The Numbers Game: Numbers Game: Conference Final

Welcome to another playoff-themed edition of The Numbers Game, focusing on the four teams still battling for supremacy in the Conference finals. Both series stand at 2-1 after Sunday’s impressive blowout win by the Thunder, whose 133 points tied a franchise record in a playoff game. The Warriors only gave up 133+ points one time all season, in a loss to Portland, and it’s worth taking a closer look at how OKC was so successful.

Billy Donovan deserves credit for adjusting his scheme on the fly, switching everything defensively while relying more heavily on small lineups with Serge Ibaka at center. To this point in the playoffs, OKC’s three highest-minute lineups (five or more appearances) have all featured Steven Adams with Ibaka and/or Enes Kanter. In just the first half of Sunday’s game, however, Ibaka played more than 10 minutes without either Adams or Kanter. He then played 8:40 at center in the third quarter, a period in which Adams logged just 3:20 and Kanter never stepped on the court. He might have approached 25 minutes as the team’s center if the fourth quarter wasn’t garbage time.

Even the Thunder’s small lineups are still long and athletic, and they successfully pestered Golden State by switching on pick-and-rolls, part of the reason the Warriors shot just 41.3 percent (30.3 percent from downtown). Nor did it hurt them on the boards, as they won the rebound battle 52-38. Offensively, they shared the ball and penetrated at will in halfcourt sets, while dominating in transition with 29 fastbreak points. All told, they racked up a whopping 62 points in the paint — for perspective, the Bucks led the league this season with 50.6 points in the paint per game. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant were their superstar selves, combining for 63 points, but much credit is due to Dion Waiters, Andre Roberson and Serge Ibaka, all of whom knocked down open shots while digging in at the other end.

Stephen Curry said in a postgame press conference, “Our offense didn’t allow our defense to get set, we took a lot of quick shots that didn’t go in, and gave them that advantage in transition.” Steve Kerr will assuredly make some adjustments prior to Game 4, but Golden State’s failings weren’t entirely schematic — they seemed listless during a crucial stretch in the second-quarter when OKC blew open the lead, and guys like Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes were simply dreadful. Speaking of Draymond, there’s plenty of discussion about his below-the-belt kick on Steven Adams. He claims he was simply selling the foul by kicking out his leg, as many players do, but the action came after the whistle and a few camera angles give the distinct impression that Green knew exactly what he was doing. Dahntay Jones was recently suspended one game for a similar crotch-shot on Bismack Biyombo, and the league’s decision about whether to suspend Green for Game 4 will be a major factor in the series. We should learn his fate by Monday night. If he is suspended, expect to see a lot of Andre Iguodala, with the possibility of more minutes for Bogut, Festus Ezeli and Marreese Speights.

Meanwhile, in the East, the Cavaliers are looking to recover from a Game 3 loss in Toronto, during which they shot just 35.4 percent from the field while being out-rebounded 54-40. Kevin Love vanished with just three points on 1-of-9 shooting and his production has tailed off precipitously in the Conference finals. In the first two rounds of the playoffs he posted eight consecutive double-doubles while averaging 18.9 points and 12.5 rebounds. In three games vs. the Raptors, those averages have dropped to 12.0 points and 4.3 rebounds. It’s hard to imagine him struggling this badly all series — after all, Toronto is starting Luis Scola at PF.

Tyronn Lue said that he should have run more plays for LeBron James in Game 3, which is worth remembering for DFS purposes. He had a usage rate of 28.1 percent in that game, which should rise to the mid-30s on Monday. LeBron is already the leading DFS scorer in the Conference finals, as we’ll see below, and DeMarre Carroll has done nothing to dent his fantasy appeal.

For the Raptors, Bismack Biyombo was too much for Cleveland to handle, gobbling up 26 rebounds, and DeMar DeRozan poured in 32 points during the win, during which he sank 8-of-15 contested field goals. He’s known for taking tough mid-range jumpers and when the ball gets to him it often sticks — 47.5 percent of DeRozan’s touches in Game 3 resulted in a pass, the lowest rate (by a wide margin) of any player on either team.

In fact, DeRozan has the third-lowest pass-to-touch ratio in the Conference finals, with only Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson below him. Here are the 15 players who have the highest ratio in the Conference finals, followed by the 15 players with the lowest ratio (minimum 20 touches per game):

Highest Ratios in Conference Finals:

Lowest Ratios in Conference Finals:

*All of the numbers above come from NBA.com/stats.

It’s no surprise that the ‘low ratio’ group is more appealing for DFS purposes. Nearly all DFS leagues give huge weight to scoring, so a group of zero-conscience gunners should fare better than guys who like to swing the ball. Even a player like Speights, for instance, averaged an excellent 1.1 DFS points per minute this season thanks to the fact that whenever he touches the ball, he’s shooting the ball. Now that we’re explicitly discussing DFS, let’s dig a little deeper.

The sample size is tiny, and game-by-game adjustments will continue to change players’ roles, but it’s worth taking a look at where players stand for DFS purposes. Below are the DFS averages for everyone in the Conference Finals, how much they cost on FanDuel, and their relative value-to-price ratio (the higher, the better). I’ve eliminated a handful of guys who aren’t in the rotation, or play bit roles, and the list is arranged in descending order by total value:

This provides a baseline to set expectations, but the numbers are simply a reflection of what’s occurred, not what will occur. Andre Iguodala already looks like a solid value, and he’ll be a borderline must-own player if Draymond is suspended. Steven Adams has been good but owners will have to weigh the risk of reduced playing time if OKC decides to once again play small for the bulk of Game 4. Jonas Valanciunas is questionable for Game 4 on Monday, complicating the fantasy outlook for both himself and Bismack Biyombo. By incorporating the above information about production relative to price, however, it becomes easier to start building a winning lineup. Good luck this week!

Let’s block ads! (Why?)