BDL’s 2015-16 NBA Finals Preview: Warriors vs. Cavaliers
How They Got Here
For two defending conference champions with precious little roster turnover from last season, there has been a remarkable amount of change in the clubhouse for these two squads.
To start, the coaches that manned the sidelines all the way back in October when things tipped off won’t be standing much, or at all, during this Finals. Golden State’s Steve Kerr sat out the first 43 games of the 2015-16 season after complications from a pair of back surgeries and a spinal tap (complications that hound him to this day). Assistant Luke Walton led the Warriors to a 39-4 start in his absence before stepping aside upon Kerr’s return. The victories technically don’t belong on Walton’s record, but they did earn him a spot coaching the Los Angeles freakin’ Lakers, so it was a pretty swell payoff.
(Though he could use that 90.6 winning percentage to balance out what will be a rough first season in El Lay.)
On the surface, Cavaliers head coach David Blatt did a credible job running Cleveland to a 30-11 record this year, especially considering the slow start to 2014-15. It wasn’t enough for the Cavs, who fired him at the season’s mid-point in favor of Tyronn Lue, who led the team to a 57-25 season and the East’s best record.
This will be the first time in league history the Finals will start with two head coaches who weren’t on the sidelines to begin the season. A coaching switchover and eventual Finals berth hasn’t happened to an Eastern participant since 2006 (when Pat Riley shoved Stan Van Gundy aside in Miami) and since 1982 (when Riley replaced Paul Westhead in Los Angeles) for a Western finalist.
The note that Golden State created with its small lineups during last year’s Finals set the tone for both teams’ seasons.
The convenience of poor injury rehab from hulking Cavs center Timofey Mozgov and the shiny new contract for hybrid big man Tristan Thompson influenced the Cavaliers to eschew a typical center for most of the year. The Warriors still started Andrew Bogut at center, but do-it-all forward Draymond Green took a larger role in the offense and ended his first All-Star campaign with a spot in the second tier of the MVP race.
The Cavs kept winning with a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love … well, Kevin Love had an up-and-down year. Months later, we still don’t know which thoughts, outside of his overactive “beautiful mind,” went into LeBron James’ subtweets. James later stopped following the Cavs on Twitter, for whatever reason, while the team struggled to play consistently stout defense under Lue.
The Warriors, meanwhile, had a year for the ages.
The defending champs didn’t lose their first game until Dec. 12, after an NBA-record 24-0 start, and they needed the excuse of a double-overtime game the night before and travel over nearly half of America (losing an hour along the way) to finally submit. The team would post a 73-9 mark, best in league history, with Stephen Curry once again shattering his own 3-point record and winning his second consecutive MVP in an unanimous vote.
The Warriors opened the playoffs against an embarrassing Houston Rockets outfit that clearly did not want to be there, and were well on their way to a sweep when Curry (already smarting from an ankle injury) slipped and fell on a wet spot on the floor in Game 4, suffering a sprained MCL. Golden State still dispatched Houston, and the shock of an early potential exit without Curry was assuaged by a pair of Clipper injuries, but fears remained up to the minute Curry set the world on fire with his record-breaking overtime performance upon his return in the second round against Portland.
Still, worries lingered about Curry’s overall health as the Oklahoma City Thunder surprisingly ran out to a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference finals. Golden State extended its season with a rocky Game 5 win at home before cutting Oklahoma City to its core with a comeback win in Game 6. Game 7 was just as rough, for both sides, but the Warriors prevailed and will once again represent the West in the Finals.
Cleveland, for once, had a far easier go of things. After a tumultuous regular season, and in the wake of an injury- and suspension-laden 2015 playoff run, the Cavaliers breezed through the first two rounds, sweeping both the Pistons and Hawks while working up a devastating mix of perimeter ball, with trade deadline acquisition Channing Frye playing a pivotal role.
The Eastern Conference finals matchup with Toronto seemed to be working along the same lines until Toronto responded with a defiant Game 3 win following two Cavalier blowouts. Toronto held off a furious Cavalier comeback in Game 4 (as fears abounded about Cleveland’s screen-and-roll defense) to tie the series. Cleveland kept the Raptors at arm’s length with wins in Games 5 and the series-clincher, but the pierce in the armor is showing. — Kelly Dwyer
Head to Head
After knocking off the Cavs in six games in the 2015 NBA Finals, the Warriors took both regular-season encounters with Cleveland. Their Christmas Day meeting saw the Warriors win a grind-it-out slugfest reminiscent of last year’s title round, despite the presence of the two Cavalier stars who missed that series.
After missing all of the 2015 Finals due to a shoulder injury, Love pulled down a game-high 18 rebounds, but struggled elsewhere, scoring just 10 points on 5-for-16 shooting and having a hard time defensively against Golden State’s speed. In his third game back from the knee injury that knocked him out of the last five games of the Finals, a still-not-100-percent Kyrie chipped in 13 points on 4-for-15 shooting with two assists.
Their woes meant LeBron once again had to carry the offense; while he scored a game-high 25 points, he needed 26 shots to do it. Cleveland shot just 31.6 percent from the floor and 5-for-30 from 3-point land, producing buckets at a rate of offensive efficiency (83 points per 100 possessions) that made the 76ers look like the Seven Seconds or Less Suns.
Thanks to their defensive effort, the Warriors — playing without starting small forward Harrison Barnes, sidelined by a sprained left ankle — withstood comparatively quiet games from the Splash Brothers (37 points on 31 shots for Curry and Thompson) thanks to loud performances from Green (22 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, two blocks) and reserve Shaun Livingston (16 points on 8-for-9 shooting in 22 minutes), continuing their remarkable start to the season under Walton and pushing their record to 28-1.
The Cavs hoped to get even three weeks later at Quicken Loans Arena. Instead, they got embarrassed by a Western favorite for the second time in four days, succumbing in a 132-98 drubbing most memorable for accentuating what many believed would be the Cavs’ Achilles heel against elite opposition: the defensive deficiencies of Love (and Irving) in the pick-and-roll, as detailed by Coach Nick of BBallBreakdown:
The Jan. 18 beatdown briefly turned Love into a meme and sparked concerns about the Cavs’ ability to hold up defensively with Love on the floor:
The Warriors decimated Cleveland’s coverage, scoring 34 or more points in each of the first three quarters and leading by as many as 43 points in an utterly dominant victory, led by Curry (35 points on 12-for-18 shooting, 7-for-12 from 3), 2015 Finals MVP Andre Iguodala (20 points on 7-for-8 shooting, 4-for-5 from 3, five assists) and Green (16 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, just one turnover).
It was, as our Eric Freeman wrote, the “worst-case scenario for Cleveland.” Cavs fans hope for better things starting Thursday. — Dan Devine
Likely Starting Lineups
In perhaps the most transformational mid-Finals starting lineup change since Jerry Sloan replaced Bryon Russell with Adam Keefe partway through 1998’s title round, Kerr subbed Iguodala in for Bogut prior to Game 4 of the 2015 Finals with his team facing a 2-1 deficit. The Warriors would win the next three games and the title, with Iguodala taking Finals MVP.
Andre moved back to the pine for the 2015-16 season, starting but once in 65 games and watching as Livingston, Brandon Rush, and even Ian Clark worked ahead of him when injuries hit. With his team in dire straits yet again during Game 6 against OKC, however, Iguodala replaced Barnes to start the third quarter; the Dubs responded with a 60-point second half and eventual comeback win. Dre stayed in place for Game 7 as Golden State pulled out another similar comeback.
The price for all of this, potentially, is losing Barnes. And, somehow possibly worse, finding yourself in agreement with Mark Jackson on something.
The former Warriors coach made Barnes his sixth man upon the machinations that led to Iguodala becoming a Warrior before 2013-14, a move that makes all the sense in the world on the surface. Iguodala is a jack of all trades, but can’t create his own shot in the way that sixth-man scorers typically do. Barnes, meanwhile, needs the ball in his hands, which rarely happens alongside Curry and Thompson. Ideally, he’s the perfect black-hole scorer off the bench.
The move didn’t work, however, and the newly hired Kerr switched them before 2014-15’s championship run.
Barnes, worryingly, was a bit of a Jackson-era ghost after being replaced in Game 6 — just three points on one 3-pointer, one rebound, and a steal in over 13 total minutes. He had his moments in a +10 Game 7 run off the bench while pulling in eight rebounds, but otherwise he looked lost in his new role, missing four of six shots on his way toward five points in 22 minutes.
Harrison is likely to leave as a free agent this summer as it is, but is it worth tolerating the ghost during this Finals run? Meanwhile, the 32-year-old Iguodala played 38 and 43 minutes in Games 6 and 7 — the two highest marks of his season in non-overtime games. Is his all-out work against LeBron that desperate in the first quarter, ahead of Barnes?
Or does Kerr, staring down a smaller Cavalier lineup this year, sit Bogut and bring Harrison back into the starting fold?
What we do know is that Curry and Thompson will line up in a fearsome backcourt, with Green licking his chops as he stares down a Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams-less Cavalier starting unit.
For once, there is less intrigue with LeBron’s Cavaliers.
His teammates should include the same five that has marked the team’s 12-2 run through the postseason. LeBron will join Love and Thompson in the frontcourt, as all three try to fill the holes in a teammate’s head with their own personalized bump. Thompson is nominally a center due to his ability to protect the rim, but as always, this will have to be a team effort.
Irving will pair with J.R. Smith in the backcourt, charged with closing out on a couple in Thompson and Curry that seemed less and less insistent on driving pell-mell to the goal against Oklahoma City, much to OKC’s eventual detriment. There have been whispers, especially in light of his sound defensive showing in last year’s Finals, that pugnacious guard Matthew Dellavedova could find his way into the starting unit alongside Irving, but that seems like a long shot at this point. — KD
Key Matchups
• Love and Irving vs. the Warriors’ hunting. You can usually get away with one weak defender; most NBA lineups feature at least one player without the offensive game to torch a mismatch. Getting away with two is much tougher … especially when the opponent has enough firepower and depth to minimize, or even eliminate, potential safe havens. That’s the problem the Cavaliers face.
Starting straight-up means Irving guards Curry and Love guards Green. Whenever the Warriors see those matchups, they’ll bring Green to the ball and try to pick-and-roll Cleveland to death, making Irving chase Steph around screens, and forcing Love to tread water in the deep end of the pool.
Step up to take away the quick 3, and you’re susceptible to a blow-by off the dribble. Step back to take away the drive, and either Green (who struggled against Oklahoma City’s length, but shot 38.8 percent from deep this year) steps into an open pick-and-pop jumper, or the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history plays Pop-A-Shot. Get caught in-between and watch Curry drop a pocket pass that gets Draymond going downhill against a compromised defense in a 4-on-3 rush.
Switch the backcourt assignments to get the bigger, defensively improved Smith on Curry, and Kyrie’s got to deal with Klay, who’s four inches taller, can shoot over the top of Irving, and just averaged 29.7 points on 50 percent shooting from 3 in Games 5, 6 and 7 against Andre Roberson and an army of better, longer help defenders. (With all due respect to his playoff work on Kyle Korver and, at times, DeMar DeRozan, I’ll need to see J.R. stick with Steph to believe that’s a better matchup for Cleveland, anyway.)
Whichever small forward the Warriors play, Barnes or Iguodala, might be friendlier for Irving. He’d still give up a lot of size to guys who can take advantage, though, and that’d force LeBron to guard Steph or Klay, which might be a more taxing assignment than Lue wants to give him unless absolutely necessary.
Put the more mobile Thompson on Green and flip Love to the Warriors’ other big and Love can more safely drop back toward the paint on the pick-and-roll, since Bogut, who has taken just 23 shots from farther than 10 feet out this year, won’t hurt you outside. (The same holds true for Festus Ezeli and Anderson Varejao; the math changes when Splash Cousin Marreese Speights checks in.) But that takes Thompson away from the rim, making Love Cleveland’s last line of defense. Considering opponents shot 54.1 percent against Love within five feet of the rim this year — sixth-worst among rotation bigs contesting at least five up-close shots per game — that’s not ideal, either.
And that’s before we consider Kerr pulling Bogut for Iguodala, activating the “Death Lineup” that tilted last year’s Finals, incinerated the NBA this season, and bounced back from a brutal start to the Western finals to outscore Oklahoma City by 17 points in 25 minutes over the final three games of the series. Maybe you keep Love on Iguodala there, and just hope Iguodala doesn’t hit the 3s he gets off the Warriors’ ball movement or beat slower bigs off the bounce when he gets a chance to catch and go. (As Justin Rowan of Fear the Sword suggests, Barnes might be an even better hiding spot for Love against the Death Lineup; again, that means Kyrie’s got to take Steph or Klay.)
When the Warriors’ offense is humming, there just might not be any good places for Love and Irving to go … except, perhaps, to the bench, in favor of more minutes for Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert. If that’s not Lue’s choice, then Kyrie and Kevin have to have the defensive series of their lives, because as fantastic as the Cavs’ offense has been this postseason, it’s hard to see them simply overpowering the Warriors on that end enough to win four times in seven games.
27.1 percent of their own misses (which would’ve been the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the league last year, and No. 2 this year) and 51.8 percent of all available misses (third-best last year, sixth this year). Their glass-cleaning was even more impressive when Thompson and Mozgov shared the floor, helping limit Golden State to one shot and giving Cleveland a ton of second chances. That prompted Kerr’s mid-series downshift, which ran the Cavs off the floor in Game 4, which prompted Blatt to go away from Mozgov in Game 5, as the Warriors took control.
• Battle of the boards. In the 2015 Finals, the Cavs bullied the Warriors on the glass, reboundingMozgov lost his starting job in January and has been excised from the rotation in the playoffs, with Thompson, Love and Frye splitting center minutes. The Love-Thompson combo has been nearly as dominant on the glass this postseason as Mozgov-Thompson was against the Warriors last year, hauling in 31.6 percent of offensive rebound chances and 55.6 percent of total rebound opportunities in 343 playoff minutes. Frye-Love’s been better on the defensive boards but worse on the offensive end in 51 minutes, while Frye-Thompson has hoovered the glass in a smaller 35-minute sample.
The Thunder came within one game of toppling the defending champs partly by dominating the glass with superior size, athleticism and effort. Thompson and Love must lead a similar charge.
• Catch the tempo. The run-and-gun Warriors led the NBA in “pace factor” (number of possessions per 48 minutes) last season, and finished second this season. The more measured LeBron-led Cavs finished 25th among 30 NBA teams in 2014-15, and 28th this year. Golden State has averaged 101.7 possessions per 48 minutes this postseason; only the first-round-swept Pistons and Grizzlies have played slower than the Cavs’ 91.8 possessions-per-48.
Cleveland’s been devastating on offense, averaging a blistering 116.2 points per 100 possessions and shooting 43.4 percent from 3 as a team. But beneath all that long-range bombing and those LeBron runout dunks, the Cavs prefer to slow things down, limit turnovers and maximize individual opportunities; 19 percent of their postseason possessions have ended in either isolation plays or post-ups, according to Synergy Sports Technology, compared to 15 percent for Golden State.
The Warriors, on the other hand, like to put the show on speed. Kerr’s crew prioritizes the search for offensive flow, seeking early-attack opportunities through freewheeling read-and-react screening and motion that leaves opposing defenses flummoxed and cross-matched — the marks in a hardwood version of Three-Card Monte in which defenders can’t find the lady until she’s firing from beyond the arc. During the playoffs, 16.5 percent of Golden State’s offensive trips have ended in transition, compared to 13.8 percent for the Cavs.
If the Warriors get stops and defensive rebounds, they can run and wreak havoc. If the Cavs make shots or clean the offensive glass, they can grind. (Which Lue insists the Cavs don’t want to do; again, I’ll believe that when I see it.) Whichever team can get to its preferred pace more frequently stands a good chance of dictating the terms of engagement. In the NBA Finals, that’s gold.
• LeBron vs. Iguodala (and, really, everybody else). Iguodala won Finals MVP last June in large part due to how hard he made LeBron work to score and facilitate … which, of course, James still did, averaging 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists in 45.7 minutes per game, albeit on 39.8 percent shooting.
Even limiting LeBron, though, was enough to tilt the series, and Iguodala (with help behind him) did that. James shot 38.1 percent when Iguodala was on the floor and 43.9 percent when he was off it during the 2015 Finals; the Cavs dominated the Warriors by 30 points in the 65 minutes James played with Iguodala on the bench, while Golden State outscored Cleveland by 55 points in the 209 minutes during which James had to contend with Iguodala’s length, strength and savvy.
In last year’s Finals, though, LeBron was carrying virtually Cleveland’s entire creative load on his shoulders, and had done so for most of the preceding rounds, averaging 39.8 minutes per game against the Bulls and Hawks without Love and with Irving hobbled by injury. This year, James enters the postseason averaging about two fewer minutes per playoff game, coming off five days of rest, and with much more offensive help.
On the other side, Iguodala has averaged about four more minutes per game through 2016’s first three rounds than he did in the run-up to the 2015 Finals. He’s coming off 232 minutes of high-leverage and often exemplary work in checking Kevin Durant — including a start and 43 minutes in Game 7 — and has a 48-hour turnaround for Game 1.
With Love, Irving and Frye in place, the Cavs have more weapons to use in keeping Golden State’s help defenders honest. If the help’s late in coming — or if there’s no help at all — and if LeBron’s a bit fresher and Iguodala’s a little worse for wear, the Warriors could be in real trouble, because no other Warrior, even two-time Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Green, can consistently and credibly quiet the King. — DD
How the Warriors Could Win
The Cavs can’t reproduce Oklahoma City’s hellacious defensive effort, giving Curry, Thompson and Green more space, clearer passing lanes and cleaner looks. Green replicates the late-series success he enjoyed against Cleveland last year, avoiding the early-series struggles that led Golden State to dust off David Lee. Kerr finds the right rotation mix to slow the hammer LeBron-and-the-bench lineup, which has torched opponents by 46.6 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. Curry, not James, is the most dominant force in the series.
How the Cavaliers Could Win
Reverse that last sentence. Love, Irving and Smith play the best defense of their lives and make Golden State pay on offense. Thompson dominates the offensive boards, and Frye defends and rebounds well enough to keep making an offensive difference. The ball movement and shot-making that has carried Cleveland through three rounds holds up, proving too overwhelming for even the Warriors to turn back. — DD
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 10 out of 10. Steph vs. LeBron. Steph vs. Kyrie. LeBron vs. Dre. Klay vs. J.R. Draymond vs. everybody.
One team looking to defend its title and complete the résumé that legitimizes its entry in the Best Team Ever conversation. Another looking to mend a region’s broken heart and prove that, at the end of every hard-earned day, there really was a reason to believe.
Superstars, boatloads of skill, a metric ton of 3-pointers and all-time stakes. This will be freaking awesome. — DD
Prediction: Warriors in 7.
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