Three Things to Watch: Golden State vs. Oklahoma City, Game 5
The Oklahoma City Thunder, in a shocker rightfully unseen some 25 days ago, is on the verge of downing both the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors in consecutive rounds.
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The Thunder need a Game 5 win on Thursday night, in Oakland against the famed 73-win Warriors, to make the NBA Finals. Fighting for its legacy, the Warriors will attempt to pull together for one last round. Scratch that, “two more chances at making it to the next round.”
It won’t be easy. Here are three things to anticipate:
Steve, Looking Out for Stephen
The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski, in those vaunted early hours of Wednesday morning, confirmed what was already obvious: “[Stephen Curry]’s playing at 70 percent, at best,” a source close to Curry told The Vertical.
Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr, doing his job, followed with this:
“Nobody has said anything about Steph being 70% to me,” he said. “Our training staff, relatives, friends, sources with knowledge of our team’s thinking — nobody has told me he’s 70%, so apparently they told the media but they haven’t told me.”
Of course Steve Kerr is not going to cop to anything, because it wouldn’t benefit his team, nor Curry, to admit that playing on a sprained right MCL just a month after spraining it – in the playoffs, no less – is not ideal. I mean, it’s not as if Steve Kerr had front row seats to Dennis Rodman’s disastrous play in the wake of Dennis’ own sprained MCL prior to the 1997 playoffs.
Stephen Curry is not the same as he was during the regular season. His side to side movement has changed, his shooting setup has changed, and his ability to mix economy of movement plus precision and timing has been hamstrung. The guy isn’t a shell of his former self, nobody should be shocked if he approaches 40 points in Thursday’s Game 5, but Things. Done. Changed.
None of this is taking away from what Oklahoma City has also done. OKC does not have a 3-1 lead because Stephen Curry is hurting … but his hurt doesn’t hurt.
Is it nigh on impossible to thread those Steve Nash-styled wraparound passes through Oklahoma City phalanx of long arms and active hands? Of course, but the fact that Curry is not turning the corner as quickly as he did in the regular season plays into that. The Rod Strickland-styled finishes around the hoop aren’t falling, mostly because of OKC’s bigs, but also because Curry looks unsure about which leg to bound off of, and which hand to finish with.
Russell Westbrook is able to cheat off of obvious Curry passes to help teammates, and still recover in time to either chase Curry off of a shot, or bait him into the sort of looks that have made him a star from 24 feet on out. For all of Westbrook’s MVP-level play, this isn’t all on him.
Pair Oklahoma City’s effort and execution up with a healthy Stephen Curry, the one we saw from October to April, and you’d still have a 3-1 series lead for the Thunder. In a series that has seen the Thunder outscore Golden State by 31 points and down the champs by an average of 26 a game in two home wins, it’s hard to reasonably argue against as much. The Warriors have been outplayed.
Stephen Curry isn’t the same, though. The Thunder have a whole heck of a lot to do with his sub-standard play, but they don’t have everything to do with it.
Maybe not as low as 70 percent to do with it, but certainly not 100 percent of it.
Oklahoma City’s “Small” Lineup
It wasn’t just one steal. We like to focus on these sorts of easy-hit moments, but this went beyond one silly play.
With less than a minute left in the first quarter of Game 4, Kevin Durant made good on his own turnover by swiping an outlet pass sent off of a deflection by Shaun Livingston. It stopped a Warrior fast break, always a good thing, and Golden State’s attempt to make the contest a two possession game heading into the second quarter – good news following an opening period that saw the defending champs mostly working down double digits.
Like, super [something] yawn. Livingston is a fine passer, but it was a bad outlet. Kevin Durant is 7-feet tall with long arms and he has massive hops: KD is supposed to grab that ball. In the seconds that followed, Thunder swingman Dion Waiters stepped out of bounds, and Golden State did eventually head into the second period with a two-possession deficit to deal with. It’s not as if that interception changed the course of the Western World.
It was the rest of Durant’s defensive effort in Game 4 that, while understandable for someone with his gifts, set the tone. And Waiters, in ways that should remain shocking until the sun calls it a night, is a huge part of that.
Dion Waiters is now the team’s first reserve off the bench, in a defensive move. The choice pushes Steven Adams – he of the aching thumb, ankle, and Gentleman’s Vegetables – to the bench in favor of a long lineup that has to be seen to be believed. Mostly because we’d rarely seen it this season, and didn’t believe it could create championship hopes out of thin air until this week.
The move somehow inspired Durant to turn into a Scottie Pippen of sorts; in ways that go well beyond those bad attempts at making Pippen-esque entry passes that we saw Kevin work through earlier in the series. Durant isn’t allowed to roam, but he is allowed to react. With the knowledge that Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and (especially) Andre Roberson can hold down the defensive glass, Durant is allowed to fill in the holes while benefitting greatly from Ibaka’s resurgence and Waiters’ due diligence.
(Waiters even kept things in check during Game 4 following a series of calls that didn’t go his way. He mean-mugged, and then moved on. Who is this guy?)
The Warriors will be ready for this lineup in Game 5, but as it was all season with Golden State’s own small lineup, how much of this will actually matter?
The Screens That Were
Oklahoma City has effectively made mincemeat out of the Draymond Green/Stephen Curry screen and roll, and Green’s ankle (or any resultant guilt over missing out on a Game 4 suspension) can’t be used as an excuse for Draymond’s poor play.
The man can’t telegraph hits to cutters off the post. The guy has to be aware of praying hands diving in to poke a dribble away from behind as he leads yet another fruitless break. These are junior high-level mistakes that, once reviewed on film endlessly in the hours between Games 4 and 5, can either send Green into a tailspin, or steel his reserve.
What’s left to wonder, as Steve Kerr and his crew ready for what could be the team’s final game of the season (on May 26!), is how much the Warriors will utilize their Swiss Army Knife in Game 5.
Not because he’s in a funk or because his presence makes the Warriors’ home arena untenable, but because these matchups often don’t work out. Green’s turnover rate, in comparison to his regular season turn, is actually slightly down in this series, and his usage rate is about the same as well. What matters isn’t the obvious play – Andre Roberson picking the ball from behind him on the break – but the note that begins that can eventually destroy all.
Serge Ibaka has Green’s number when they match up at center, or power forward. With Curry pushing a screen and roll that may never return to the realm of the potent, Kerr might rely on a more orthodox attack to win things. Andrew Bogut in the post, working cutters while reminding himself of the fact that Klay Thompson was a few iffy calls away from a legendary performance in Game 4. Marreese Speights, forever an underrated passer, finding teammates and denting hips.
Bogut is key, and he has to stay in the game. Steve Kerr, former Yahoo Sports scribe, did the statistical work for us on Wednesday:
“He’s fouling,” Kerr said. “He’s got 13 fouls in 56 minutes. He’s almost fouling out of every game in 10-15 minutes. He’s got to be smarter with his fouls. We need him out there — he was plus-7 (Tuesday) night in 11 minutes.”
Kerr might not push for an inside-out attack, but he clearly isn’t going to be able to rely on Curry’s touch around the rim nor his ability to make 45 percent of things from 25 feet away from the rim.
There will have to be changes, and for all the talk about how Golden State needs to firm up its transition defense and how Oklahoma City’s measured defensive approach of its own has reduced a champion into a cornered chipmunk, the Warriors can still extend its season with offense.
And if they can’t, they’re out. And it’s not even June, yet.
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Kelly Dwyer is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops
