Axisa: Back end of Giants rotation needs work
There is not a hotter team in baseball right now than the San Francisco Giants. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 games overall to improve to 28-19 on the season. Only the Cubs (29-14) have more wins in 2016. Things are going so well for San Francisco that they’re now winning games on dropped pop-ups.
The walk-off dropped pop-up will surely be everyone’s lasting memory of Monday’s game. Do not forget about Johnny Cueto’s performance, however. Cueto held the Padres to two singles and no walks in the complete game shutout. He struck out six, got 16 ground ball outs, and allowed only four balls to be hit out of the infield. Cueto was dominant.
Monday’s game improved Cueto to 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA (163 ERA+) in 10 starts and 75 2/3 innings this season. His 2015 season with the Reds and Royals was good, not great (3.44 ERA and 117 ERA+), but right now he looks like the Cueto of old. Remember, Cueto had a 2.48 ERA (156 ERA+) in 677 1/3 innings with Cincinnati from 2011-14.
Great starting pitching is nothing new for the Giants. They’ve been getting outstanding work from Cueto, fellow free agent signing Jeff Samardzija, and incumbent ace Madison Bumgarner. They’ve been the best 1-2-3 rotation punch in all of baseball this season. Check out their numbers:
IP | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | FIP | WAR | |
Cueto | 75 2/3 | 2.38 | 163 | 0.99 | 2.19 | +2.3 |
Bumgarner | 66 1/3 | 2.17 | 179 | 1.12 | 2.95 | +1.6 |
Samardzija | 64 1/3 | 2.66 | 146 | 1.03 | 2.76 | +1.8 |
Three aces, basically. The Giants have three aces in their rotation at the moment. That’s 206 1/3 innings of high-end production. They’re all workhorses too. San Francisco committed $220 million over 11 contract seasons to Cueto and Samardzija hoping for production exactly like that.
Those three starters have led the way for the Giants so far this season. The back of the rotation has been really shaky, however. Veterans Matt Cain and Jake Peavy have combined for 18 sub-replacement level starts this year. Look:
IP | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | FIP | WAR | |
Cain | 52 | 5.37 | 73 | 1.46 | 4.46 | -0.4 |
Peavy | 41 2/3 | 8.21 | 48 | 1.90 | 5.12 | -1.3 |
Yikes. Cain and Peavy are the reason to Giants only rank 11th in baseball in rotation ERA (3.72) despite that stellar work from Cueto, Bumgarner, and Samardzija. Cain and Peavy have failed to complete five innings six times in 18 starts, so they’re draining the bullpen too.
Now, to be fair, Cain has pitched much better of late. He’s gone at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs in each of his last three starts. His ERA has dropped from 7.84 to 5.37 during that time. The same is not true of Peavy, who allowed five runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last start.
As good as they are, the Giants are not blessed with a ton of minor league pitching depth. No-hitter hero Chris Heston has a 4.45 ERA in Triple-A, and pitching prospects Clayton Blackburn (5.51 ERA) and Chris Stratton (6.02 ERA) aren’t exactly lighting Triple-A on fire either.
The Giants do have warm bodies available — Ty Blach (3.75 ERA) has performed the best of their Triple-A starters — and sure, Peavy has been so bad that it’s not unreasonable to think one of those minor league arms would be an upgrade. There’s nothing that feels like a slam dunk upgrade though.
Cain is a legacy player with another $44 million coming to him this year and next, so his leash is going to be pretty long, especially considering his recent performance. Peavy is in the final year of his contract this season though, so removing him from the rotation would be an easier pill for the Giants to swallow.
For now the Giants are winning, so there is no real sense of urgency to improve the rotation. They probably can’t keep running Peavy out there every fifth day for the rest of the season though, especially if he doesn’t show any sort of improvement. The Dodgers may be struggling right now, but I can’t imagine that will last forever.
The Giants have a knack for making great in-season pickups — their World Series titles in 2010 (Pat Burrell), 2012 (Marco Scutaro, Hunter Pence), and 2014 (Peavy) were all aided by midseason additions — and adding a starter at the trade deadline seems like an obvious move for San Francisco. Rich Hill strikes me as a great fit in particular too.
Right now the Giants are in first place and playing extremely well, thanks in large part to the work of Cueto, Bumgarner, and Samardzija. Their offense is very good and the bullpen is generally strong. The back of the rotation stands out as a clear weakness, and something the team figures to address as they pursue their fourth World Series title in seven years.