What Heat-Raptors Game 4 may look like sans Whiteside, Valanciunas
Considering Jonas Valanciunas’ dominance in Game 2 sent Hassan Whiteside to the bench for spells as Miami coach Erik Spoelstra scrambled for answers to Toronto’s pick-and-roll riddle, it might seem logical that the Raptors center’s absence in Game 4 will prove bigger than his Heat counterpart’s vacancy.
But if we’ve learned anything from this Eastern Conference semifinals series, it’s that logic isn’t always the best predictor of a Raptors-Heat contest. Here’s what we know for sure: Valanciunas will miss the rest of the series with a sprained right ankle, and Whiteside is out at least Game 4 with a right MCL sprain.
So, here’s what we’re all left trying to figure out: Does either team gain an advantage in this exchange?
In the smallest of sample sizes, Whiteside left Saturday’s Game 3 a minute into the second quarter and Valanciunas lasted three minutes into the third, after which Miami erased a 13-point deficit before struggling Toronto tandem Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan iced the game with well-timed resurgence.
Spoelstra replaced Whiteside with veteran Udonis Haslem in the second-half starting lineup, and Dwane Casey relied on a blend of offense and defense that Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo respectively offered in Valanciunas’ stead. None of the three proved all that effective, with each returning a negative plus-minus number. In fact, the Heat’s use of Josh McRoberts as a small-ball center in some lineups proved the most useful of any experiment, resulting in a plus-eight figure in nearly 15 minutes of action.
Miami actually found similar success in short stints with McRoberts at center during the regular season, so don’t be surprised to see it again in Game 4, but mostly his presence suggests the two sides will be trying just about anything to fill the void left by two centers who were playing like All-Stars for stretches.
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The Heat’s most successful lineup during the regular season sans Whiteside and Chris Bosh, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season, was with Amar’e Stoudemire working alongside Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng. That quintet was an offensive force, scoring 118.5 points and outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions over a healthy sample size of 197 minutes. That same lineup with Whiteside instead of Stoudemire outscored opponents by 14.1 points.
Meanwhile, the Raptors consistently outscored opponents in any lineup featuring the defensive-minded Bismack Biyombo. Most of Scola’s work has been done at power forward, and lineups featuring the 36-year-old at center have produced mostly poor results. (Although, Scola with Patrick Patterson at the four and the guard trio of Lowry, DeRozan and Cory Joseph was effective in a 26-minute sample size during the regular season). All of which is why Casey might be open to playing James Johnson at the five.
Logically, it will be a chess match between Spoelstra and Casey, testing combinations of Haslem, Stoudemire and McRoberts against Scola, Biyombo and Johnson. Are the Heat better off playing offense-first bigs Stoudemire or McRoberts opposite the defense-first Biyombo? Or is it better to match defense with defense and offense with offense, pairing Haslem with Biyombo and Stoudemire or McRoberts with Scola? These are the questions Game 4 should provide some answers to going forward in this series.
For now, at least, the Raptors have the 2-1 series edge and can afford to experiment a bit more. They also have the best option available as a true center in Biyombo, so advantage Toronto, it seems.
But it’s probably best to toss logic out the window and expect some wacky lineups on both sides in Game 4. There’s got to be a Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Justise Winslow lineup lurking somewhere in the back of Spoelstra’s mind, even if that combo played only three minutes together this season.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the absence of both starting centers certainly qualifies.
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Ben Rohrbach is a contributor for Ball Don’t Lie and Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
