By BOB ROBERTS
Special to The Plain Dealer
CLEVELAND, Ohio — Enough is enough.
Favorites have won the last three renewals of the Kentucky Derby. How is a guy to pay for his all-sports, 750-channel cable television package with horses that kick back $7.80 for a two-buck wager?
Is there an American Pharoah in this year’s Run for the Roses? It’s possible, but doubtful. Triple Crown champions don’t grow on mint julep trees.
So how about a horse who is 12-1 on the morning line?
My pick to win the 142nd Derby is Brody’s Cause. Unlike many of the 19 horses he’ll face Saturday at 6:34 p.m., he’s bred to get the classic’s demanding 1 ¼ miles.
For those scoring at home, here’s how I see the top four at the finish line at Churchill Downs.
- Brody’s Cause
- Exaggerator
- Nyquist
- Creator
Railbirds can watch and wager on the Kentucky Derby at Northfield Park and Thistledown. Both tracks will open their betting windows Friday and Saturday at 10 a.m. Northfield is sweetening the Derby weekend pot with $2,000 free handicapping contests on Friday and Saturday.
Beside his mini-marathon breeding, why Brody’s Cause? He’s coming into the Derby off a solid winning performance in the April 9 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, turned in a sparkling five furlong workout (1:00 1/5) last Saturday, and has a winning team in trainer Dale Romans and jockey Luis Saez.
He’s a grinder, who will no doubt sit in the middle of the pack or perhaps near the back of the pack if the pacesetters turn on the speed in the opening half-mile. Brody’s Cause will need to find a running lane. That’s where luck and Saez’s skill will come into play.
Exaggerator scares me, big time. He won the April 9 Santa Anita Derby with a monster surge before drawing off to a 6 ¼ length laugher. But the triumph came over a sloppy track. His Delta Downs Jackpot victory was in the mud. Could he be an off-track wonder?
Nyquist is the morning-line favorite. He’s perfect in seven races and, if the Derby was run at 1 1/6 or 1 1/8 miles, I’d pick him on top in a minute. But many handicappers, including me, have questions about his ability to go the required 10 furlongs. His breeding suggests distance limitations.
Creator has the look of a horse who is hitting his best stride at the right time. He didn’t make his stakes debut until finishing third in the March 19 Rebel at Oaklawn. Four weeks later, he won the $1 million Arkansas Derby. The son of Tapit rallies from far back. If he can find the space, he should be running over rivals in the closing quarter of a mile.
For those betting the Derby with hopes of winning enough money to buy a car or a house, consider making a few trifecta and superfecta wages.
Over the past 20 years, the average trifecta payoff is $12,025 for a $2 investment. The superfecta (pick ’em 1-2-3-4) is a staggering $85,880. And that’s for a buck.
Play your phone number, play your address. Just don’t forget to play.
