The 16 biggest NFL story lines to watch in 2016 – USA TODAY
USA TODAY Sports’ Tom Pelissero looks ahead to next season. USA TODAY Sports
The NFL’s ever-predictable unpredictability is a major reason it continues to rule America’s sporting landscape. Peyton Manning gets benched in the midst of the worst season of his career yet winds up winning his long-sought second Super Bowl before retiring? C’mon. A North Dakota State quarterback is the second pick of the draft? Really? For the second straight year, the U.S. justice system is casting a pall over the league’s highest-profile player and the modern-day dynasty he forged? Stop.
There’s just no telling what might happen in a parity-driven, soap opera-fueled league. But here’s a guess at what could be the 16 most tantalizing subplots of 2016:
1. Can the Denver Broncos repeat?
History would suggest a rather emphatic no. The last team to successfully defend its Super Bowl crown was the 2004 New England Patriots. Denver’s bid to go back-to-back will be complicated by an additional hurdle: The Broncos are the first champions to enter the following offseason without their previous starting quarterback (or his backup) since the 2001 Baltimore Ravens. Like these Broncos, those Ravens sported a dominant defense but were blown out in the divisional round of the 2001 playoffs amid a horrible performance by Elvis Grbac, Trent Dilfer’s replacement. Mark Sanchez and/or Paxton Lynch face a Mile High mountain trying to replicate what retired Peyton Manning and departed Brock Osweiler pulled off in 2015, especially with the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders on the rise in the AFC West and capable of ending the Broncos’ five-year perch atop the division.
2. Dimmed star power
When was the last time the league had such a mass exodus of greatness? That question would be relevant had five-time MVP Manning been the only player to retire this offseason. But he could be joined in the Hall of Fame’s class of 2021 by Charles Woodson, Calvin Johnson, Jared Allen and, perhaps, Marshawn Lynch. Several other former Pro Bowlers also hung up their cleats, including Matt Hasselbeck — he, Manning and Woodson were the final remnants of the 1998 draft — D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jerod Mayo, Heath Miller, Justin Tuck and Jon Beason. Lots of room on stage for a new wave of stars.
3. Comeback trails
No teams are likely to benefit more from a few months off than the Dallas Cowboys and Ravens. Dallas lost QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant for a combined 19 games to injuries in 2015, more than enough to torpedo their NFC East title defense. Baltimore sent 20 players to injured reserve, including QB Joe Flacco, OLB Terrell Suggs and WR Steve Smith — the primary explanation for their failure to miss the playoffs for only the second time in the John Harbaugh/Flacco era. Armed with healed bodies and top-10 draft picks, both clubs should rebound.
Other stars looking to make an impact after suffering season-ending injuries in 2015 include Le’Veon Bell, Kelvin Benjamin, Jamaal Charles, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Graham, Justin Houston, Andrew Luck, Tyrann Mathieu and Jordy Nelson.
4. Who’s next to cash in?
Most of this year’s free agents were household names only in their own households. Nevertheless, Malik Jackson, Olivier Vernon, Kelechi Osemele, Janoris Jenkins and others were showered with outlandish spending. Assuming he doesn’t hit the age 37 wall, Drew Brees could have one more big pay day ahead as he enters the final season of a five-year, $100 million deal. But the bottom line to monitor is Andrew Luck’s. He’s due $16.2 million in 2016, the final year of his rookie contract. But the next pact he signs will probably make him the first player ever to earn $25 million annually and maybe the first to earn $150 million over the duration of a contract.
5. The AFC South may rise again
The worst division in the league of late — the AFC South has submitted one wild-card entry in the past seven seasons — might finally be undergoing a metamorphosis. The Jacksonville Jaguars, whose offense showed signs of a major breakthrough in 2015, added the top free agent (DT Malik Jackson) and perhaps the best defenders in the draft (CB Jalen Ramsey, LB Myles Jack). The Tennessee Titans maneuvered their way into obtaining five of the draft’s top 64 picks and also acquired RB DeMarco Murray. The Indianapolis Colts should bounce back assuming Luck stays upright. But the Houston Texans, who won the division in 2015, are the team to watch after luring QB Brock Osweiler and explosive RB Lamar Miller in free agency before adding speedy wideouts Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in the draft along with Nick Martin, the likely first-team center.
6. Deflategate
Patriots QB Tom Brady is again facing a four-game suspension for his alleged role in Deflategate after the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reinstated the ban a district court overturned last September. Brady needs a legal Hail Mary to stave off the suspension again, so that likely means another summer of questions he probably won’t answer while understudy Jimmy Garoppolo spends a second training camp preparing to start the first games of his pro career. But there will be a new character on stage after the Patriots drafted North Carolina State QB Jacoby Brissett, who’s more likely to eventually replace Garoppolo than Brady.
7. Los Angeles
The Rams’ Hollywood return marks the first time in 22 years an NFL team will call L.A. home. The question now is whether the San Diego Chargers or Raiders, who remain in limbo in their current cities, might join the Rams or move elsewhere. The Chargers continue to pursue a new stadium in San Diego but have the option to go to L.A. in 2017. The Raiders extended their lease in Oakland through the 2016 season. However owner Mark Davis is already flirting with Las Vegas and could also return to L.A. if the Chargers don’t.
8. New coaches
This season will begin with seven changes under the headset. Adam Gase (Miami Dolphins), Ben McAdoo (New York Giants), Doug Pederson (Philadelphia Eagles) and Dirk Koetter (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) are embarking on their maiden voyage as NFL head coaches. Hue Jackson (Cleveland Browns) and Chip Kelly (San Francisco 49ers) are each getting a second chance, while the Titans’ Mike Mularkey is getting his third shot. None of these teams has reached the playoffs in the last two years, and four have postseason droughts of at least seven seasons. Jackson could face the tallest order with a Cleveland franchise that has appeared in one playoff game (2002) since its 1999 rebirth and appears no closer with another overhauled front office overseeing yet another roster rebuild.
9. Fútbol
The NFL’s global footprint continues to grow, largely by design. The league’s International Series is expanding to four games with three contests set to be staged in London, including the first at Twickenham Stadium (Rams-Giants on Oct. 23), plus the first-regular season game in Mexico City since 2005. The talent pool has also expanded with Minnesota Vikings sixth-round WR Moritz Boehringer the first player ever drafted out of a European league.
10. The Josh Norman effect
The Carolina Panthers stunningly rescinded the franchise tag from their all-pro cornerback in April, paving the way to his five-year, $75 million deal with the Washington Redskins. Norman’s new team is hoping he can effectively check Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham while seriously upgrading the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense. The Panthers, who had a league-best 24 interceptions on their way to the NFC crown a year ago, are betting they won’t be much worse off, especially after taking three corners in the draft. The verdicts may be in by the time Washington hosts Carolina in Week 15.
11. Records in the air?
It’s been three years since we’ve seen a 5,000-yard passer or 50-touchdown outburst (both courtesy of Peyton Manning during his final MVP season). Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers certainly remain capable of statistical outliers that could rewrite the record book. But don’t sleep on the wideouts, either. Julio Jones’ 1,871 receiving yards in 2015 were the second most in one season, 93 shy of Calvin Johnson’s 2012 record. Antonio Brown’s 1,834 yards last year ranked fourth all-time. However he averaged 133.3 yards in the 12 games he played with Ben Roethlisberger, which projects to 2,132 over 16 games. The 136 catches Brown and Jones each posted in 2015 were seven shy of Marvin Harrison’s single-season mark set in 2002, so that, too, could be in jeopardy.
12. Playoff droughts
The Buffalo Bills haven’t reached the playoffs in the 21st century, absent since their infamous Music City Miracle ouster in the 1999 postseason. But their luck may change if Rex Ryan fixes an atypically poor defense and QB Tyrod Taylor maintains his level coming off a Pro Bowl campaign. The Bills are grouped in with eight other teams (Bengals, Lions, Browns, Raiders, Buccaneers, Titans, Rams and Redskins) who are at least a decade removed from their last playoff win. The guy under the most pressure to get off that list is Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis, the league’s most-tenured coach aside from Bill Belichick, but a man who’s 0-7 all-time in postseason, including defeats each of the last five years.
13. Instant gratification
Jared Goff (Rams) and Carson Wentz (Eagles), the first and second picks of the draft, respectively, will continue to garner headlines, but no quarterback has been named offensive rookie of the year since 2012. First-year players with a better shot at making a quick impact are Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, who could do something special behind perhaps the league’s best O-line, and Cleveland’s Corey Coleman and Minnesota’s Laquon Treadwell, who could each quickly emerge as a No. 1 wideout. Defensively, the Jags’ Ramsey and Jack, Chargers DE Joey Bosa, Raiders S Karl Joseph, Atlanta Falcons S Keanu Neal, Bills DE Shaq Lawson and New York Jets LB Darron Lee are all in position to make splashes.
14. Delayed gratification
Four first-round picks in 2015 failed to see the field. Jaguars DE Dante Fowler (3rd overall pick), Chicago Bears WR Kevin White (7th) and Ravens WR Breshad Perriman (26th) were waylaid by injuries. Fowler and White will be expected to make major contributions as sophomores, while Perriman should have every opportunity to join Baltimore’s passing attack. The Arizona Cardinals’ D.J. Humphries failed to earn playing time as a rookie but seems ready to take over the team’s vacant right tackle post.
15. QB carousel
It seems quarterbacks are replaced with the same regularity as coaches anymore yet are also afforded second chances at a similar rate. Robert Griffin III, Mark Sanchez and Colin Kaepernick, once regarded as franchise passers, are hoping to reboot their careers. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, Houston’s Brock Osweiler and Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater hope to prove they’re worthy of that franchise mantle, while Buffalo’s Taylor and Washington’s Kirk Cousins are doing the same with long-term extensions at stake. Chicago’s Jay Cutler and Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, never paragons of consistency, must try to not only cope but thrive despite diminished firepower around them. And who knows what will happen in the crowded QB rooms for the Jets and Eagles?
16. MVP?
Carolina’s Cam Newton earned 2015 MVP honors after accounting for 45 regular-season TDs and leading his team to Super Bowl 50. He became the eighth quarterback to win the award in the last nine seasons. However odds are a different QB will be anointed in 2016 given Peyton Manning (2003-04 and 2008-09) is the only repeat winner in nearly two decades. Two-time MVP Tom Brady’s candidacy could be determined by his availability. Aaron Rodgers has also won twice and could be headed for a big year with Jordy Nelson’s return. Others who seem to have the ingredients to make their first MVP charge include Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Russell Wilson. Coming off very strong sophomore seasons and surrounded by young talent, Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles and Oakland’s Derek Carr could emerge as dark horses.
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