Yahoo Daily Fantasy Hockey: Friday-Saturday Picks – Yahoo Canada Sports (blog)
By Jason Chen
Is this it? The Lightning and Blues will face critical situations if they lose Game 4, putting them on the ropes trailing 3-1 in the series.
After a number of upsets in the first round and a thrilling second round, the games in the conference finals have been tilted heavily in favor of the Penguins and Sharks. Speed and balanced scoring lines have been the key to success for both teams, and strong goaltending certainly has been a big help as well.
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But it’s not over until the fat lady sings, and if the Blues and Lightning can even up the series at 2-2, it should breathe new life into them, making both series a best of three.
GOALIE
Matt Murray, PIT at TB ($36) – The Penguins offense is flying high, and outside of Victor Hedman, no one seems able to limit the shots a clearly frustrated Andrei Vasilevskiy ($33) is facing. That alone should tilt the scales in the favor of Murray, who will be looking to notch his third straight win, a feat he’s accomplished in each of the previous rounds.
Goalie to Avoid:
Brian Elliott, STL at SJ ($35) – A Blues loss in Game 3 meant that Elliott lost consecutive playoff games for the first time this spring. While he’s shown to be a mentally strong and resilient goalie, bouncing back with wins after each of his previous losses, don’t forget the Blues can always go to Jake Allen, who replaced Elliott in the third period. The Blues are having trouble containing the Sharks’ speed, and whoever starts in Game 4 in San Jose will face an uphill challenge.
CENTER
Joe Pavelski, SJ vs. STL ($30) – He registered two assists in Game 3 to give him at least one point in each of the three opening games of the series. He’s stepped up in a big way, and the Sharks’ top line seems unstoppable at the moment. Whether the Blues start Elliott or Allen in Game 4 won’t make much of a difference, and the changes Ken Hitchcock made to his defensive pairings didn’t do much to change the outcome of Game 3. Logan Couture ($30) is an equally good option, but logs fewer minutes. Jori Lehtera ($13) is an excellent value play if Hitchcock plays him on Vladimir Tarasenko‘s line again.
Center to Avoid:
Tyler Johnson, TB vs. PIT ($27) – Among centers $25 and higher, Johnson should be the one to avoid, especially with Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture and Sidney Crosby ($29) ahead of him. After Johnson, there’s a steep drop in salary, and Joe Thornton ($21) or Robby Fabbri ($20) could be better value plays. Johnson has just one goal in three games against Pittsburgh and played just 12, 18 and 15 minutes in each of those games, far less than what he is capable. He’s been ailing the entire playoffs and the Lightning’s chances to advance get smaller with each passing day Ben Bishop is on the shelf.
WING
Jonathan Drouin, TB vs. PIT ($20) – He’s one of the few Lightning forwards who has looked dangerous all series, and all eyes will be on him to carry the team. The speedy winger is getting more ice time than ever, but his usage is still dependent on situations since he doesn’t kill penalties and still gets less even strength ice time than five other Lightning forwards.
Tomas Hertl, SJ vs. STL ($18) – He scored two goals in a convincing Game 3 win, but in truth has played well for much of the playoffs and is only reaping the benefits now. He has four points in his last five games and played more than 17 minutes in his last two games. Coach Peter DeBoer trusts him, and with the Sharks’ top two lines performing swimmingly, there won’t be any reason to pull him off Pavelski’s line.
Wings to Avoid:
Patric Hornqvist, PIT at TB ($23) – How serious his hand injury is still to be determined. Although he has six goals in 14 games in the playoffs, he’s scored those six goals in just four games. Take away his hat trick in Game 1 against the Rangers and all of the sudden his numbers don’t make him look like a productive player. He had just 22 goals on the season and doesn’t have the best hands in the league, and if he continues to squabble with Sidney Crosby, perhaps Mike Sullivan will have no choice but to separate the two. A gritty winger with already mediocre hands suffering from a hand injury? No thanks.
Alexander Steen, STL at SJ ($19) – Steen is an excellent player and played more than 20 minutes for the third straight game, showing no ill effects from a leg-on-leg collision, but what the Blues need now is scoring, not defense. He has scored just once in his last six games and just three shots in three games against the Sharks. Hitchcock may be a matchup genius, but makes some head-scratching decisions sometimes.
DEFENSE
Kris Letang, PIT at TB ($27) – The Pens must surely be able to smell blood. Another win would put the Lightning on the ropes with their No. 1 goalie out of action, and Letang is one of the league’s most dangerous offensive defenseman. He simply has a way to come through when the team needs him most, and with Olli Maatta struggling, he’s shouldered much of the weight, playing no fewer than 27 minutes every night, something he’s done since Game 1 against Washington. Letang’s got a killer instinct that other defensemen don’t have.
Brent Burns, SJ vs. STL ($34) – He was held without a point in Game 3, but continued to dominate the offensive zone as a rover. Although Burns is the most expensive defenseman on the slate, he’s often well worth the price. He averages 10.8 fantasy points per game, higher than any other defenseman. Letang is second at 9.5 fantasy points per game.
Defensemen to Avoid:
Anton Stralman, TB vs. PIT ($21) – He scored a goal in his first game back since late March, but also was the one to blame for at least a couple of the Penguins’ goals, having been caught flat-footed and out of position. Kudos to Stralman for even being able to make it back so soon and playing significant minutes right way, but it’s hard for any player to jump straight into the playoffs. The speed of the game is already overwhelming, and the Lightning are facing a Penguins offense that can fly.
Alex Pietrangelo, STL at SJ ($20) – Like Steen, Pietrangelo is a reliable even strength player, but don’t expect him to come through in the clutch on offense. He notched just one assist in the series against Dallas and has been held without a point through the first three games of the series against San Jose. Colton Parayko ($18) and Kevin Shattenkirk ($23) are far better options among Blues defensemen.
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