Top-five picks in NBA carry no certainty – The Boston Globe
File/2007/Jae C. Hong/AP
The Trail Blazers had a choice at No. 1 in 2007: Greg Oden or Kevin Durant? They took Oden, and the rest is history.
So, Celtics fans will be tuned into the draft lottery again, huh? They will be buoyed by the potential of Boston landing the No. 1 overall pick and perhaps selecting the next great Celtic, the cornerstone who will have his number eventually hanging from the rafters at TD Garden.
The Celtics have a 95.96 percent chance of landing one of the top five picks in the draft, thanks to owning the Nets’ first-round choice. But there is no guarantee that even if the Celtics selected first they would get a superstar. An examination of the top-five picks over the last 10 drafts shows an array of NBA success at each slot.
For example, let’s take the top picks from 2006-13 — allowing the last two No. 1 picks, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, more time to develop. Of those eight picks, only five have been an All-Star. Two (Anthony Bennett and Greg Oden) are currently out of the NBA, and another (Andrea Bargnani) has been discarded by two teams.
Of the eight No. 2 picks from 2006-13, just two have played in an All-Star Game — LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Durant. The others include such flameouts as Michael Beasley, Hasheem Thabeet, and Derrick Williams.
Only two No. 3 picks in that time span have reached All-Star status — Al Horford and James Harden. Seven of the eight remain in the NBA, and that’s including Joel Embiid, who has yet to play an NBA game.
The Celtics have the highest percentage to land the fourth pick (22.56). And the NBA success rate at that slot from 2006-13 is very poor: only one of the eight (Russell Westbrook) has developed into an All-Star. The others include Tyrus Thomas (out of the NBA), Wesley Johnson, and Tyreke Evans.
The fifth pick has fared better. Two of the eight have been All-Stars — Kevin Love and DeMarcus Cousins. But that list also includes Shelden Williams, Thomas Robinson, and Alex Len.
We have ranked all top-five picks from the last 10 drafts. If you’re looking for such players as Stephen Curry, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, or Klay Thompson, you won’t find them here. They all lasted past the fifth pick.
The draft has proven over the last 10 years that every pick comes with risk. Of the bottom 10 on this list, three are No. 1 overall picks.
Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge has a big responsibility in tabbing the right player for a franchise that has been burned in the lottery.
The Celtics’ only top-five pick in the last 10 years was Jeff Green (No. 5 in 2007), and he was shipped to Seattle on draft night for Ray Allen.
Boston had the sixth pick in 2014 and took Marcus Smart, who has an opportunity to be a standout player. But the Celtics also passed on Zach LaVine, Rodney Hood, and Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson, who was taken 46th overall, is the second-leading scorer from that draft class.
The Celtics have eight picks in the June 23 draft, and most certainly will trade some or use some to draft overseas players as investments. But instead of being consumed with their likely top-five pick, the focus should also be on finding a gem with their other two first-round selections, Nos. 16 (from the Mavericks) and 23.
Some players on this list had their careers marred by injury. Others lacked the work ethic to cut it in the NBA, or we’re just overhyped.
Many have fulfilled their potential and enjoyed successful careers. And only a handful are considered future Hall of Famers.
While this list shouldn’t discourage Celtic fans from dreaming big with the Nets’ pick, it should put in perspective just how difficult it is to draft a cornerstone player.
1. Kevin Durant — The Trail Blazers stewed over whether to draft Durant or Greg Oden at No. 1 in 2007 after Durant overwhelmed the Portland brass during his workout. They stuck with Oden, who was considered a potential superstar center. Durant has turned into one of the more graceful scorers for his size in league history and is in line to reach the Hall of Fame.
2. Blake Griffin — Taken first overall in 2009, Griffin missed his rookie year with a knee injury before becoming a five-time All-Star and Slam Dunk contest champion. He has become a cornerstone with the Clippers, a powerful, improving player. Health, however, remains an issue.
3. Russell Westbrook — The last lottery pick of the Seattle SuperSonics, general manager Sam Presti stunned the league by taking the athletic Westbrook fourth overall. Westbrook, a developing player at UCLA, has turned into one of the league’s fiercest competitors and unstoppable forces.
4. Kyrie Irving — Taken first overall by the Cavaliers in 2011, Irving has the highest scoring average in his draft class, and is a three-time All-Star, a Rookie of the Year, and an All-Star Game MVP. Health has been an issue but he has become one of the more dynamic players in the NBA, and he’s only 24.
5. Anthony Davis — The No. 1 overall pick in 2012, Davis is approaching superstardom but needs to stay healthy. The Pelicans were considered a rising team before this season. Hopefully offseason surgeries can help keep Davis on the court.
6. James Harden — Harden was taken third overall by the Thunder in 2009, one pick after Hasheem Thabeet, and has turned into a top-10 player and one of the league’s prolific scorers. The Rockets star may take criticism for his selfishness and lack of defense, but he’s pretty much what you’d like to have from a No. 3 pick.
7. DeMarcus Cousins — Cousins is ranked so high because of his numbers and development into one of the better centers in the game. But he has been criticized for his attitude and lack of leadership. The Kings took Cousins fifth overall in 2010 — behind Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson — and he has turned into a top-20 player.
8. LaMarcus Aldridge — The workmanlike big man has developed into one of the league’s top midrange shooters for his size. Aldridge helped turn Portland into a Western Conference contender before signing with the Spurs last offseason. His career has ascended beyond expectations.
9. Derrick Rose — A former MVP and one of the more dynamic players in the NBA before injuries derailed his career, Rose was taken first overall in 2008 and led the Bulls back to prominence. Should Rose be lower on this list because his body betrayed him? Interesting question.
10. Kevin Love — A burly one-and-done out of UCLA, Love was taken fifth overall in 2008. He is the only player in his draft class to average a double-double for his career. While he has been maligned during his stint in Cleveland, he is still a three-time All-Star. Minnesota got the best of the draft-night deal with Memphis in which Love was swapped for O.J. Mayo.
11. John Wall — The top pick in 2010, Wall is a three-time All-Star and perhaps the fastest player (along with Russell Westbrook) in the NBA with the ball in his hands. Wall has significantly improved his shooting and ability to finish at the rim. He can’t lead the Wizards to prosperity by himself, but he’s certainly trying.
12. Karl-Anthony Towns — A polished player for his age, Towns is a surefire All-Star in the coming years. He is a cinch to win Rookie of the Year and blends a brilliant post game with a sparkling perimeter arsenal. Minnesota took Towns first last June ahead of Jahlil Okafor, and it looks like a great choice.
13. Al Horford — Horford is a workmanlike center and perennial All-Star. Taken third in that loaded 2007 draft, Horford exceeded expectations with the Hawks, and now he’s an unrestricted free agent.
14. Andrew Wiggins — The Canadian product came to the NBA with lots of hype after he was taken first overall in 2014. And he has quietly begun to live up to his potential in Minnesota. He averaged nearly 21 points per game in his second season, shooting 46 percent from the field, and he just turned 21.
15. Bradley Beal — Only injuries have prevented Beal from becoming an All-Star shooting guard. He and John Wall make up one of the better backcourts in the NBA. Beal was a one-and-done (Florida) taken third overall in 2012. Perhaps he wasn’t physically ready to withstand the NBA rigors, but he has the game.
16. Mike Conley — He was the other guy from Ohio State in the 2007 draft, taken fourth overall by Memphis. Conley has turned into one of the league’s better floor leaders. He doesn’t have the flair of Chris Paul or Stephen Curry, but he’s simply solid.
17. Victor Oladipo — He is explosive and plays with swagger. Perhaps with the Magic hiring a new coach Oladipo will blossom into a premium shooting guard. He has quietly averaged 16 points in his first three seasons but has yet to lift Orlando to the postseason.
18. Tristan Thompson — Thompson is one-dimensional but that dimension is rare: offensive rebounding. The one-and-done from Texas has turned into one of the league’s more relentless rebounders, and last fall as a restricted free agent he got an $82 million contract from the Cavaliers.
19. Derrick Favors — Favors may never make an All-Star Game because of his meat-and-potatoes game, but he has turned into a top-notch defensive center and solid perimeter shooter. He, too, was taken ahead of DeMarcus Cousins and Paul George but he’s arguably the fourth-best player from the draft class of 2010.
20. Jabari Parker — The second overall pick in 2014, Parker was on his way to a standout rookie season before blowing out his left knee. He showed signs of being a cornerstone for the Bucks during the second half of his second season. He has a lot of potential.
21. Evan Turner — Turner has been reminded for the past six years where he was drafted — second overall in 2010, after John Wall — and will likely never be a superstar. But Turner has turned into a versatile player who will be valued in free agency this summer.
22. Kristaps Porzingis — A year ago, Porzingis was just another European unknown who was supposed to take years to develop. After a sparkling rookie season, he is now the next great hope for the Knicks. All Porzingis needs is experience and some muscle, and he’ll be a star.
23. Jeff Green — Celtics fans know Green, who was drafted fifth by Boston in 2007 and then traded to Seattle for Ray Allen. Green has bounced around the league, a hired gun off the bench for his last few teams, never a star.
24. Enes Kanter — Taken third in 2011, Kanter has cemented a role in Oklahoma City after an uneven experience in Utah. He may not be a great defender, but his rebounding and scoring around the basket have turned him into a major asset for OKC.
25. Ricky Rubio — Rubio was supposed to be an NBA sensation but is simply a solid distributor. He needs to improve his shooting, but he has improved steadily over his career. He was taken two picks ahead of Stephen Curry in 2009, so that will always work against him.
26. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — Injuries have stopped Kidd-Gilchrist from becoming one of the league’s better defenders at small forward. He has worked on his jump shot and turned himself into a difference-maker on defense. He needs to stay healthy.
27. Otto Porter — The Wizards have been waiting for the former Georgetown standout to flourish at small forward. He averaged nearly 12 points per game last season, his first as a full-time starter, and he still has potential.
28. O.J. Mayo — Taken ahead of Russell Westbrook and traded for Kevin Love, Mayo hasn’t found a true position and is an offense-only player. He averaged a career-low 7.8 points this season.
29. Tyreke Evans – It seems laughable now, but Evans won Rookie of the Year over Stephen Curry in the 2009-10 season. He was projected to be a top point guard early in his career, but he’s not a true point and can’t stay healthy. Now he’s just a guy.
30. Jonas Valanciunas — He spent a year overseas after getting drafted fifth overall in 2011, and has turned into a solid big man for the Raptors. He may never be an All-Star, but he is a staple in the middle for an improving franchise.
31. Jahlil Okafor — Okafor fell to the third pick in 2015 and then experienced a bizarre rookie season with some off-the-court issues. Okafor is a gifted player, but can he play in a fast-paced offense being mainly a post player?
32. Dante Exum — The guard was on his way to becoming a rising standout before tearing his anterior cruciate ligament playing for the Australian national team last summer and missing the season. If healthy, Exum can make a difference for Utah next season.
33. Dion Waiters — A one-and-done at Syracuse, Waiters is so one-dimensional it’s hard not to consider him a disappointment. Taken by the Cavaliers in 2012 ahead of Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond, and Harrison Barnes, Waiters was soon dumped by Cleveland and is a high-volume shooter off Oklahoma City’s bench.
34. Aaron Gordon — Gordon has shown he can dunk — boy, can he — but he’ll have to show more game to become a true star. He nearly doubled his scoring average in his second season and has improved his perimeter shooting. And he’s only 20.
35. D’Angelo Russell — Russell could soar up this list but a lot of things have to happen first. It was a rocky rookie season for the Lakers guard, to say the least. He showed immense skills but lacked maturity and poise. His issues aren’t about talent.
36. Alex Len — Len is an improving big man and perhaps a cornerstone in Phoenix. But the Suns didn’t sign aging Tyson Chandler to a four-year deal because they thought Len was a potential star. Len has made strides, but he has to stay healthy.
37. Derrick Williams — The second overall pick in 2011 — taken ahead of Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Brandon Knight — Williams lacked a true position. His work ethic was also questioned, and he has become a reserve known more for dunking.
38. Thomas Robinson — Most NBA players don’t have Robinson’s heart or passion, but he lacked an offensive game when taken fifth overall in 2012 by Sacramento, one pick ahead of Lillard. Robinson has played with five teams in four seasons and has shot below 30 percent when more than 2 feet from the basket.
39. Wesley Johnson — Taken ahead of DeMarcus Cousins and Paul George in 2010, Johnson was a bust for the Timberwolves but has turned himself into a capable defender and bench player. That’s good for a late first-rounder, but for a fourth overall pick, it’s a disappointment.
40. Cody Zeller — The 2013 draft has turned into a strange one, filled with busts in the first 20 picks. Zeller will have to make major strides to become a consistently productive power forward.
41. Mario Hezonja — He wasn’t all that bad during his rookie season, but is he a cornerstone for the Magic? There was a reason why Scott Skiles resigned after one season: He didn’t favor the team’s younger players. Hezonja has a lot to prove as a No. 5 pick, but he has skills.
42. Michael Beasley — He has the skills of a perennial All-Star but the work ethic and basketball intelligence of an AAU rookie. Beasley is perhaps the most frustrating player in the NBA to watch because he has done so little with his talent. He will try to stay in the league as a free agent this summer.
43. Andrea Bargnani — The No. 1 pick in the star-crossed 2006 draft, Bargnani never developed into a cornerstone for Toronto and soon became a one-dimensional player with an attitude problem and poor work ethic. He’s a 7-foot power forward who can stretch the floor but plays no defense.
44. Tyrus Thomas — His draft stock soared after he showed his freakish athleticism in the 2006 NCAA Tournament, and as the No. 4 overall pick he was traded by the Trail Blazers to the Bulls on draft night for No. 2 pick Aldridge, making Thomas’s selection look even worse. Thomas had a poor work ethic and never developed his game, soon realizing athleticism alone won’t keep you in the NBA.
45. Joel Embiid — He has yet to play a game in two years. He was considered perhaps the most talented player in the 2014 draft before his foot issues worsened, and it’s a mystery as to whether he’ll ever play a full season, let alone have a long career.
46. Adam Morrison — He was one of Michael Jordan’s first picks in Charlotte and the Gonzaga product was actually decent until he blew out his knee before his second season. He was never the same, and he didn’t deal well with expectations of being the next Larry Bird. He was out of the league in four years.
47. Shelden Williams — This is the pick — not so much passing on Chris Paul the year before — that may have really derailed the Hawks. Williams was a great college player but lacked real skills for a power forward. Soon he became just a decent defender and a lunch-pail player, and he was out of the league after just six seasons, with only two career 20-point games.
48. Greg Oden — He is the modern-day Sam Bowie, a gifted center taken by Portland ahead of an all-time great. We never got to see the best of Oden because health did not allow it. Oden’s body betrayed him.
49. Anthony Bennett — It seemed that Bennett just wanted to be a lottery pick after his one season at UNLV, and suddenly he was taken first by the Cavaliers in 2013 and the pressure was on. He was overweight and lacked skills and a true position. He has been dumped by three teams in three years.
50. Hasheem Thabeet — There may not be a bigger bust in NBA Draft history considering the hype that followed the 7-foot-3-inch center coming out of UConn. Thabeet played in 224 NBA games with four teams and averaged 2.2 points per game. He was taken one spot ahead of James Harden.
Gary Washburn can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @GwashburnGlobe.