Saves and Steals: Justice for Miller?
A few minor injuries have interfered with our closer tiers. For the most part, it’s nothing to worry about long term. Huston Street is out a couple weeks with an oblique injury. Zach Britton is due back any day now. David Robertson went on and returned from the bereavement list. There’s one other guy who might be hurt – we’ll get to him later. Aroldis Chapman returns soon. Will he oust the top performing reliever in baseball?
Jonathan Villar was the king of steals this week with six thefts in six attempts. Billy Burns snagged four of his own in five attempts. Dexter Fowler, Kelby Tomlinson, Alcides Escobar, and Danny Santana all stole three bags. Jose Altuve still leads the league with 10 steals in 11 attempts. Villar and Burns now rank second and third.
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Tier 1: Elite (5)
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Jansen allowed his first run of the season last Friday. The Padres already had a 4-1 lead over the Dodgers, so it didn’t matter. He had a one out save yesterday.
Nobody has pitched better than Miller. In 10 innings, he has 16 strikeouts, no walks, and four hits allowed. He didn’t have a save opportunity last week. Chapman returns to action next Monday. Given Miller’s effectiveness, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him retain the ninth inning – at least for a time. It’s not like it will hurt Chapman’s trade value if he works in a setup role, and it certainly makes Miller look more valuable.
Davis and Kimbrel had easy weeks. Davis picked up one save and three strikeouts over two innings. Kimbrel tallied two saves and three strikeouts in two appearances.
Britton has been day-to-day since last Saturday with a minor ankle injury. He took the loss in that contest. He also allowed a run on Wednesday while recording the save. He’s supposed to be available to pitch within the next couple days. Darren O’Day is the temporary closer with Brad Brach pitching the eighth inning.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (6)
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Rosenthal and Osuna had uneventful weeks. Rondon allowed his first run of the season against the Braves on Sunday. He took the loss. He pitched a clean one-two-three inning earlier in the series. His season line stands at 15.75 K/9, no walks, and a 1.13 ERA in eight innings.
I bumped Familia down within the tier because he’s pitching to contact. His stuff is still inducing a high whiff rate so there’s hope he can strikeout more than a batter per inning going forward. Through his first 13 frames, he has a meager 6.92 K/9. He picked up a save last Saturday and allowed a run on while protecting a four run lead on Monday.
Melancon saved three including two one-out saves. They don’t come any easier than that. Robertson missed a couple games last week. He still appeared three times. In three innings, he struck out four and allowed two base runners.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (6)
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Jonathan Papelbon, Washington Nationals
Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Ramos might be hurt. His fastball velocity was down over two mph in the last week. He also worked five times in six days, so it could be simple fatigue. He scuffled through two of his three appearances. If you were already thinking about trading away a surplus closer, you may want to shop Ramos.
Gregerson allowed a run while nursing a four run lead last Wednesday. His next two appearances were of the one-two-three variety. His hold on the Astros’ closer gig is firm.
Allen’s velocity continues to wander between 92 and 94 mph. He allowed another run in a loss to the Phillies on Friday. Overall, it was a positive week by Allen’s standards. He threw 2.2 innings with six strikeouts, no walks, and three hits allowed. I’m leaving him in the mid-tier since he’s a top seven closer when he’s on.
Papelbon pitched four times including an ugly three-run loss to the Royals last night. The other outings were fine. Papelbon will do this from time-to-time. It’s what happens when you depend more on pitchability than stuff.
K-Rod had a fantastic week with three saves and four strikeouts in 3.1 innings. Vizcaino wasn’t quite as good in his 3.1 innings, but he still netted two saves and a win while allowing two runs. He had five strikeouts too.
