Western Conference Final Preview: St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks
Either the St. Louis Blues or the San Jose Sharks are going to be playing for the Stanley Cup in about two weeks.
Let that sink in for a moment.
How’d They Get Here?
The St. Louis Blues (49-24-9, 107 points) outlasted both the Chicago Blackhawks and the Dallas Stars in seven games, losing in Game 6 in both series and then coming back with impressive efforts in the final game.
The San Jose Sharks (46-30-6, 98 points) also vanquished a hated rival in the first round, topping the Los Angeles Kings in five games. The Nashville Predators pushed them to seven games; but luckily for the Sharks, Shea Weber decided to have the worst game of his career at the most inopportune time.
Their Last Playoff Meeting
The Blues rolled the Sharks in the first round in 2012, winning 4-games-to-1. The Sharks won Game 1 in double-overtime, but it was all downhill after that for San Jose against Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott.
Schedule
Sunday, May 15 8 p.m. San Jose at St. Louis NBCSN, CBC, TVAS
Tuesday, May 17 8 p.m. San Jose at St. Louis NBCSN, CBC, TVAS
Thursday, May 19 9 p.m. St. Louis at San Jose NBCSN, CBC, TVAS
Saturday, May 21 7:15 p.m. St. Louis at San Jose NBC, CBC, TVAS
*Monday, May 23 8 p.m. San Jose at St. Louis NBCSN, CBC, TVAS
*Wednesday, May 25 9 p.m. St. Louis at San Jose NBCSN, CBC, TVAS
*Friday, May 27 8 p.m. San Jose at St. Louis NBCSN, CBC, TVAS
Offense
Both teams have shown impressive balance offensively, which is a welcome change from previous playoff disasters.
The Blues are powered by the STL Line of Jaden Schwartz (3 goals, 8 assists), Jori Lehtera (1 goal, 6 assists) and Vladimir Tarasenko (7 goals, 6 assists). When they’ve played together, they’ve driven possession in power-vs.-power matchups and dominated for stretches at even strength. Tarasenko has scored six of his seven goals at even strength, for example.
The real revelation for the Blues offensively has been rookie Robby Fabbri, with three goals and 10 assists in his first playoff run. Paul Stastny (3 goals, 6 assists) and Troy Brouwer (5 goals, 5 assists) roll with him.
In the past, David Backes (6 goals and 6 assists) and Alex Steen (4 goals and 4 assists) would have been called out for a lack of offense. But they’re not only contributing, but playing well overall. Expect them on a line with fellow Blues mainstay Patrik Berglund.
Scottie Upshall, Kyle Brodziak and Steve Ott fill out the lineup.
The Blues also get some help from the back end, with Kevin Shattenkirk scoring 10 points and Alex Pietrangelo adding seven points.
The Sharks’ second-leading scorer is also found on the blueline: Brent Burns, who has 15 points in 12 games. Something electrifying happens every time he’s touched the puck this postseason, and the Blues are going to have to do something to counteract that offensive push. (They’ve also gotten eights assists from Marc-Edouard Vlasic.)
The Sharks’ top line is the Joe(s) Show. Joe Pavelski has an NHL playoff best nine goals, and has been an emotional catalyst for the team as captain. The laidback former captain, Joe Thornton, has three goals and eight assists, calmly directing Pavelski and Tomas Hertl (2 goals, 3 assists).
Logan Couture is the Sharks’ leading scorer in the playoffs with 17 points, including seven goals. Patrick Marleau (4 goals, 5 assists) has moved around a bit in the lineup, but was last seen with Couture and Joonas Donskoi, who has three goals and four assists and a name that sounds like it was invented for STAR WARS fanfic.
Joel Ward, playoff warrior, anchors a third line with Melker Karlsson and Chris Tierney. Nick Spalding, Tommy Wingels and the ageless Dainius Zubrus help will out the lineup.
Advantage: Sharks. The Blues might have a little more depth, but the Sharks have posted the NHL’s best goals-per-game average in the playoffs (3.42) against strong defensive competition.
Defense
The Blues waited for years to get a goaltending performance like the one Brian Elliott’s given them. (In some cases, waiting on Elliott himself; in others, waiting on goalies they hopes would eclipse him.) Elliott’s posted a 2.29 save percentage overall and a .941 save percentage at even strength. In both series, he played arguably his worst game in Game 6, only to rebound in Game 7.
Martin Jones has been overall pretty good in his first postseason as a starter, with a .923 even strength save percentage. He had a couple of clunkers in the Predators’ series after outplaying Jonathan Quick in Round 1.
The Sharks (2.33 GAA) have been a tick better than the Blues (2.43) defensively this postseason, but also didn’t have to face Patrick Kane and Jamie Benn in the previous two rounds. They’ve also been the slightly better possession team at 49.65 score-adjusted Corsi (via Corsica).
Vlasic and Justin Braun are the Sharks’ top pairing, and have driven possession and eaten minutes. Paul Martin has been solid in covering for Brent Burns when he goes on offensive adventures, but Burns has also excelled in his own zone. Brenden Dillon and Roman Polak round out the group.
The Blues have plenty of familiar names leading the blue line: Jay Bouwmeester and Alex Pietrangelo, along with Shattenkirk. But among the difference between this Blues team and previous ones is the play of the rookies: Joel Edmundson, who plays with Shattenkirk, has the highest score-adjusted Corsi of any St. Louis defenseman (54.65); and Colton Parayko, who has built on his stellar regular season and is logging over 20 minutes per game. Carl Gunnarsson fills out the top six, with Robert Bortuzzo in reserve.
Advantage: Blues. Deeper defense, and Elliott trumps Jones.
Special Teams
The Sharks have the best power play remaining in the postseason, clicking at 30.9 percent in including 45 percent on home ice. They’ve had 42 power-play chances; the Blues have had 40, and have a not-too-shabby 27.5 percent conversion rate. Couture has eight power-play points; Tarasenko had six.
The Sharks have the slightly better penalty kill: 82.3 percent to the Blues’ 79.5 percent. St. Louis rolls out Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester as their top killers, long with Backes, Steen and Kyle Brodziak. Martin, Burns, Vlasic, Braun, Tierney, Karlsson, Spaling and Couture get rolled out for the Sharks.
Advantage: Sharks.
Coaching
What a journey for both of these guys.
Peter DeBoer has had his typically great first season with a team. His temperament and work with both the veteran players and younger ones has been a master-class in how the right guy behind the bench can soothe lingering animosity, provide motivation and put the past in the past.
Ken Hitchcock nearly didn’t return after last season, with the Blues flirting hard with Mike Babcock. But he came back on a one-year deal, and has coached the hell out of these playoffs: Making some controversial moves (see Tarasenko, Ice Time) but also showing calm in the face of adversity (see Elliott, Brian, goaltending decisions).
Advantage: Blues.
Five Key Questions
1. Can the Sharks win without home ice?
San Jose was a different team on home ice than in Nashville last round – including their awesome power play. They’re obviously going to have to take one game in St. Louis to win it. The good news: The Blues are 3-4 on home ice.
2. Can the Blues keep going deep?
Seven of the top 25 players in total ice time this postseason are on the Blues. They’ve played two more games than the Sharks. If this series goes the seven games that their previous have, can the Blues go the distance again?
3. Can the Blues shut down more offensive dynamos?
Kane and Benn both just had one goal in their series against the Blues. What kind of number can they do against the Joes in his one?
4. Is Martin Jones Cup ready?
Jones has shown a few shaky moments in the postseason, including a rough Game 6 against the Predators. If for whatever reason a change needs to be made for the Sharks, James Reimer is more than capable as the backup.
5. How nasty is this going to get?
The Blues love throwing their body around, including Backes and Brouwer up front. The Sharks just came off a physical little series against the Predators. The hate quotient for this one is potentially quite high.
Prediction
Sharks in 6. Due respect to the Blues, but the Sharks are going to win any series in which their stars are leading the way (and they have) and they get solid goaltending (and they will). They take one of two in St. Louis to open the series, and then eventually close it out in the Shark Tank.
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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.
