With some games, the final score tells but a sliver of that story, and that was indeed the case with Saturday’s White Sox-Royals match.
The Royals prevailed 8-7 (box score), which sounds compelling enough, but take a look at where things stood heading into the the ninth …
As you have already figured out by using simple arithmetic, the Royals trailed 7-1 heading into the ninth. The White Sox squandered a leadoff single by Tyler Saladino in the road half of ninth, and then it was the Royals’ turn. As mentioned, they needed six tuns to tie, and they had three outs left. That’s when all of this happened …
And the people say: #Larduhmighty. Indeed, KC plated seven runs in the bottom of the ninth. Seven! And that was enough for the walk-off win. On that point …
That was the largest ninth-inning comeback in Royals history.
— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) May 28, 2016
The Royals have been in business since way back yonder in 1969, and not until Saturday had they come back from down six or more in the final frame.
Let’s take this in terms of percentages. Here, via FanGraphs, is a look at the win expectancy chart from this game, which shows you each team’s chances of winning the contest at any given point …
As you can see, after Paul Orlando struck out looking for the first out of the bottom of the ninth, the Royals’ chances of winning dropped to 0.1 percent. Put another way, the odds of the Royals coming back to win after the first out of the ninth were 1,000-to-1.
Even after cutting the lead to 7-5, the Royals had less than a five percent chance of winning following the Lorenzo Cain fielder’s choice that accounted for the second out. The big needle-mover? Drew Butera’s double that plated the tying run moved KC’s chances of victory from 14.1 percent to 60.7 percent. This, of course, is the same Drew Butera who entered Saturday with a career batting line of .185/.241/.269.
Also, let’s recognize Brett Eibner, who, playing in his second major-league game, tallied two hits in that miracle ninth. Speaking of Eibner, here’s the killing blow …
The Royals on Friday night of course came back to beat the White Sox after being down 5-2 in the seventh. This, though, is something else altogether.
As a consequence, the Royals are now four games over .500 for the first time in more than a month, and they’re now 4-1 against the White Sox. More to the point, they’re now tied in the standings with those same Sox. If this four-horse race in the AL Central winds up being as tight as it’s been lately, then this game may be remembered for quite a while.
