Big 12 told 12 teams, title game best for league
PHOENIX — The Big 12’s best chance to reach the College Football Playoff is to expand to 12 teams and stage a conference championship game, according to research by an analytics firm hired by the league.
The numbers run by Chicago-based Navigate Research show the Big 12 has a 4-5 percent better chance of reaching the top four in the CFP by adding two teams, playing one less conference game and holding a championship game, commissioner Bob Bowlsby said Monday.
The Big 12 is one of only two Power Five leagues to be left out the CFP in its first two seasons. Baylor and TCU came close in 2014. The Pac-12, whose highest ranked team was No. 6 Stanford, was left out last season.
The new information will be formally presented to the entire league later this month. The Big 12 is in the process of deciding whether it will stay in its current figuration of 10 teams playing a round-robin nine-game conference schedule. A decision could be reached by the end of the summer.
“This will probably persuade some people one way or the other,” said Bowlsby, who is in town for Big 12 spring meetings at the annual Fiesta Summit.
The rest of the Big 12’s officials, including school presidents who will ultimately make the decision, will meet in Dallas from May 31 to June 3.
From 1996 to 2010, the Big 12 had those dozen members split into two six-team divisions. For those 15 years, the league staged a championship game. In six of those games — 40 percent of the time — the point-spread underdog covered or won outright.
Judging by informal comments with Big 12 members, the league is split on what to do. Oklahoma president David Boren is an expansion advocate, as is Kansas State coach Bill Snyder. Texas’ stance isn’t known.
“You name a scenario, they modeled it,” Bowlsby said of Navigate, a firm that has the NFL, Arizona State, Ohio State and Major League Soccer as clients. “They ran 40,000 simulations.”
Up for debate is whether the league would overhaul itself based on a 5 percent better chance of getting to the playoff. A “13th data point” made a difference in the Big 12 being left out in 2014, according to Jeff Long, the former chairman of the CFP Selection Committee. The reference was to the other four Power Five leagues playing a league championship game.
“If we do nothing, we’ll fall behind the SEC and the Big Ten in terms of [revenue],” Bowlsby said. “We may be every bit as competitive as we are today, but we’ll fall behind financially.”
Bowlsby previously told CBS Sports that, if the league stands pat, it will be “$20 million [per school]” behind the SEC and Big Ten in 12 years.
Navigate’s numbers were first reported by the Dallas Morning News.
The Big 12 may soon be going through some changes. (USATSI)
