Roundtable: How many games will the Cubs win this season?

The Chicago Cubs are embarrassingly good. Anyone who follows the game knew Chicago would put a winning team on the field this season. In fact, if you were to travel back in time to March to tell people the Cubs had the best record in baseball on May 11, they wouldn’t be shocked. This was supposed to happen.

That said, the Cubs have been way more impressive than anyone expected. Through 31 games, they are 25-6, and have outscored their opponents by 103 runs. For context, the New York Mets are second in baseball in run differential. They’ve outscored opponents by 45 runs.

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The Cubs have done this despite losing Kyle Schwarber just a few games into the season. Schwarber, as you recall, was supposed to be one of the team’s better hitters this season.

We, along with everyone else, were high on the Cubs coming into the year. But, somehow, our initial predictions were way too low. Only one of our experts, Tim Brown, picked the Cubs to win 100 games back in April. The latest projections over at 538.com have the Cubs now winning 107 games this season. Even Tim’s prediction was low.

So, we’re giving our writers a mulligan. Now that you’ve seen the Cubs play, and seen how dominant they are, how many games do you think they’ll win during the regular season?

101 WINS
I was the low man on the Cubs during our initial season predictions, pegging them for just 92 wins this year. In retrospect, that seems foolish. Still, I have a hard time handing them an extremely high win total this year. Injuries happen, and while I think Jake Arrieta is great, I can’t expect him (or Jon Lester) to carry their pristine ERAs all season.

Those numbers will rise, some players will get dinged and the Cubs will win 101 games. They won’t break any regular season records, but that’s not the goal anyway. Breaking the curse and winning during the postseason will be more than enough for the franchise. No need to push guys hard in September knowing what’s at stake a month later. (Chris Cwik)

101 WINS
The Cubs seem like an unstoppable force of nature so far this season, and it’s hard to deny that they’re on their way to something great. But their season is just 31 games old. They have another 131 to play, which is a whole lot of games. Even the best, most talented teams can hit a rough patch, and the Cubs aren’t immune to that. It will happen to them at some point. But I don’t think it’ll be enough to force them under 100 wins. So based on that, my completely unscientific prediction is 101 wins. (Liz Roscher)

108 WINS
Only injuries can derail the Cubs from doing something special. Given their remarkable depth though, even a rash of ailments may only leave a small dent. They’ve yet to be impacted by the loss of Kyle Schwarber or nagging injuries to Jason Heyward and Miguel Montero. They can’t even find regular playing time for Jorge Soler or Javier Baez. They have so much depth bursting from every position that they appear immune to a prolonged slump.

[Elsewhere: This Twins ballboy might win a Gold Glove after this excellent catch]

Perhaps a key injury in the rotation would be damaging. But their position player depth could also be turned into acquiring an elite replacement. The Cubs are an irresistible force right now, and there are no immovable objects in sight. (Mark Townsend)

108 WINS
It has been 108 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. Since I’m all about symmetry, that seems like the right number here.

This is a team that won 97 games last season and improved in every way in the offseason by adding pitching, hitting and depth. So 100 or more victories seems completely within the realm of possibility. In fact, based on how the club has performed to this point, a run at the major league record of 116 wins in a season also seems doable. But there are still a lot of young players here, so I’m going to dial it back a bit.

The Cubs are 25-6 through 31 games and the biggest offseason acquisition, outfielder Jason Heyward, didn’t have a particularly strong first month. This team still has room to tighten things up defensively having committed 16 errors in those 30 games and it also has been without its starting catcher recently. So it seems like there is room for improvement, even though the Cubs have been very good already. (Kyle Ringo)

[Elsewhere: Bartolo Colon’s home run mashed up with “The Natural” is perfection]

110 WINS
We know these Cubs are good – they can hit, they can pitch and they’re deserving World Series favorites – but just how good are they? With the postseason still five months away, let’s concentrate on the regular season. With 25 wins through their first 31 games, it feels like a certainty they’ll win at least 100 games. The question is: how far over 100? How about 110?

That sounds about right and would give the Cubs the third-best regular season in 50 years behind the 2001 Seattle Mariners (116 wins) and 1998 New York Yankees (114 wins). The real history they’re looking to conquer is in October, but there will some history to chase down the stretch if they keep up this pace. (Israel Fehr)

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