For Justin Verlander, success starts with the fastball

It should come as no surprise that the fastball is Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander’s most important pitch. His blazing heater is what made him a standout prospect in the minors, and in his first couple seasons in the majors, Verlander was near the top of the league in fastball velocity.

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Things have changed now. The days of Verlander being in the top-10 in fastball velocity have passed. Some of that is due to the fact that every starter is suddenly averaging 95 mph these days, some of it is due to diminished stuff that comes with age.

Verlander’s fastball velocity has been slowly declining since 2009, when he averaged 95.6 mph with the pitch. Outside of a poor 2014, he’s mostly been able to compensate for the loss in velocity.

Yahoo Sports' Free MLB Game of the Day schedule. A month into the 2016, he’ll need to show he can do it again. He’ll get that opportunity during Tuesday’s Free MLB Game of the Day at Yahoo Sports. Verlander will look to get his fastball back on track against the division-rival Cleveland Indians. The contest, which starts at 6:10 p.m ET, can be streamed at Yahoo’s Sports Home, MLB index and video home.

Verlander’s velocity is down once again this season. He’s averaging just 92.4 mph on his fastball. And while fastball velocity typically starts low in April and builds as the season goes on, Verlander averaged 93.53 mph on his fastball in April 2014. He didn’t pitch in April last season due to injury, which is why 2014 is being used here.

Despite the decline, Verlander’s fastball is still showing many of the same traits that made it an effective pitch in 2015. A number of his pitch outcomes with the fastball at Brooks Baseball are similar. Hitters are swinging at the pitch at the same rate, fouling it off at the same rate and whiffing against it at the same rate.

The one major difference thus far is that Verlander has allowed a five home runs with his fastball this season. All but one of the six home runs he’s allowed has come against his fastball.

It’s certainly possible his diminished velocity has played a role in the home run increase. Perhaps Verlander’s approach isn’t as effective now that he’s missing another tick on his heater. Maybe batters are now able to catch up to his fastball and smack it over the fence more often.

More likely, though, it’s just small sample nonsense. Verlander’s home run per fly ball rate is double his career norm. Roughly 7.9 percent of all Verlander’s fly balls have left the park over his career. This season, that figure has jumped to 14.6 percent.

There’s a possibility that’s the real Verlander now, but it’s far more likely he’s just been unlucky thus far. This early in the season, that shouldn’t come as a surprise. All it takes is one of two home runs to drastically skew the numbers, and if a pitcher has a few tough starts, like Verlander has, it’s easy to see how the early numbers could get so out of whack.

Since it’s still early, all it takes is one or two strong starts for Verlander to get back to his career norms. Given that the Indians rank 24th in the majors with 21 home runs this season, Tuesday seems like as good a time as any for Verlander to get his fastball back on track.

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