Basketball Daily Dose: Dose: Game 7 Preview
By now you’ve probably already heard all the statistics regarding Game 7s. That teams leading a series 3-1 who were pushed to a Game 7 are only 7-7 when on the road. That the team with the No. 1 seed is 28-3 in Game 7s all-time, or that of the 36 teams that have lost Game 6 at home with a 3-2 lead, only 12 of them have emerged victorious in Game 7. And while all these are handy little statistics that point towards Golden State being favored to come out on top Monday night, in my opinion all of these stats are largely irrelevant as zero of them involve Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant. Just like how the Warriors were undeterred by the statistic that only nine teams in NBA history had overcome a 3-1 deficit, the Thunder probably don’t think much of the stats being reeled off at their expense.
The atmosphere at “Roaracle” arena in Oakland, California on Monday night is sure to be electric, so let’s take a look at what both teams will need in order to come out on top.
Keys for Golden State:
X-factors: Draymond Green & Andre Iguodala.
Yes, Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry need to bring it as well, but it’s Green and Iguodala that need to act as the missing pieces to the puzzle for Golden State.
Let’s take a look at Green and Iguodala’s win/loss statistics.
WIN
Green: 11.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.3 triples, 1.7 steals, 2.3 blocks, 2.0 turnovers; usage – 14.1
Iguodala: 10.0 points, 3.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 7.0 FGA; usage – 11.8
LOSS
Green: 11.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 triples, 1.7 steals, 1.0 block, 4.0 turnovers; usage – 20.9
Iguodala: 7.7 points, 3.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 5.7 FGA; usage – 10.0
As the statistics shows, Green has at times stepped outside of his role in this series, trying to do way too much to the detriment of the team. Iguodala, on the other hand, has been a bit too passive in the Warriors’ losses, and the play of these two individuals is going to be paramount to the Warriors’ success. Iguodala displayed some excellent defense against both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant during Game 6, and while Steve Kerr said after Sunday’s practice that he doesn’t anticipate starting Iguodala for Game 7 (gamesmanship?), I’d be shocked if Iggy didn’t play massive minutes Monday night. Simply put, he’s a far superior option to Harrison Barnes.
Steph gon’ Steph… but efficiently?
The repeat MVP always brings numbers to the box score, but he’ll need to be bringing efficiency as well during Game 7 for the Warriors to come away with a W. Through three losses in these Conference Finals Curry has shot just 37.3 percent from the field, however, that number spikes to 47.4 percent in wins. Unfortunately for OKC, Curry has shot a ridiculous 50.0 percent from the field when at home through the postseason so far.
No rebounds, No Rings
As Pat Riley once famously said, “no rebounds, no rings,” and that statement has definitely held true through this series. Aside from Game 5, where each team collected 45 boards, the winner of the rebounding battle has emerged victorious in every game of this series. Golden State will need to keep Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams off the glass if they’d like to make their second consecutive Finals appearance.
Keys for OKC:
Ball movement
The Thunder have looked like two completely different teams over the past six games. In wins, they have appeared to be an unstoppable juggernaut guided by the brilliance of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, with the ball moving seamless from left to right. However, in losses they’ve been “team hero-ball,” with guys standing around watching as they become overly dependent upon the brilliance of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Those iso-heavy tendencies will need to fall by the wayside during Game 7 if the Thunder hope to upset the Dubs.
The fourth quarter of Game 6 for OKC was iso-play after iso-play, with either Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant dribbling out the shot clock and eventually forcing up a tough shot. When the Thunder play with such little ball movement, it allows the Warriors to load up in the paint, and they know when they bring in a help defender that the ball isn’t going to be swinging in another direction. That is not the way that OKC played when they took a 3-1 lead in this series, and they simply cannot continue the hero ball trend. Both Westbrook and Durant will need to be better decision makers during Game 7.
X-Factors: Dion Waiters & Serge Ibaka
Consistency has been a major issue for these guys, and whether or not they bring it has often meant the difference between a win and a loss for OKC.
Here’s their win/loss numbers:
WIN
Waiters: 11.0 points, 1.7 triples, 54.2 percent shooting
Ibaka: 14.0 points, 1.7 blocks, 51.4 percent shooting
LOSS
Waiters: 3.3 points, 0.7 triples, 20.0 percent shooting
Ibaka: 9.7 points, 1.0 block, 42.3 percent shooting
Waiters has looked like a perfect fit during wins, and well, Dion Waiters during losses. Ibaka is the third-highest paid player amongst the Thunder starters, and it’s time he starts acting like it. When the 2015-16 season concludes, Ibaka will have banked away $12.3 million to average 11.8 points, 6.4 boards and 1.4 blocks through OKC’s postseason run. As a reference point, that’s more money than Kemba Walker, Kyle Lowry or Stephen Curry will have taken home this season. I don’t want to delve too heavily into the Thunder’s misappropriation of funds, but Enes Kanter is OKC’s third-highest paid player, and he has been largely irrelevant during the Western Conference Finals with averages of just 5.7 points and 4.5 boards over 12.7 minutes. Kanter should be more than an X-factor, but he hasn’t even entered the equation.
Basically OKC will need Waiters to play the best game of his life and Ibaka to live up to his potential to have a real shot of winning Game 7.
Prediction
Despite the enormous amount (and perhaps superior) talent that is on OKC’s roster, I just can’t go against the defending champs at home for a Game 7. They’re the hot team right now, coming off of two straight wins, and while the home crowd won’t be a significant advantage, it will be an advantage none-the-less. Monday’s Game 7 will likely come down to a handful of possessions, so the team that makes the least mistakes will come out on top; I’m giving the edge to the squad that only lost nine times through 82 games during the 2015-16 season.
Side note: Of the three teams to overcome a 3-1 deficit in Division/Conference Finals, all three went on to win a championship: Boston (1968 & 1981), Washington (1979).
