Draft Preview: NBA Draft Ranks: PG
Last year saw a pretty good draft when it came to point guards, but the crop is a bit thinner this year, though there will be at least four first round picks, and maybe as many as six. It is a group that is strong in pick-and-roll ballhandlers, but there are a lot of players who still haven’t found their shooting stroke.
A handful of these players could make an immediate impact, though adjusting to the NBA as a point guard can be rough for many, and take a good deal of time and patience.
The players are listed in order of where they will go in my mock draft, though it doesn’t necessarily reflect how I see these players ranked in ability and long-term NBA potential.
1. Kris Dunn, Junior, Providence, 6’4”, 220
There may not have been a more dynamic point guard in college basketball the past two seasons than Kris Dunn, who went back to school last year when he could have had a shot to be a lottery pick. The good news is Dunn won Big East Player of the Year for the second straight year, but he didn’t exactly improve on the areas he wanted to. Dunn has good size, is an excellent ballhandler and is tough to contain off the dribble. He is a very good creator, especially in transition and the pick-and-roll, and he does a great job getting to the rim, even against the toughest of defenders. Dunn can be a difference maker on the defensive end, using his length and quickness to disrupt the offense, on and off the ball, and he is also a good rebounder for his size. As I mentioned, he didn’t exactly make progress in the two areas where he needed to, perimeter shooting and decision making. Watching him shoot, he does look like he should be able to knock down shots somewhat consistently, but it isn’t the case, as he’s hit just 36 percent from long-range, which isn’t terrible, but he misses a lot of wide open shots. Turnovers have always been a problem, and for every spectacular play Dunn makes, he seems to make two that make you scratch your head. You hope he can sort these out long term, but if not, he still does enough well to give a team valuable minutes.
2. Wade Baldwin IV, Sophomore, Vanderbilt, 6’4”, 202
Baldwin has been an enigma the past two seasons for Vanderbilt, showing the physical skills which make you think he can be a star, but also making some really bad decisions that make you question how much value he can have for an NBA team. Baldwin is at his best in the open floor, showing good speed and using his body well to get to the basket. He is also a capable long-range shooter, hitting over 40 percent from three-point range. Baldwin’s aggressive play can get the best of him, leading to poor decisions, and while he can be a very good distributor, he can also waste a good amount of opportunities. With a wingspan over 6’11”, Baldwin can create problems on the defensive end, both on and off the ball, and once he develops a bit more discipline, he has a shot to be a high-level NBA defender. Baldwin’s physical ability is what’s appealing to NBA teams right now, but once he learns the nuances of the game a bit better, he can be a starter at the NBA level.
3. Demetrius Jackson, Junior, Notre Dame, 6’1”, 194
Jackson has been a steady influence at the point for the Irish the past couple of years as they made a run to consecutive Elite Eights in the NCAA Tournament. A very strong pick-and-roll ballhandler, Jackson shows the patience and decision-making skills that are necessary at the NCAA level, along with the athletic ability to make a difference on both ends of the floor. He doesn’t have great speed, but is crafty, and finds ways to break down defenses with his ability to draw defenders out of position. Jackson’s long-range shooting numbers took a dip last year, especially without the attention that Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton drew the prior year, but the mechanics and skills are there, and it shouldn’t be a long-term concern. His value comes in his ability to run his team’s offense efficiently and make smart choices, and while a bit undersized for today’s NBA, he is strong and doesn’t back down easily against bigger players.
4. Tyler Ulis, Sophomore, Kentucky, 5’10”, 149
Ulis, the SEC’s Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, may have been as smart a point guard as college basketball had last year, showing a feel for the game that you’d expect from a pro. Though just 5’10”, Ulis uses his size to his advantage wherever he can, especially in the pick-and-roll, where he can disappear behind screens, and seems to re-emerge in gaps in the defense. He sees the floor well, even among much bigger players, and his passes are on-point and in spots where his teammates can make a quick play. Ulis has some shooting ability in both the mid- and long-range areas, though hasn’t been able to find a consistent stroke, but he did become much better at creating his own looks off the dribble, which helps since he has a lot of trouble getting to the rim. Defensively, Ulis is a pest, using his size and quickness the best he can to pressure the ball as soon as it crosses halfcourt, which is almost necessary due to being most guards being able to overpower him to the basket. Ulis isn’t very strong, and at just 150 pounds, he is going to have problems defending NBA point guards, no matter how quick or how good a defender Ulis is, but he can be a solid back-up point guard down the road for an NBA team.
5. Dejounte Murray, Freshman, Washington, 6’5”, 170
In terms of athletic ability and potential, Murray may be at the top of this year’s point guard group, but he has a long way to go and he is at a point in his development where his negatives outweigh in positives. Murray has good size, sees the floor well and is very strong in transition, though his decision-making plagues him both on the break and in the halfcourt. He has shown some ability in the pick-and-roll, but he can have some trouble finishing at the basket, knocking down shots, or making his reads and good passes. Defensively, Murray uses his size and length well to make plays, but he takes a lot of chances, many which don’t pay off and put pressure on the defense. Murray needs a lot of development still, but with the right coaching staff, he can be a quality player in a few years.
6. Isaiah Whitehead, Sophomore, Seton Hall, 6’4½”, 210
Highly regarded coming out of high school, Whitehead struggled as a freshman, but seemed to really start to put it all together in the second half of his sophomore season. Whitehead is at his best on offense as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, using the screens and his strong body to get to the basket. He still has work to do as a distributor in that sense, and though he can be a lead guard, his strength is more in scoring than passing. Like many in this year’s group, shooting from the perimeter can be a problem, though for Whitehead it is more about shot selection than ability. Whitehead is dynamic with the ball in his hands, and his ability to keep defenders off-balance leads to a lot of openings for his teammates, though he has a tendency to try and force plays to happen. Defensively, Whitehead is active and tries to make plays, but needs some discipline, which goes for much of his game. There is a lot of raw ability in Whitehead’s game, but his poor tendencies need to be reined in for NBA coaches to trust him.
7. Gary Payton II, Senior, Oregon State, 6’3”,184
Payton, the son of NBA legend Gary, made a major impact at Oregon State the past two seasons, helping turn one of the Pac-12’s worst teams into an NCAA Tournament team. Payton is another strong pick-and-roll ballhandler in this class, showing a great ability to get into the defense, and strong vision and passing skills. He can be a spectacular finisher at the basket, though his shooting ability needs a lot of work, and he’s starting to be able to knock down open long-range shots. Like his father, Payton can cause some problems on the defensive end, showing great instincts, though a bit unorthodox in his approach at times. He is also a strong rebounder for his size, again showing good instincts and a willingness to battle anyone for a missed shot. Even with some poor shooting, Payton has the makings of a very strong backup at the NBA level, and if the shooting comes along, he could play a significant role for many teams.
8. Kay Felder, Junior, Oakland, 5’9½”, 197
The Horizon League Player of the Year, Felder posted an impressive 24.4 points and 9.3 assists per game this past season. Small and fast, Felder is a blur in transition, but even while moving at top speed, he has a great understanding of where he is and what decisions he needs to make. Felder has a quick first step, and is tough to contain in isolation. He is a creative shot-maker, knowing that he needs to make some adjustments due to his size, and he finds openings in the defense where there doesn’t seem to be any. Felder is a capable long-range shooter, though he needs space and time due to his size, but he knows how to use screens well to get the opening he needs. He is also a decent defender, and has some good strength for his size. Felder has the makings of a great change-of pace point guard off the bench at the NBA level, and if he can show that he can hang with NBA speed and strength on defense, he should have a very long career.
Others to Watch: Cat Barber, North Carolina State; AJ English, Iona; Marcus Paige, North Carolina; Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma
