The Miami Heat? Gone till November.
This should be a “stop me if you’ve heard this before”-scenario for the Miami Heat. A long dive into the playoffs, followed an offseason filled with intrigue and the potential to sign one of the game’s top five players to a free agent contract. So why does this version feel so different this time around?
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The Heat’s season ended in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Sunday, a respectable showing that wouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone during October’s training camp, one that certainly doesn’t act as an upset in mid-May. The team was working without injured center Hassan Whiteside, and badly struggled to stay in front of Toronto’s All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. The team’s move to go incredibly small with rookie Justise Winslow at center, a once-unthinkable move for Heat president Pat Riley, helped extend the team’s season in Game 6, but could not sustain the squad’s chances in the deciding game.
The half-full approach, following a regular season that saw the team earn 48 wins, would be to point out that 2015-16 was always going to be an experiment anyway. A holdover, with Whiteside playing his first serious ball as a starter from the word “go,” working with noted vets like Goran Dragic and Luol Deng alongside the team’s core: Chris Bosh, hopefully healthy, and Dwyane Wade.
Sadly, Bosh could not overcome the serious blood clots that have now ended his last two seasons prematurely, around the league’s All-Star break. Wade stayed healthy and, somehow, Luol Deng made it to the finish line, but both were dragging by the time spring hit. And Dragic, in a less-serious situation to everyone but the point guard, can’t stop hitting things.
Though he was acquired last February, Dragic really was the team’s prize of the 2015 offseason, as Miami re-signed him to a five-year, $90 million dollar deal that will pay him through his 34th birthday. Dragic played well in his first year with Miami, but the thought of paying an aging and subpar Dragic over $19.2 million in 2019-20 (with the Heat already out of a pair of first-round picks in 2018 and 2021, sent to Phoenix for Dragic) is a bit much even with the growing salary cap.
The question of whether or not his ball-dominant game (and not personalities, mind you, as the two get along) can co-exist next to Dwyane Wade’s game remains to be unanswered, even after 7 1/2 months of play.
The question of whether or not Dwyane Wade will return this summer is still unanswered. The idea of Wade, the Miami Heat star from the start who has only considered leaving the team as a free agent once (and even then it was only briefly) seems ridiculous, but a whole lot can go wrong when expectations of trading favors go unfulfilled.
Wade signed for less than maximum money in his last three contracts with the Heat in a successful attempt to surround himself with stars, but let’s be honest – the deals he signed in 2010, 2014 and 2015 were hardly Tim Duncan or Dirk Nowitzki-level sacrifices. Wade played for over $20 million this year and he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and it’s very likely that he’s looking for a maxed-out payoff in return for the millions he’s already given up.
The issue here is that, even after yet another All-Star season, Wade might not be a max player anymore.
D-Wade played over 70 games for the first time since 2010-11 and averaged 19 points alongside a combined 8.7 rebounds/assists. One could point to his limited minutes (30 a night) and the presence of Dragic as limiting Wade’s box score effectiveness, but Wade’s efficiency did not increase in ways you usually see when a role is lessened, and he turned 34 midseason. He still exudes greatness and we wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if he drops 48 in a game just days after his 45th birthday, but his Player Efficiency Rating expectedly declined for the fourth year in a row in 2015-16.
If Wade re-signs with Miami at the max, becoming just the fifth player under contract for 2016-17 at that point in the offseason, his salary will get in the way of the team’s hopes at adding yet another needed star to the mix. Even before he signs, his max-sized cap hold of $29 million will leave the Heat hamstrung as they attempt to fill the roster with big names. Between now and July 1, the Heat have to figure something out. Any delay could cripple Wade and/or the Heat’s future.
From there, Whiteside becomes the Heat’s other priority. As with the Wade/Dragic pairing, an entire season plus (nearly) two playoff rounds left the “is this guy really a max player?”-question unanswered. League-wide most would insist that Whiteside is worth as much money as legally possible following a season that saw him lead the league in blocks (3.7 a night) and block percentage while contributing 14.2 points and 11.8 boards.
Ask those same people if they’d want Hassan Whiteside on their team, making the max? It’s a whole different story, and a lot of hemming and hawing. Thus, the unanswered question.
It isn’t quite the scenario that we saw with Gilbert Arenas-types (who had to sign under an incumbent team’s non-existent cap space after sparking a free agent turn without Bird Rights) in the early part of the century, but Miami will be hamstrung in its attempts to keep the center. The Heat can’t offer their player a fifth year, due to Whiteside lacking full Bird Rights, which means this franchise’s offer will have the same length and cash amount as offers that will no doubt pour in from several other teams, newly flush with cap space.
With so many great players likely sticking with their teams, this might make Whiteside the most available maxed-out player on the market this July, ushering in an uneasy lack of permanence and control that usually doesn’t happen with Pat Riley-run franchises.
Matters like these pale in comparison to the situation regarding Bosh, who is owed over $23 million next season and $52 million in the two campaigns after that. As noted above, it is uncertain as to whether or not the future Hall of Famer will ever play in the NBA again.
(And, for those cynical enough to wonder if the Heat’s hesitancy to field him is same sort of salary-clearing maneuver bent on clearing room for Kevin Durant this summer, let me be another of several scribes that reminded on Monday that the Heat would not be able to clear his salary from the cap this summer due to any medical scenario.)
From here, the questions become a little easier.
Luol Deng certainly didn’t play poorly down the stretch of the playoffs, he was easily the team’s best player in its first few wins over Charlotte, but he looked understandably weary as usual, and thanks to the Chicago Bulls his 31-years of age are a rather old 31. He’ll have his suitors as a free agent due to his skills, professionalism and versatility, so how much should the Heat compete to keep him around? Reserve guard Tyler Johnson, pressed into service during the nationally-televised playoffs, will also find offers as a free agent.
Josh McRoberts may never be the same following 2014’s meniscus tear, but he had his moments this season. Though the $11.8 million he’s owed over the next two seasons is reasonable with the rising cap, the Heat would lose him in a second if it meant more salary cap space for this summer. Beno Udrih has already been bought out by Miami, in a move that saved the franchise from paying the luxury tax. Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson are playing on relatively tiny rookie contracts.
Udonis Haslem is likely to retire, and polar opposite Gerald Green will probably end up moving on to his tenth professional team (counting stints in Russia) this summer.
The banished Amar’e Stoudemire? You tell me:
Joe Johnson chose Miami over a possible championship run in Cleveland in order to receive more minutes and shot attempts, thinking of his next and possibly final contract in a career that has seen him make over $174 million. If that’s his line of thinking in February, this probably means he’ll head to the team offering the most money during the offseason – remember, this is the same guy that left Steve Nash’s Suns in the first year of Seven Seconds or Less to sign with an Atlanta Hawk team that won 17 games the season before.
As it is every time Pat Riley tries to rebuild around boffo stars, most of the legwork will have to be done before you’re technically allowed to start talking with potential signees – in the weeks and months that lead up until July. Key cogs Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside, working with career and monetary motivations that absolutely define the word “disparate,” will have to make their expectations known right away, along with Riley.
What might follow is a summer full of hurt feelings. Or, a brand new incoming All-Star and the wonder of how, exactly, Pat Riley pulled it off again.
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Kelly Dwyer is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops
