How the Warriors can repeat as NBA champions
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Golden State Warriors a 75 percent chance to repeat as NBA champions. However, they just escaped a tough seven-game series with the Oklahoma City Thunder and now have to refocus on a Cleveland Cavaliers team that seems to be playing its best basketball.
The toughest matchup for the Warriors, as is the case for any team, is dealing with LeBron James. Last season, Andre Iguodala earned Finals MVP honors in large part for how he guarded James.
When Iguodala was matched up with James, the Cavs scored 100 points per 100 possessions. When Harrison Barnes — the only other Warrior to guard James on at least 50 possessions during the Finals — drew the assignment, the Cavaliers scored 115 points per 100 possessions. Add in all of the regular-season matchups over the past two seasons, and Iguodala has had the best success in the league in guarding James.
In order to fully capitalize on this matchup, the Warriors need to recognize how the Cavs’ offense runs. Cleveland runs isolation on 12 percent of its possessions, the third-highest rate in the league, and James drives on 15.4 percent of his possessions and scores 1.0 points per drive.
When James is driving — whether Iguodala or someone else is guarding him — the Warriors’ bigs need to look to help right away. When a help defender is present on a James drive, his scoring rate drops by 4 percent, so if the Warriors can focus on this, they will accentuate the defensive advantage they have with Iguodala on James.
The Warriors also need to watch out for pick-and-rolls where James is working as the screener. On those plays, the Cavaliers are scoring 0.98 points per chance, and that number rises when the ball finds its way into James’ hands. If the Warriors focus on switching and denying James the ball on those plays, they can reduce the Cavaliers to scoring only 0.86 points per chance.
Offensively, the Warriors’ game plan should be is simple: Get the ball to whomever Kyrie Irving is guarding. Over the past two seasons, when Irving is matched up on Stephen Curry, the Warriors are scoring 117 points per 100 possessions. When Irving is guarding Klay Thompson, Golden State is scoring 115 points per 100 possessions.
There is no shortage of ways to take advantage of this matchup. When Irving is guarding the ball handler on pick-and-rolls this season, he is giving up 1.0 points per chance. When opponents drive on him, he is giving up 1.03 points per chance (1.07 when they drive left). In catch-and-shoot situations, Irving is giving up an effective field goal percentage of 62.3.
The NBA Finals tip off Thursday night and the Warriors are in the driver’s seat. Keeping James in check, while taking advantage of Irving’s defensive shortcomings, will ensure that they stay there.
