cleveland’s 34.7%). In a league that’s trended toward increased 3-point shooting, highlighted by the transcendent play of Steph Curry, it’s fitting that the NBA Finals features two teams that have found such success beyond the arc. The Cavs’ Big Three vs. the Splash Brothers. LeBron vs. Draymond and Iguodala. Cavs vs. Warriors. Here’s hoping for a seven-game series.

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