MLB Stock Watch: Maybin rising, King Felix and Upton falling
STOCK UP
Odubel Herrera: After walking 28 times over 495 at bats last season, Herrera has 30 over 147 ABs so far in 2016. His .438 OBP ranks fourth best in all of baseball. Walk rates for batters typically stabilize around 120 plate appearances, and Herrera is up to 181 on the year, so this sure doesn’t look like a fluke. For someone who stole 34 bags as a 19-year-old in the minors (in fewer than 120 games), his modest 6-for-9 SB success rate has been disappointing, especially given how often he’s been on first base. But it’s hard for fantasy owners to complain too much, as he was a later round pick and is on pace to finish with a line of .327-96-15-50-23. Herrera was also a steal for the Phillies, as the Rule 5 pick has already accumulated 1.9 WAR this season.
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Cameron Maybin: Patient owners (and those with DL slots) have been rewarded, as Maybin has multiple hits in three of his first four games back while recording a steal during each contest. It feels like he’s been around forever, but Maybin is still just 29 years old, and he combined for 33 homers/steals last season in 505 at bats. He’s a career 80 percent successful base stealer, and it’s clear he has the green light in Detroit. Maybin is somehow owned in just 19 percent of Yahoo leagues, but that number should quickly start to rise.
Trayce Thompson: He entered spring training somewhere around fifth on the Dodgers’ outfield depth chart, but seven weeks into the season, Thompson has been one of the team’s best hitters and is a fixture in the lineup (now batting ahead of Yasiel Puig). Klay’s little brother quietly owns an .897 career OPS with 11 homers over 204 at bats. He doesn’t have noticeable splits, so there’s no reason to platoon him, and if he keeps hitting like this, Thompson will keep his job even after Andre Ethier eventually returns. Thompson is owned in just seven percent of Yahoo leagues. His wRc+ (142) is right on par with Nolan Arenado’s (145).
Rick Porcello: Thanks to a career high 8.59 K/9 rate, Porcello’s 1.09 WHIP is easily a career low. In fact, his next lowest was 1.23, and his career mark is 1.35. He’s due for some regression, as his .266 BABIP is likely unsustainable given his groundball tendencies (his career hit rate is .311), but the newfound strikeout ability should help counter that, and wins should remain plentiful with the Red Sox’s bats on his side (he’s been given a whopping 6.0 runs of support per start).
Jonathan Lucroy: After a relatively slow start, Lucroy has homered in three of the past six games and suddenly owns the highest OPS (.862) among all catchers in baseball (he also leads the position in runs scored with 23). He’s back to the hitter he was before last season’s injury-riddled down year, and with the catcher position being as thin as ever due to injuries and poor performance, Lucroy is an extremely valuable fantasy commodity.
STOCK DOWN
Felix Hernandez: It’s unusual to put a pitcher with a 2.47 ERA on the stock down list, but there are too many red flags with Hernandez not to be concerned. A sub-2.50 ERA rarely comes with a 1.20 WHIP, and his 9.3 K-BB% not only is a career worst, but it’s nearly half his career mark (16.2%) and ranks No. 83 among all starters. King Felix’s 8.8 SwStr% is also a career low (he’s fanned four batters or fewer in five of his last six starts), as is his average fastball velocity (89.9 mph), which is nearly two full mph lower than last season. There’s no doubt Hernandez can remain a successful pitcher with diminished stuff, but if there’s anyone in your league who still values his big name (and current shiny ERA) like a top fantasy SP, now is the time to shop him, as this pitcher no longer resembles the King he once was.
Jason Heyward: He’s taking walks and has a handful of steals, but Heyward just recently hit his first homer of the season this week. Dating back to last year, he’s hit five home runs over his past 448 at bats, and his current .282 slugging percentage is the third lowest among all hitters in baseball (his .611 OPS is the lowest among all right fielders). To make matters worse, Heyward exited Friday night’s game with an injury suffered while making this fantastic catch.
Lucas Duda: Since May 5, he’s batting .170 with just one RBI and two extra-base hits over 41 at bats. Duda’s .240 BABIP is nearly 50 points below his career mark (.287), but his BB% (7.9) is easily a career worst, and his Hard% (34.0) is his lowest since his rookie season. He’s been downright worthless against southpaws (.042/.115/.167), so fantasy owners should at minimum be platooning him if at all possible.
Kendrys Morales: He was the No. 33 ranked fantasy hitter last year, but Morales has been brutal so far in 2016, sporting an anemic .196/.251/.333 line. The switch-hitter has been especially bad against right-handed pitchers, whom he’s posted a .466 OPS against. First base is deep, so it makes sense fantasy owners are getting impatient, as Morales is only owned in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues after having a preseason ADP of 126.
Justin Upton: At some point, a slump becomes meaningful, and Upton is entering that territory. He has a long track record of being an above average hitter but sits with a .599 OPS on May 20, having yet to homer this month. He also has just one stolen base attempt on the year after attempting 24 last season (admittedly it’s tough to steal when not on base). Upton has played in 41 games this season. He’s struck out at least once in 38 of them. He’s always been a streaky hitter, and it’s possible the ugly start can be chalked up to something as simple as joining the American League for the first time in his career, but Upton’s 37.3 K% is by far the worst in baseball, and just imagine how ugly his batting average would be if not for his .354 BABIP. The major league record for strikeouts in a season is 223. Upton is on pace to finish with 253.
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