Three Things to Watch: Golden State vs. Oklahoma City, Game 7
The 2016 Western Conference finals will be decided by a Game 7 on Monday evening. The Golden State Warriors, working from home after returning from a 3-1 series deficit, will take on a smarting Oklahoma City Thunder club.
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Here are three things to watch, in a setting that could turn into something special:
Steve’s Shuffle
One would be rather foolish in presuming that Golden State’s issues – the ones that pushed them toward a 3-1 series deficit in the first place – have completely gone away. Warrior coach Steve Kerr still has his work cut out for him.
A solid, if not resounding win in Game 5 didn’t take care of things. Game 6’s swish-happy comeback hardly did away with the woes. The Warriors are still facing down the same potential mitigating factors as it hops into a happy Game 7 as it did staring down that 3-1 mark, or those gigantic one-sided affairs that marked their first two trips to Oklahoma City.
The team’s starting lineup and rotation remains at Oklahoma City’s mercy, at times. Center Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green are often bullied out of harm’s way (that’s a bad thing, they need to rule the paint) by their quicker and longer OKC counterparts in Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka, while the quickness and timing that allowed Stephen Curry to end so many defensive possessions by sneaking in for a rebound could be completely taken away by an on-point Russell Westbrook or Andre Roberson.
Stephen finished with eight defensive boards and 10 overall in Game 6, and his defensive rebound rate is stellar in the series. Still, the Warriors were absolutely decimated by the Thunder on the offensive glass in the minutes that led up to that fourth quarter comeback, and Golden State can’t once again rely on an outrageous shooting night from Klay Thompson to make up for things.
The Warriors are to be credited by how they handled the glass during OKC’s miserable fourth quarter, but longer stretches that allow for Oklahoma City’s length and quickness to rule the day could present GSW with an insurmountable hole to dig out of at some point.
Then there are the rotation issues, ones that forced Kerr into what was barely a seven-man order in Game 6.
Festis Ezili is down to mere cameo appearances even with the Game 6 re-emergence of Thunder big man Enes Kanter, as Kerr is clearly fearful of the game getting away from his Warriors should Ezili be fouled intentionally. The same goes for Leandro Barbosa, down to just a minute here and there even with the similarly underwhelming Randy Foye acting as a counterpart – Kerr just isn’t comfortable letting his season go with Curry and Thompson on the bench.
As such, the burden falls on Shaun Livingston to make himself more of an offensive threat once the play breaks down, and his woes on that end are hurting Golden State during Shaun’s spot minutes. Livingston has missed 21 of 32 shots in the series, including all four attempts in Game 6, and his inability to convert on those baseline feints or short jumpers has to right itself.
Despite potent play of late, Stephen Curry is still not at 100 percent, and Klay Thompson (we think) won’t set another NBA record for three-pointers made in a playoff game. A sea of yellow shirts is not going to make all the difference: Golden State has already lost once at home in this series, and Steve Kerr will have to think on his feet should the Thunder come ready to play.
That last part is worth wondering about.
Durant’s Distance
Slyly – it’s hard to tell with a stroke as pretty as his – Kevin Durant etched out a career as a rather underwhelming three-point shooter in the postseason.
The career 38 percent guy is down to just under 33 in the playoffs, and just 27 percent during this postseason. He’s shot 9-35 in this series, a 25.7 percentage.
Now, it’s expected that efficiency and marks both box score-derived and advanced will dip down in the playoffs. Just approximating your regular season numbers is a triumph, as not only does the competition improve during the postseason, but rotations shorten and teams are allowed the ability to hone in on a specific set of scorers over the course of two weeks and a long series – as opposed to flying in the night before on a flight from Dallas, only to be put up at some haunted hotel.
On top of that, Kevin Durant is a 7-footer with a remarkable set of gifts. That he’s even out there taking 35 three-pointers in six games is a tribute to his versatility.
Still, KD is playing the bulk of his minutes at small forward, and small forwards need to act as a threat from behind the arc. Durant wasn’t lights out in comparison to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson from long range during the regular season – 38.6 percent – but a better percentage has to go down if he’s going to be taking nearly six per game.
Part of this might have to do with some untenable habits left over from the Scott Brooks Era.
Brooks wasn’t a terrible coach overall in Oklahoma City, there is something to be said about there being something more to coaching than just Xs and Os, and that something will be said once we see how Brooks does in Washington this season. Oklahoma City’s offense in the fourth quarter of Game 6, however, was embarrassing – even for the 99 percent of national fans who were, let’s be honest, rooting breathlessly for a Game 7 and more, more, more of this series.
The passing was non-existent, and even the unsustainable strains of hero ball weren’t bothering to show up. “Hero ball” for the Thunder isn’t always the worst thing to behold, not with players as skilled as Durant and Westbrook on board. Not only can it win a quarter for you, it can win games and even a series. You don’t want to rely on it, but it isn’t the worst thing in stretches.
The Thunder couldn’t even manage that in the fourth quarter, failing to get into possessions quickly and looking flustered when Golden State dared move its feet defensively and forcing the team into secondary options. Options that were mostly swallowed up because, again, OKC couldn’t be bothered into working its way into sets (if you can call them that) earlier in the shot clock.
The Oklahoma City Thunder can win if Kevin Durant goes 1-6 from behind the arc, though it wouldn’t be ideal. They cannot win if that stagnant offense shows up again for anything more than brief stretches in Game 7.
Legacy Laundering
In a series with such great potential, this part truly is a shame.
Typically when two teams play brilliant basketball and fight each other nearly to a draw, the “nobody should have to lose this series”-cliché pops out, and for good reason. Sometimes it really isn’t fair for those pairings to only go seven games.
This has been a fun series, but it would be a stretch to say that both teams have been at their best throughout. Coaches have been out-coached, both sides have been blown out, and the Thunder fell back on a dizzying batch of bad habits late in Game 6.
What’s worse is the talk that will ring from the last day of May until October. Or, if we’re honest, until either team finishes its 2016-17 turn.
Oklahoma City would have plenty of reasons to look back fondly on 2015-16 should they lose on Monday evening, but it will be hard to get away from the fact that – following two massive blowout wins – they failed to outscore the Warriors during one 48-minute term just once in three tries that followed.
There is no shame if Golden State falls short of a championship in either this round or the next, in spite of that 73-win record. Sometimes opposing teams with lesser records just match up well at the exact worst time, and the “better” team is outplayed. Just ask the 1973 Celtics or 2007 Mavericks. It happens.
What would follow such a loss, however, will annoy to no end. Re-hashed comparisons to the 1996 Bulls (“they had to go through Mourning, Ewing, Shaq and then Shawn Kemp and they only lost three times, man”) and, probably, musings on the trope that an offense centered on bombing from 25 feet away (even though this is absolutely not what Golden State’s top-ranked offense is centered on) can dry up during the playoffs.
That’s the cynic’s expectation, ahead of a game that someone has to lose.
What we are getting is a Game 7, though. One that doesn’t feature the Pacers or the Heat or, sorry Toronto, the Raptors.
The NBA’s inarguable best team will be taking on arguably its toughest opponent (alas, those dearly departed Spurs) in a setting that said opponent looked quite comfortable in during long stretches during both the regular and postseason. Four years after falling in Miami, prior to a series of heartbreakingly-timed injuries, the Thunder have a chance to right a ship that we had just assumed would have docked in three follow-up Finals by now.
Two brilliant teams featuring five of the NBA’s best players working under two young and alert head coaches could give us a classic in Game 7. That’s worth any annoyance that comes after it.
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Kelly Dwyer is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops
