NBA Fantasy Trends: Stats and Pod: The Realest MVP
Stephen Curry was named the first unanimous NBA MVP ever on Tuesday. The timing is great after Curry exploded in an overtime win at Portland on Monday. His 17 points in overtime were the most all time for any NBA game thanks to a 107.9 true shooting percentage and a 66.3 usage rate. He outscored the Raptors and Heat overtime (15 points) from Monday, too. During the regular season, there were 27 players logging playing time and failing to score 17 total points all season. If you somehow missed it, NBATV is airing the game all the time in the next few days.
Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James were terrific, but any NBA voter had to pick Curry. This Tuesday afternoon stats column has been a Curry love fest all year with his ridiculous 66.9 true shooting percentage and a 32.0 usage rate. That is by far the best efficiency ever among qualifiers with at least a 32.0 usage rate. The closest player to Steph with at least a 32.0 usage rate was Kevin Durant in 2013-14 with his 63.5 true shooting percentage. Steph is the real MVP.
One last thing on the Warriors, the “death lineup” of Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green dominated in potent fashion. They played five minutes together on Monday, posting a 85.4 net rating with a 186.3 offensive rating and a 116.65 pace. If that lineup played 48 minutes with that kind of efficiency and pace, they would score 217 points.
The first game of Monday night wasn’t quite as entertaining. Unless you’re really into some wacky lineups. If you are like I am, the Raptors vs. Heat game was interesting. Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) and Hassan Whiteside (knee) not playing opened up the floodgates for small-ball combos.
Starting with the losers, the Raptors weren’t very good down the stretch. They desperately missed Kyle Lowry in overtime on both ends as he watched Dwyane Wade destroy his teammates. Lowry fouled out with 1:58 left in the fourth and the Raptors up two, but after that the Raptors were smoked 15-6 the rest of the way. Overall, the Raptors had a -25.0 net rating in 21 minutes without Lowry on Monday. On top of that, the Raptors are -37.9 in net rating without Lowry for the 44 minutes in this series. Yeah, his shooting is broken, but the Raptors need him badly. Expect him to have more work headed his way on Wednesday.
If an All-Star player is on the bench for 19 minutes, you’d think it might hurt his team, right? Well, not with DeMar DeRozan. They Raptors posted a positive 7.5 net rating without him — that’s the highest on the team. He’s lost.
As mentioned above, the Raptors got wacky with their combos. Here’s where the players saw their minutes based on position (these numbers are rounded and some of them were based on who they guarded for positions):
The guard situation was fairly straight forward with Cory Joseph logging 16 minutes next to Kyle Lowry. Joseph looked like he was going to close next to Lowry anyway, so his minutes looked like they were going to be high. In fact, he played the final 27:06 minutes and no Raptor played more than him after halftime. For DFS, he’s definitely on the table.
Kyle Lowry is still a fine option in DFS. He almost hit value despite making 2-of-11 from the field. DeMar DeRozan got benched at times down the stretch, which was absolutely deserved. You can’t touch him in DFS right now unless it’s a tourney and you’ve hit the sauce too hard. We also only saw A Lowry-CoJo-DeRozan lineup for two minutes. There’s really nothing to it with small forward here either.
The Raptors went small so much. Even Terrence Ross got in the mix at the four. It had a lot to do with how he was playing well, so don’t expect him to get five minutes at the four again. He’s still a nice DFS option. DeMarre Carroll was always going to get run at the four and he’s another fine value on Wednesday.
If you played Patrick Patterson in DFS, you probably were quite displeased. He only had seven points, four rebounds and three turnovers in 41 minutes, including nine minutes at the five. As bad as that stat line was, the Raptors were a pathetic -59.0 in net rating during the 12 minutes without 2-Pat on Monday. He should play a lot again.
Bismack Biyombo avoided foul trouble, but the Heat going so small hurt his minutes a tad. He is still a very nice DFS play. Lucas Nogueira got out there for his first playoff minutes of his career.
The Heat were something else:
That is some center group. Most teams wouldn’t want any of those guys at their center spot. Luol Deng played all five minutes at center in overtime and that lineup was successful, too. Still, Deng is being locked down after an awesome round against the Hornets. Based on where the high-priced studs are in DFS and how awesome Draymond Green is, it’s tough to use Deng at power forward.
Joe Johnson blocked two shots in his 41 minutes after blocking four in his 2,703 minutes during the regular season. He is perhaps the biggest winner of this new small-ball fest. Justise Winslow also went from a DNP-CD to a productive 31 minutes, scoring nine points with four rebounds one assist, and one steal.
Oh and you’re playing Dwyane Wade regardless.
That’ll do it for today. If you’re looking for more breakdown of Monday’s action, there is a ton in the podcast below.
Steve Alexander and I also preview Tuesday and talk Tuesday-Wednesday DFS.
