Weekly Rotation: The five most disappointing offseason additions
Every year, fans are cautioned not to overreact to bold Hot Stove transactions. The 2015 Padres, 2014 Yankees, 2013 Blue Jays and 2012 Marlins were all proclaimed as the “winners” of their respective offseasons, yet none ended up qualifying for the postseason.
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Still, the early goings of 2016 have proven to be exceptionally disappointing for most of the big names who changed addresses over the winter. Upon reviewing Yahoo’s top 20 free agents, a dozen of them are experiencing extremely slow starts. Though the level-headed among us preach patience and small sample sizes in this scenario, it’s not abnormal to feel panic setting in if your team’s shiny new toy appears to have arrived defective.
The Weekly Rotation is here to provide a voice of reason for those fans already self-aware of a creeping sense of anxiety. Using PointAfter visualizations, I’ll rank the five most disappointing additions of the offseason thus far and assess if it’s viable to panic about each player and their respective team’s playoff chances.
Notes: All statistics are accurate as of games played on May 10.
5. Jason Heyward, Cubs
2016 Stats: .211/.312/.257 slash line, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 23 K in 28 games
Salary: $21.6 million
Jason Heyward famously went yard in his first major league at-bat on Opening Day in 2010, instantly endearing himself to Atlanta Braves fans. We’re 126 plate appearances into his career in the Windy City, and Cubs fans are still waiting for a reason to similarly embrace the former phenom guaranteed $184 million by Chicago.
Heyward currently has a lower batting average and OPS than teammate David Ross, a 39-year-old catcher who was basically signed to serve as Jon Lester’s personal catcher. His slugging percentage (.257) is far lower than his on-base percentage (.312), since he’s mustered just five doubles as his only extra-base hits thus far. His performance has frankly been sort of embarrassing for someone blessed with his talent and stature (6’5”, 240 pounds), let alone for a guy regarded as the crown jewel of the winter’s free agent class.
All that said, Heyward is still drawing a ton of walks while providing value in the field and on the basepaths. He’s gone through these sort of power outages before, including seven droughts of at least 25 games and a career-high 45-game homerless streak with St. Louis last year. This current slump is made more understandable by his recent wrist ailment. The 26-year-old could launch a home run beyond the ivy into those new Wrigley bleachers at any moment, at which point Cubbies fans will breathe a collective sigh of relief. For now, they’ll continue to enjoy the best team in baseball and try to ignore Heyward’s initial struggles.
Panic level: Snooze button
4. David Price, Red Sox
2016 Stats: 4-1, 6.75 ERA, 12 BB, 53 K in 41.1 IP
Salary: $30 million
If this ranking was done purely by looking at statistics like ERA or WAR, David Price would surely be a couple spots higher. The highest-paid pitcher in MLB history has given up more earned runs (31) than anyone in the American League entering Tuesday.
However, Price is also pacing the Junior Circuit in strikeouts (53) with a career-high rate of 11.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. Though the results have yet to show up in the scorebook, the Red Sox coaching staff (with some help from Dustin Pedroia) has seemingly pinpointed an inconsistency in the lefty’s leg kick that could be the root of his issues.
[Elsewhere: How many games will the Chicago Cubs win this season?]
Price has also simply been a victim of awful luck. Opposing hitters hold a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .383 against him, the second-highest mark in the AL. For context, league average BABIP is right around .300 and Price has never recorded one higher than .306. His defense will eventually get better at converting live balls into outs.
It also helps matters that Price hasn’t cost Boston many games yet. The AL’s highest-scoring offense has backed up the former Cy Young winner and lifted the Red Sox to first place in the AL East. Accordingly, Beantown can’t be too disappointed with Price’s tenure yet. A rough 2 mph decrease in velocity this season might not portend well for Price’s long-term outlook, but this is still a guy with excellent command and above-average stuff.
Panic level: Forgot to go to ATM for cash-only food truck, but your friend has you covered
3. Scott Kazmir, Dodgers
2016 Stats: 2-3, 5.54 ERA, 12 BB, 36 K, 9 HR allowed in 37.1 IP
Salary: $12.7 million
Looking at the Dodgers rotation during spring training, Scott Kazmir would have been the obvious choice as the No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw. But a homer-riddled beginning to 2016 has seen Kazmir post the worst ERA in Los Angeles’ rotation by nearly a full run.
Kazmir has served up nine home runs thus far, the second-most in the NL. That includes two given up against the Rockies in the thin Denver air, and a three-tater day courtesy of the Giants, who benefited from wall scrapers by Angel Pagan and Brandon Belt. As a result, his HR/9 rate is easily the highest it’s ever been, aside from a disastrous 1 2/3 inning cameo that served as his lone appearance in 2011.
Kazmir’s slump has hindered L.A.’s ability to pull away in an uninspired NL West despite excellent showings from Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda. The cash-laden Dodgers will almost certainly look to upgrade their rotation this summer. Depending on the quality of that inevitable acquisition and the progression of Kazmir, the 32-year-old could feasibly find himself pushed out of Los Angeles’ playoff rotation come October.
[Elsewhere: This Twins ballboy deserves a Gold Glove for this catch]
Panic level: Found a hair in your food at a four-star restaurant
2. Justin Upton, Tigers
2016 Stats: .228/.267/.325 slash line, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 51 K in 32 games
Salary: $22.1 million
Diamondbacks, Braves and Padres fans know how streaky Justin Upton is at the plate. It’s one of his defining characteristics. Tigers faithful have learned that the hard way in 2016, as Upton has exhibited the worst plate discipline of his career in 2016.
Upton’s 51 strikeouts are the most in the Majors. He has seven three-strikeout games under his belt. It took until May 3 for him to start a game and not strike out, and he hasn’t done it again since. A seven-game hitting streak between April 28-May 5 has given way to an 0-for-17 slump.
If there’s been a bright side, it’s Upton’s defense. He leads all AL leftfielders in range factor per game, a skill put on display while robbing poor Chris Coghlan of a homer recently.
The Tigers didn’t sign Upton for his defense, though. If he doesn’t find his groove soon, the Tigers could fall too far behind the upstart White Sox in the AL Central for a second-half surge from their $132 million man to matter. If Detroit does indeed miss the playoffs, it’d mark the third straight year a team employing Upton fancied themselves as contenders yet fell short of the postseason.
Panic level: Is this seat getting warmer?
1. Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks
2016 Stats: 1-3, 7.36 ERA, 21 BB, 20 K in 29.1 IP
Salary: $4.4 million
Shelby Miller was the league’s “biggest loser” last year, as he took 17 L’s to go along with six wins during his only season in Atlanta. The dubious title was entirely unfair, as Miller received the worst run support of any starter while recording a 3.02 ERA and earning his first All-Star bid.
The Diamondbacks saw enough in him to trade the No. 1 overall pick of the 2015 MLB Draft, Dansby Swanson, to acquire him. That move was roundly criticized, even with most of the naysayers assuming Miller could replicate his production as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter for Arizona.
[Elsewhere: A player in Japan won a year’s supply of beer for hitting this home run]
Well, Miller has been arguably the worst starter in the Majors. This year, he’s wholly deserved all three losses he’s been tagged with, and should probably have a couple more to his name. The 25-year-old holds a 7.36 ERA through seven starts, and that’s the lowest it’s been all season.
Miller has failed to get out of the third inning in two outings, and has yet to see the seventh frame. Entering Tuesday, he led the National League in walks (21), and has handed out more free passes than strikeouts (20) through 29.1 innings.
The D-backs mortgaged their future to contend immediately, but have stumbled out to a 16-18 start. Miraculously, they’re only one game out of first place in the dreadful National League West, which has been far worse than anyone expected. But the point stands that the team looks nothing like the contender its front office expected them to be.
At least Zack Greinke (40/9 K/BB in 43.2 IP), Arizona’s other major offseason acquisition, has promising peripherals that indicate a return to form is in the cards. Miller, meanwhile, has looked utterly lost while Swanson has torn up the minor leagues, making the Diamondbacks’ decision makers look more inept than even their worst critics previously suggested.
Panic level: CODE RED
Close calls: Mike Leake (Cardinals), Ken Giles (Astros), Drew Storen (Blue Jays), Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Erick Aybar (Braves), Chase Anderson (Brewers), Jon Niese (Pirates)
This story was published by PointAfter, a partner of Yahoo Sports.
Will Laws is a writer for PointAfter, a sports data aggregation and visualization website that’s part of the Graphiq network. PointAfter is a platform for shot charts, scatter plots and other data visualizations about NBA players, NFL teams and dozens of other topics.
