Axisa: Things to know about Indians' hot streak
Friday night in Boston, the Cleveland Indians beat the Boston Red Sox (CLE 4, BOS 2) for their fifth consecutive win. Combined with the Chicago White Sox ‘s loss to the Kansas City Royals (KC 4, CWS 1), the Indians are now only 1 1/2 games back in the AL Central. They’re actually tied in the loss column; the ChiSox are 25-17 and the Indians are 22-17.
Last season the Indians were a trendy World Series pick because of their deep rotation, though it never did come together, mostly because their team defense was a major weakness. Cleveland took steps to improve that weakness over the winter, and now they are very much a force to be reckoned with in the AL. They’re averaging the second-most runs scored (4.87) and fifth-fewest runs allowed (3.92) in the AL.
Here are four things to know about the red hot Indians, including a look ahead at how they could improve their roster going forward.
1. They have one of the game’s best middle infields.
In Francisco Lindor , the Indians have one of baseball’s truly great shortstops and brightest young stars. He’s a franchise player in every way. He’s a great hitter and a great defender, and he has the kind of infectiously upbeat personality you can’t help but love. Lindor is the kind of player every team wants as the face of their franchise.
Lindor gets most of the attention and that’s understandable, but don’t forget about his double play partner Jason Kipnis . Kipnis hit a big three-run home run in the team’s win over the Red Sox on Friday. By WAR, Lindor and Kipnis are one of the most productive middle infields in all of baseball. Here are the combined stats for MLB’s five best double play combinations in 2016:
Players | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | WAR |
Carlos Correa & Jose Altuve , Houston Astros | .305/.397/.526 | 16 | 4.3 |
Xander Bogaerts & Dustin Pedroia , Red Sox | .319/.370/.484 | 10 | 3.7 |
Lindor & Kipnis, Indians | .310/.364/.449 | 9 | 3.2 |
Ketel Marte & Robinson Cano , Seattle Mariners | .284/.326/.483 | 13 | 3.1 |
Addison Russell & Ben Zobrist , Chicago Cubs | .287/.399/.432 | 10 | 3.1 |
Lindor and Kipnis may have the lowest combined home run total of those five middle infields, but they have the second-highest batting average and third-highest on-base percentage, plus their defense is very strong, especially Lindor’s. Their total package makes them one of the best double play combinations in the game.
The best way to build a great team is by being strong up the middle, meaning at catcher, center field, and on the middle infield. The Indians are certainly very strong at second base and shortstop with Kipnis and Lindor.
2. Salazar is emerging as an ace.
Aside from the New York Mets , no team in baseball has a collection of power arms as impressive as the Indians. They’re led of course by former Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber , who held the high-powered Red Sox to two runs in seven innings Friday night. The Klubot is a true frontline starter capable of dominating even the best lineups.
Carlos Carrasco started the season as the team’s No. 2 starter, though he’s been out of action for a few weeks after pulling a hamstring covering first base. During Carrasco’s absence, 26-year-old right-hander Danny Salazar has emerged as the team’s second-best starter, pitching to a 1.80 ERA (243 ERA+) in eight starts and 50 innings. He’s struck out 61 and allowed only 27 hits. 27 hits!
Salazar has not come out of nowhere. He threw 185 innings of 3.45 ERA (123 ERA+) ball last season, so this is a young man who is making the step from good pitcher to great pitcher this season. Check out his ranks among the 105 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title this year:
Strikeout Rate: 31.0 percent (5th)
Ground Ball Rate: 51.4 percent (25th)
Soft Contact Rate: 23.2 percent (15th)
Average Fastball Velocity: 94.5 mph (8th)
There is no better way to be a successful pitcher than to combine lots of strikeouts with lots of weakly hit ground balls, and very few have done that as well as Salazar this season. He throws hard, he misses bats, and he prevents opponents from getting the ball airborne. He’s been dominant.
3. They have big-time help on the way.
The Indians are 22-17 even though their best player ( Michael Brantley ) has played only 11 games and their No. 2 starter (Carrasco) has made only four starts. Brantley had shoulder surgery in the offseason, came back, then had to be shut down with renewed soreness. Carrasco has been out with the hamstring injury.
There is no timetable for Brantley’s return right now — “There’s no timetable listed, because there isn’t one. It’s completely on how he feels,” said manager Terry Francona to reporters, including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, earlier this week — though a recent MRI showed no damage in his shoulder. It’s just inflammation. He could return as soon as early June.
Carrasco, on the other hand, threw 38 pitches in a simulated game Thursday and will throw another simulated game Monday. If all goes well, he’ll then begin an official minor league rehab assignment late next week. Carrasco is currently looking at an early-June return as well, at which point he’ll bump the Cody Anderson/Mike Clevinger (combined 7.82 ERA) tag team out of the rotation.
Brantley and Carrasco are impact players, and the Indians haven’t had them for most of the season. Their returns are not imminent, but they’re not far away either. Both players are going to give the team a big shot in the arm once they’re activated off the DL.
4. They could still use some help at third base and catcher.
The Indians are not perfect. No team is. They’ve managed to win five straight and climb back into the AL Central race despite getting limited offensive production from the catcher and third base positions. Look at their overall numbers:
Catcher: .176/.241/.366 (77 OPS+)
Third Base: .231/.296/.320 (62 OPS+)
Not great! Cleveland picked up Juan Uribe late in the offseason to shore up the third base position and it hasn’t worked out so far. He’s 37 years old and he’s done with best work in recent years as a part-time player. The Indians thrust him into a full-time role that might be too much for Uribe at this point of his career.
Catcher is a different story. The team is locked into Yan Gomes behind the plate — he’s owed roughly $20 million through 2019 — so casting him aside isn’t so easy. Uribe is on a one-year contract and if the team needs to replace him, they can do it. That’s not the case with Gomes. They both want and need him to turn things around.
The Indians are without regular backup Roberto Perez , who has a long-term thumb injury. They recently picked up Chris Gimenez in a minor trade to back up Gomes. The team could look to acquire a more established backup to lighten the load on Gomes going forward. That’s really the only significant change they can make behind the plate.
Third base is another story. The Indians have the freedom to make a bigger move there, specifically trading for a regular player and pushing Uribe into a reserve role. Two trade options immediately come to mind:
David Freese , Pittsburgh Pirates : Jung Ho Kang ‘s return makes Freese (102 OPS+) expendable — he’s played only five games since Kang’s return and two were at first base — and he’d fit Cleveland’s need for an everyday third baseman who preferably hits right-handed to balance their lineup. Freese is on a one-year deal, so he’s a pure rental. The Pirates have the infield depth to part with Freese and they could use some pitching. The Indians have arms to spare.
Martin Prado , Miami Marlins : The Marlins are 21-20 and hanging around the NL East race — they’re 4 1/2 games back of first place and two games back of a Wild Card spot — so they could very well hang on to Prado (128 OPS+) and try to win. The Fish have historically been aggressive moving their impending free agents though, and Prado will hit the open market this winter. They’ve been looking for pitching since the offseason, so they could flip Prado for an arm (or arms), then slide Derek Dietrich over to third base once Dee Gordon returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, conveniently right before the trade deadline.
Just to be clear, I’m only speculating Freese and Prado could be fits for the Indians. As far as we know, they haven’t shown interest in those two players, and heck, there’s no indication the Pirates and Marlins want to move them right now either. They just stand as possible trade candidates given their club’s situation. Ether way, the Indians have an obvious spot to upgrade at third base. Upgrading behind the plate won’t be as easy.
The Indians have been to the postseason only once since 2007 — they lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2013 Wild Card Game — so it stands to reason they’ll have some urgency to go and get help at the deadline in an effort to win now. This is their window, while Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Brantley, Kipnis, Lindor, Carlos Santana , and Cody Allen are in their primes.