NBA Draft: Does the lottery need to be reformed? – LA Daily News
CHICAGO >> Ping-pong balls will soon bounce around a machine. How those balls pop out could determine a franchise’s success or failure through multiple seasons.
When the NBA hosts the draft lottery on Tuesday in New York, officials with the Lakers and 13 other teams will wait anxiously in a private room before hearing four-number combinations to determine the draft order.
The Lakers have a 19.9 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 55.8 percent likelihood of staying in the top three. Otherwise, the Lakers owe their pick to Philadelphia as part of the Steve Nash trade. That scenario could hinder their quest to clean the residue stemmed from finishing the past two years with their worst record in franchise history.
Whether the Lakers feel elation or sorrow nearly 48 hours from now, various NBA front offices sounded mixed on two issues. Does the current NBA draft lottery system hand out consolation prizes for poor records? Or does the system simply help rebuilding teams to ensure league parity? Does an NBA team’s draft fortune rely on a ping-pong ball bouncing its way? Or have those franchises set their respective teams up for failure to maximize their odds at a coveted draft pick?
“We have to do something to stop the incentive for teams to tank,” said one NBA owner, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue. “You shouldn’t be rewarded for stripping your team down.”
The sentiment does not seem as varied as the 1,001 possible four-ball combinations. Yet, a consensus has not emerged.
The NBA reported a majority of teams voted in favor of lottery reform during a Board of Governors meeting in the fall of 2014. Nothing passed, though, since the league needed a so-called “super majority” of at least 23 out of 30 NBA teams. According to league sources, some concern centered on whether any tweaks would give large market teams an advantage over small ones.
Kiki Vandeweghe, the NBA’s senior vice president of basketball operations added, “I don’t think I see anything imminent” on revisiting the issue. Instead, the NBA expressed hope other forces would erase any need for lottery reform, including the league’s nine-year $24-billion national television deal and increased salary cap from about $70 to $90 million.
“There are going to be enormous unintentional consequences from that,” NBA commissioner Adam Silver said. “Talking to GMs and others around the league, we all decided to take a step back and say, ‘Of course the lottery is one way to build the team. But free agency is another way to build a team. Trades are a third way,’ Let’s look at the system holistically after this summer to see how it’s operating and then take a fresh look at the lottery again.”
Gaming the system?
Some took a fresh look at the NBA lottery system in recent seasons because of how the Philadelphia 76ers constructed their roster.
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The Sixers could have as many as 16 draft picks in the next five years, while fielding a team that went a combined 47-195 in the previous three seasons. Last month, Sam Hinkie resigned as the Sixers’ general manager and president of basketball operations amid mounting criticism on his approach.
“Everybody has rigged the system. It wasn’t new what Philadelphia was doing,” said one Eastern Conference general manager. “It’s just that Sam was so brazen about how he went about it. He acted like he reinvented the wheel.”
Some conceded that executives have constructed poor rosters to minimize the team’s chances to succeed. One general manager admitted his team sat star players late in the season in recent years, citing injuries, once a playoff seed no longer became reachable. After all, the NBA’s worst team currently has a 25 percent chance of landing top pick. The 14th-worst team only has a .3 percent chance.
Yet, others pointed out how the Boston Celtics collected 15 draft picks through the next four years through trades while still staying competitive. Silver credited Golden State for quickly becoming a championship contender through smart draft picks, including second-round prospect Draymond Green turning into an All-Star. Others believe Hinkie’s resignation will assuage any concerns about teams manipulating the draft lottery system.
“There’s so many different factors that go into building a team. It’s important you design a system where good management is rewarded,” Vandeweghe said. “You work hard and are smart about it and you’re rewarded for that. That’s what we want and that’s what we’re seeing.”
Various proposals
With Vandeweghe arguing “the lottery is not supposed to incentivize losing,” both the NBA and other teams have proposed various tweaks to ensure that ideal.
Vandeweghe confirmed the NBA pitched various proposals, including a weighted system that would even out the odds among the 14 worst teams in landing a top pick.
“It would incentivize teams to compete harder at the end of the year when they’re out of the playoffs,” Phoenix Suns general manager Ryan McDonough said. “Teams would say it’s not as much of a difference anymore to win two more games. They’re then playing hard, playing their normal rotation and having guys play through injuries.”
Other front office executives worried that proposal would make it harder for struggling teams to accelerate their rebuilding. Instead, some favored what Knicks director of player personnel Mark Warkentien once pitched. According to league sources, Warkentien proposed a playoff bracket among struggling teams in hopes to nab the final playoff seed, an idea that could eliminate any temptation to punt on the season before it officially ends.
Others embraced the “wheel” concept that originated from Mike Zarren, the Boston Celtics assistant general manager and team counsel. In a system that would either last five or 10 years, the wheel would assign picks to teams beforehand. For example, one team could start out with a draft pick between one and six before having a pick slotted 25 through 30 in year two. In the 10-year plan, the team would start out with a pick between one and three before having a pick 28-30 in year two. This order could ensure both predictability and balance in the draft order selection.
“You still allow for teams to get good draft picks with some frequency. But at the same time, you divorce the picks from those teams’ records,” Zarren said. “Nobody could ever accuse a team or no fans would ever want their team to be worse so they would get a better draft pick.”
Concerns persisted with that proposal, too. Would future college prospects manipulate their NBA eligibility so they could align with a team a certain year that will have a high draft pick?
Similar questions emerged amid a proposal Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban admitted has “zero chance” of becoming a reality.
“All draft eligibles are free agents,” Cuban wrote in an e-mail. “They can sign with whatever team they want. However, the amount of dollars slotted for that team would be allocated proportionately by record. Worst record gets the most dollars to spend on a rookie. Best record the least.”
Other NBA executives believed that could heighten issues between big and small-market teams. Some added that change would give prospects and agents more leverage in ensuring where they get drafted. Such a move would also likely have to be agreed upon in a collective bargaining agreement.
The next step
Through all these varying proposals, clarity seems lacking on what could happen next. A consensus seems unclear on how much concern teams have about the lottery system itself.
And yet …
“We encourage ideas, especially from our teams,” Vandeweghe said. “Most of the really good ideas with rule changes on the court or any place else originate with our teams.”
For now, though, various teams will watch nervously once again to see if the ping-pong balls bounce their way.
Quote box: “We have to do something to stop the incentive for teams to tank,” said one NBA owner
