Strike Zone: Examining The Disappointments
Let’s talk disappointments this week. I’m going to address the struggles of 20 players I’m getting lots of questions about.
Chris Archer (SP Rays): Just when it looked like Archer had it turned around, he gave up four runs and walked four in five innings versus the Mariners last time out. He’s pitched into the seventh inning just once in eight starts, and his ERA stands at 4.57. On the plus side, he’s struck out a whopping 54 in 43 1/3 innings and his velocity is very close to where it was at this point of last year (it went on to rise some in June). Still, he’s giving up more contact than before on both his fastball and slider. I’m not as worried about Archer’s performance as much as I am the injury risk; his lack of efficiency on the mound resulted in the second highest pitch total among starters last year and the only reason he’s not back there this year is because he just hasn’t been good enough to stick around deeper into games. I think Archer will take a step forward if he stays healthy, but since I don’t think he’ll stay healthy, I don’t recommend him.
Prince Fielder (DH Rangers): It was a red flag when Fielder was diagnosed with a severe case of sleep apnea in the spring, but who saw a total collapse coming? It’s not like he just suddenly came down with sleep apnea; he dealt with it while hitting .305/.378/.463 for the Rangers last year. He’s at .187/.247/.281 right now, and there’s little in the numbers that leads to optimism. He’s swinging and missing about 40 percent more frequently than last year. Not coincidently, his strikeout rate is also up about 40 percent. Last year, his exit velocity ranked at the 87th percentile among players with at least 100 samples. This year, he’s at the 38th percentile (exit velocities from baseballsavant.mlb.com). I imagine that Fielder will eventually get to the point at which he’s hitting enough singles and doubles to contribute to the Rangers’ cause, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’s going to become particularly valuable for fantasy purposes again anytime soon. I don’t suggest flat-out dropping him in mixed leagues, but he’s not a strong buy-low candidate, either.
Carlos Gomez (OF Astros): One of the game’s best players in 2013 and 2014 with the Brewers, Gomez has come in at .217/.263/.326 in 74 games since being traded to the Astros last summer. His power has completely evaporated this year, with his exit velocity currently tracking at the eighth percentile. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed, too; he’s fanned in 35.4 percent of his plate appearances this year, the third-highest rate in the majors. As with Fielder, there’s just nothing here to be optimistic about. He’s playing like he’s injured, though he won’t admit to anything. He’s getting very close to being droppable in mixed leagues, and I wouldn’t suggest trading for him.
Sonny Gray (SP Athletics): Gray has made a habit of beating his peripherals since arriving in the majors in 2013. This year, he’s coming up way short, with a BABIP about 60 points higher than his career mark. Blame some of that on an A’s defense that has been well below average so far. Gray is getting his usual number of strikeouts and groundballs. He’s allowed more homers than expected, and it’s hard to blame the defense for that. Still, as strong as his groundball rate is, there’s little reason to think it will continue. His velocity is fine. His slider and curveball both look good to me. I’m optimistic.
Randal Grichuk (OF Cardinals): Grichuk just needs to play. His strikeout rate is down 25 percent from last year and his walk rate is up nearly 60 percent. His exit velocity is at the 93rd percentile of major league hitters. He’s hitting the ball on the ground more than usual, which isn’t ideal, but not to any extreme amount. If his playing-time situation clears up, there’s no reason he can’t hit .260 with 25 homers the rest of the way. If anything, he’s a better bet from a performance standpoint now than he was on Opening Day. I don’t blame Mike Matheny for rotating his outfielders in and out when Jeremy Hazelbaker has been so stellar, but Grichuk should win out as the season progresses and begin producing like a top-30 fantasy outfielder.
Matt Harvey (RHP Mets): While his velocity is down nearly two mph from last year, Harveydoesn’t seem broken to me. Some of his struggles are bad luck; Harvey’s .373 BABIP against is the fourth-highest mark in the league and that’s just not sustainable. He’s striking out three batters for each one he walks, and while that doesn’t match last year’s 5:1 ratio, it’s still well above average. He’s also allowed just four homers in 45 2/3 innings. Harvey’s mechanics are a little out of whack, which explains why his velocity has gone up and down (he’s averaged 95 mph with his fastball in two of his last four starts, putting him near where he was last year, but he’s averaged just 93 mph in the other two). He’ll get it sorted out, and he’s a buy for me.
Jason Heyward (OF Cubs): At least from a performance standpoint, very little is going wrong for the Cubs this year. Heyward, though, is hitting .236 with no homers through 123 at-bats. He has a solid .347 OBP, but his slugging percentage is .276. Still, at this time, I don’t think there are any major concerns. His strikeout rate is higher than usual, but his contact rate is fine. His exit velocity is down only a tad from last year. Admittedly, some were hoping he’d show more power this year while playing in a neutral home run park for left-handed hitters for the first time (both Turner Field and Busch Stadium are tough on left-handed power), but that’s probably not going to happen. Still, he seems like a reasonable bet to be a top-30 outfielder in the end, partly because he has so many good hitters around him to help inflate his run and RBI totals.
Dallas Keuchel (SP Astros): Throwing 246 innings between the regular season and October last year seems to have taken a toll on Keuchel’s stuff, as his velocity is down about 1.5 mph from last year. He’s adjusted by throwing more cutters, and while that pitch is working for him, his slider simply isn’t. Things aren’t hopeless here, though. Keuchel still has his exceptional groundball rate, and while his strikeout rate isn’t what it was last year, it’s better than it was during his breakthrough season in 2014 (when he had a 2.93 ERA in 200 innings). He currently has a 4.02 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP to go along with his 5.58 ERA. Keuchel should get it turned around to an extent. Even if it’s not getting thrown as hard as it used to, his sinker still moves and generates groundballs. He’s had big troubles with walks so far, which isn’t like him at all. It’d take a velocity spike to return him to Cy Young form, but even if that doesn’t happen, I think he’ll sport an ERA in the mid-3.00s the rest of the way.
Russell Martin (C Blue Jays): Ideally, Martin would have spent the last couple of weeks on the disabled list trying to get his neck injury to calm down. Still, he wants to play and the Blue Jays don’t want to live without his glove. While Martin’s defensive metrics are down this year, he still deserves a significant share of credit for the recent success of the Jays’ rotation. Of course, he’s not hitting at all; Martin has one extra-base hit in 97 at-bats. He’s striking out 36 percent of the time, which is more than double his career rate. If he gets healthy, he’ll probably go back to hitting .220-.240 with decent power, though not as much as last year. Right now, he’s not worth owning in one-catcher mixed leagues.
Shelby Miller (SP Diamondbacks): Miller isn’t someone I was high on going into the year, but I wasn’t expecting a dramatic decline. That’s what it has been, though; he’s sporting a 22/23 K/BB ratio to go along with his 6.94 ERA in 35 innings. His swinging-strike rate, never a strong point, is now one of the lowest in the majors, and he’s one of five starting pitchers, along with Bud Norris, Mike Leake, Jerad Eickhoff and Wily Peralta, with an exit-velocity against of at least 92 mph. I wouldn’t completely rule out a turnaround, but I’m not waiting around for one, either.
Michael Pineda (SP Yankees): Pineda might not be cut out for Yankee Stadium. Last year, he gave up 16 homers in 89 2/3 innings there, compared to five in 71 innings on the road. This season, he’s allowed nine homers in 27 2/3 innings at home and none in 11 innings (two starts) on the road. Pineda has an excellent slider, leading to his strong strikeout numbers, but he doesn’t miss enough bats with his 91-95 mph fastball and pitching in such a friendly environment for left-handed power hitters means he pays for his mistakes more frequently that he might otherwise. I still think he’ll have some mixed-league value this year; if he posts a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way, he’ll possess a strong WHIP and strikeout rate to go along with it. But his ceiling in New York isn’t what I thought it was.
David Price (SP Red Sox): There was never any reason for panic here. Price’s velocity is down from last year, but not far off from where he was during the early part of 2014. Plus, his strikeout rate has been incredible all season long; with 65 strikeouts, 13 walks and four homers allowed in 48 innings, he has a 2.52 FIP to go along with his crazy 6.00 ERA. Price has made his worst pitches at bad times, often with two or three guys on base. Whether he’s really fixed some mysterious mechanical troubles or not, he still projects as a top-10 fantasy starter the rest of the way.
Yasiel Puig (OF Dodgers): Puig got off to a fantastic start, collecting a homer and two triples in his first three games of the season. He was hitting .405/.500/.622 after 10 games. Since then, he’s come in at .175/.184/.299. He walked five times in his first seven games and one time in 29 games since. Puig is still hitting the ball fairly hard, with an exit velocity that ranks at the 78th percentile. He’s striking out right at his career rate, with the caveat that he’s swinging and missing more than usual. It’s the fastball that he’s having real problems with, something that’s unusual for him. Still, there isn’t much to suggest he won’t bounce back. I don’t think Puig is about to blossom into the 30-homer guy he once seemed destined to become, but he can do a little bit of everything while hitting in the heart of a pretty good lineup. He’s still a top-20 fantasy outfielder in my book.
Albert Pujols (1B Angels): Things don’t seem as dire for Pujols as they did a few days ago; he homered Thursday and Saturday and pushed his batting average back over the Mendoza Line. Since the beginning of last year, Pujols has had little to offer except homers; he’s batting .236 in that span and collected a total of 24 doubles (and no triples) in 740 at-bats. His BABIP has been tumbling for years, as he’s hardly making an effort to do anything besides hit homers. There’s also the problem of the Angels lineup behind him. Last year, Pujols was driven in just 45 times in 157 games. This year, he’s been driven in seven times in 36 games. Pujols is strictly a two-category player now, and even his RBI total isn’t likely to be stellar. His stock remains on the decline.
Anthony Rendon (3B Nationals): Buy, buy, buy. I worry about Rendon’s durability, as he’s had difficulty staying in lineups since back to his college days, but he’s a far better player than his current .226/.313/.315 line suggests. His exit velocity is at the 87th percentile of big-leaguers, and he’s striking out at a bit less than his career rate while continuing to post an excellent contact rate. There’s every reason to believe he’ll hit .280-.300 with decent power the rest of the way, and he’s also back stealing bases this year (four in five tries) after injuries shut him down there in 2015.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS Blue Jays): Tulowitzki owners aren’t panicking like they were a week ago, not with three homers in a four-game span from Wednesday to Saturday. I think it’s clear that Tulo is on the decline. He’s struggling to catch up to good fastballs, and he’s making less contact than ever before. That’s not to say he’s done, though. Like so many others whose bats have slowed, he can trade batting average for homers by guessing more frequently and pulling the ball, and since he’s hitting behind some nice OBPs in the Toronto lineup, he could still drive in plenty of runs. I don’t think he’s a great buy-low option, since he’s a zero in steals and he’s probably not going to hit for average, but he’s a top-10 shortstop.
Justin Upton (OF Tigers):Upton has always been streaky, but this is ridiculous. If anything, he’s lucky to be hitting .208/.243/.306, considering that his .333 BABIP is better than his career mark. Do you know how impossible a .333 BABIP and a .549 OPS is? 487 players in baseball history have qualified for the batting title with a BABIP in between .330 and .335. The median OPS in that group is .828. The very worst is .649.Uptonis currently striking out eight times for each time he walks (59/7). He’s never been worse than 3:1 previously. He’s hitting the ball pretty hard when he makes contact, but he’s just not making enough contact for it to matter. Eventually, that has to change. He’s facing a lot of pitchers he’s seen very little of after making the jump from the NL to the AL, and it’s taking a toll, just as it’s done with most of the hitters who made the move this year. I don’t think he’ll bounce all of the way back until next year, but he probably will get his 20-22 homers over the remainder of the season, making him a decent fantasy outfielder.
Adam Wainwright (SP Cardinals): After eight starts, Wainwright is still looking for his first stellar outing. He actually has four quality starts, but all of them were of the six-inning, three-run variety (one was 6 1/3 innings). His velocity is right where it was when he won 20 games with a 2.38 ERA in 2014, but location has been an issue for him, which is pretty unusual, and his curveball just hasn’t been a weapon, which is even more unusual. He says it’s mechanics, and I think he’s probably right. Wainwright made adjustments last fall as he attempted to return from a torn Achilles’ tendon, and he’s had difficulty getting back to how he was throwing before the injury. It should come with time, though. I’m not as high on him as I was a month ago, but I still think he’ll turn be a quality mixed-league starter the rest of the way, just probably not a top-20 SP.
Matt Wieters (C Orioles): Adam Jones hit his way out of the column over the last week, making room for a teammate. Wieters simply hasn’t looked right in his second year back from Tommy John surgery. He’s missed so much time the last couple of years, and his elbow still isn’t back to normal. Wieters has been overly aggressive at the plate, and his contact rate is lousy. His exit velocity is at the 27th percentile. I thought Wieters would go back to normal and hit around 20 homers with 70 RBI this year. That doesn’t seem likely to happen now, though there’s still a good chance that the more plays, the better he’ll get. As little depth as there is at the position, he remains a viable option in one-catcher mixed leagues.
Ryan Zimmerman (1B Nationals): Teams will keep pitching around Bryce Harper, since Zimmerman hasn’t made them pay so far. He will, though. Zimmerman is hitting the ball much harder than his .226 average and .363 slugging percentage suggest. In fact, he has the fifth-best exit velocity among everyday players, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton, David Ortiz, Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo. Zimmerman is hitting the ball on the ground too often, but even so, he’s just not far away from busting out. I won’t guarantee that he’ll stay healthy; Zimmerman hasn’t played in 140 games since 2013, so he’s probably going to miss some time at some point. However, he should be picked up in any mixed leagues in which he was dropped.
