Yahoo Daily Fantasy Hockey: Tuesday-Wednesday picks – Yahoo Canada Sports (blog)
By Neil Parker
Tuesday’s contests are comprised of Game 2 between San Jose and St. Louis on Tuesday night, and Game 3 between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
While there is clearly plenty of offensive upside for both the Sharks and Blues, the Western Conference bout could be lower scoring than Game 3 between the Penguins and Lightning.
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Also with the back-and-forth nature of these close Conference Final matchups, San Jose evening the series Tuesday seems likely.
Here are your picks, pans and values for Tuesday.
GOALIE
Martin Jones, SJ at STL ($32): In games following a loss during the playoffs, Jones is 2-1 with a .935 save percentage. And with the expectation San Jose evens the series, Jones is a solid value given his likely contest-low salary among likely starting goalies. It is worth noting that despite losing Game 1, the Sharks drove the play with 14 more shot attempts and seven more high-danger scoring chances, according to War-on-Ice.com.
Player to avoid:
Matt Murray, PIT at TB ($34): At this stage of the postseason, there aren’t any goalies to recommend as prime fade candidates. All four starters and their four backups are solid netminders. So with that in mind, Murray’s .889 save percent over his past four starts is underwhelming, while the Lightning scored 2.85 goals per home game during the regular season and have a 3.33 mark during the playoffs.
CENTER
Joe Thornton, SJ at STL ($22): With eight points through his past seven games, Thornton has continued to be one of the best offensive players in the league. Remember, dating back to the regular season, he has 77 points, a plus-24 rating and 30 power-play points through his past 66 games. Thornton’s floor is lower than some players because of his low shot volume, but he rarely misses the scoresheet, so target his high ceiling Tuesday.
Player to avoid:
Nick Bonino, PIT at TB ($21): After a scorching hot finish to the regular season and strong start to the playoffs (24 points through a 20-game stretch), Bonino has a single goal and assist through his past five games and just eight shots on net. There is upside here, but it is already priced in, and Bonino has hit double-digit fantasy points just once through his past six showings.
WING
Nikita Kucherov, TB vs. PIT ($29): Through six home games during the playoffs, Kucherov has five goals, two assists and 21 shots on net with a plus-10 rating. He has also averaged 20:08 of ice time per night with 4:25 of the power-play variety. Kucherov scored 40 points including 18 goals through 38 home games during the regular season, too.
Tomas Hertl, SJ at STL ($17): The numbers don’t jump off the page, but Hertl hasn’t returned a negative fantasy total once during the playoffs and sits with a respectable three goals, three helpers and 32 shots on net with a plus-6 rating through 13 games. While the salary isn’t a screaming value, it does present cap relief with reliability.
Player to avoid:
Vladimir Tarasenko, STL vs. SJ ($28): Fading an elite scorer has backfire potential, but Tarasenko has missed the scoresheet in five of his past nine games and registered just eight shots through his last four outings. And while his upside is second to none, Tarasenko certainly has been a touch more risky than some similarly-priced skaters.
DEFENSE
Justin Schultz, PIT at TB ($12): You’ll have to ensure he’s actually suiting up, but Schultz registered five shot attempts and three scoring chances during Game 2 on Monday, according to War-on-Ice.com. Sure, it only resulted in 2.0 fantasy points, but the offensive upside is there and Schultz passed the eye test. Assuming he is utilized effectively and primarily matched up against the weakest opponents, Schultz has limited risk at minimum price.
Player to avoid:
Brent Burns, SJ at STL ($34): Another risky pan, but continuing with the expectation of a low-scoring Game 2 on Tuesday, Burns’ cap hit is too high to saddle. He has missed double-digit fantasy points in half of his past six games, which is a must-hit mark to approach value at 17 percent of the salary cap. Spending up isn’t always spending wisely, especially with such a small player pool.
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