BDL’s 2015-16 NBA Playoff Previews: Cavaliers vs. Hawks
How They Got Here
• Cleveland: The Cavaliers arguably looked more like a fully fledged No. 1 seed in the first round against the Detroit Pistons than they did at any point during the regular season. After an up-and-down 57-win campaign in which the conference’s best team rarely looked on the level of the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, the Cavs re-affirmed their postseason bona fides in a no-nonsense sweep of the Detroit Pistons. It was a series in which several close games did not challenge the favorite’s clear superiority, and Cleveland looks stronger now than they did when they began the playoffs.
Game 1 was about as good as a five-point win against a heavy underdog can be, with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love combining for 80 points and the Pistons getting all sorts of contributions before failing to execute in crunch time. LeBron and Kyrie were the stars, but Love stood out for looking like an essential piece of the offense, a bit of a rarity for the Cavs when all three played this season. Game 2 was a lot more one-sided — the Cavs matched what was then the playoff record for three-pointers made with 20 and coasted to a 107-90 win. The first home playoff game in Detroit since 2009 was much closer but ended with Irving < a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/kyrie-irving-s-dagger-puts-cavs-up-3-0-and-pistons-on-the-brink-033959721.html">coming up big down the stretch. Game 4 followed a similar script in a 100-98 win, although Reggie Jackson thought his team should have at least forced overtime after contact on his shot attempt at the buzzer. Alas, the Pistons’ fairly solid series will mostly be remembered for 19-year-old rookie Stanley Johnson’s insistence that he was in LeBron’s head.
The biggest positive of the series wasn’t that the Cavs dominated every contest, because they definitely did not. It was that they looked very comfortable against a less talented team giving them what appeared to be its best shot and managed to find offensive balance between their three stars. Every player carried out his role, everyone seemed happy to do it, and every game ended in a Cleveland win.
• Atlanta: The Hawks entered the playoffs with the league’s best per-possession defense since December 15 and won four of six matchups with the Boston Celtics largely because of that unit’s overall excellence. The opener set a few trends for the series — the Celtics offense couldn’t do anything in the first half before getting it together later, the Hawks went through their own lengthy periods of offensive instability, and the Celtics sorely lacked a second creator alongside Isaiah Thomas when they really needed one. That last issue was a relatively new one here, though, because Avery Bradley went down in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury that ended his season. His absence helped contribute to a downturn for the Celtics and a 102-101 win for the Hawks.
Game 2 made it look like the Hawks were headed for an overwhelming series win — they got out to a 24-3 lead halfway through the first quarter and held the Celtics to just 72 points. However, the Celtics took Game 3 behind 42 points from Thomas and came back from 16 down in Game 4 to offset 45 points from Paul Millsap. Those wins were very much the exceptions to the rule, though, because the Hawks clobbered the Celtics in Game 5 despite scoring only 19 points in the first 18 minutes and cruised in the clinching Game 6 win before the Celtics mounted a way-too-late charge to avoid an outright blowout.
Head to Head
These teams matched up three times this season, although quirks of the schedule put one in November and two in April. It would normally be easy to disregard all three for happening so early and so late, especially given that the Cavs rested players often at the end of the season. But they are telling, especially in the wake of Cleveland’s sweep of Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals last spring.
The Cavs won all three, and only the single game at Philips Arena was especially close. The November 21 came well before Kyrie Irving’s midseason return from injury and saw Kevin Love finish with a team-high 25 in a comfortable 109-107 win. The Cavs led by 17 in the second quarter, a period in which Mike Budenholzer was ejected for bumping referee Ben Taylor following a technical foul.
The second matchup came more than four months later on April 2 in Atlanta. The Cavs led by 14 at the half but blew the lead to force overtime, where they bounced back to win 110-108. LeBron had 29 to balance out a terrible 5-of-23 shooting performance for Irving. The third and final matchup nine days later looked more like the first meeting — the Cavs won 109-94 to clinch the top seed in the East. LeBron was terrific with a hyper-efficient 34 points on 13-of-16 from the field.
The biggest takeaway is that the Cavaliers to have a huge advantage in this matchup for as long as they take the Hawks seriously. They’ve proven their superiority two years in a row and enter this series as big favorites to advance.
Likely Starting Lineups
You have probably heard of most of the Cleveland Cavaliers — they are quite famous. LeBron James is still one of the two or three best players in the world, and it’s fair to say that he’s in the best position to dominate the postseason with Stephen Curry sidelined due to injury and Kawhi Leonard eternally spoken of in the context of his team’s success. He’ll do everything in this series and probably do it well.
That Cavs’ ceiling is typically tied to the play of co-stars Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, and in that case they should feel pretty good about their chances to play for a title. Love is still more spot-up shooter than power forward, but he was very good against the Pistons and shot 39 percent from deep. Irving gets to be the focus of the offense more often and can go for 30 or 40 with little provocation. J.R. Smith is a streaky source of three-point shooting in the starting lineup and can be the team’s leading scorer if he gets hot. He can also shoot the team out of games.
Timofey Mozgov started at center for most of the year, but that became a ceremonial designation over time. Tristan Thompson has taken over in the postseason and brings a willingness to crash the glass and defend. He does not require the ball to be effective, which is important on a team where so many players do.
The bench is solid. Channing Frye brings the rare combination of outside shooting and interior defense, Iman Shumpert adds defense and occasional shooting, and Matthew Dellavedova just plays hard and never intends to injure someone (that’s just who he is!). Vampire small forward Richard Jefferson could also be a factor in the rotation if matchups work out that way.
The Hawks are another set of known quantities. Al Horford is one of the league’s most versatile centers and a potential matchup problem for Thompson. Paul Millsap has long been known as a productive combo forward, but he’s now widely viewed as an elite defender. Kyle Korver is still a top-level outside shooter and an underrated contributor in other aspects, and Jeff Teague runs the offense as a high-level score-first point guard. The somewhat unknown starter is Kent Bazemore, an athletic 3-and-D wing who should earn a significant raise as an unrestricted free agent this summer. He was terrific against the Celtics and will get the primary defensive assignment on James.
The bench begins with Dennis Schröder, a playmaking point guard whose decision-making doesn’t exactly scream “dependability.” Mike Scott and Thabo Sefolosha will see significant time in the efforts to check LeBron and other forwards. Sefolosha should get the bulk of those minutes as the superior defender.
Key Matchups
• LeBron James vs. Kent Bazemore: I mean, jeez, I felt a mismatch just typing that. In neutral terms, there is no possible way that James will lose this matchup. He’s the most talented player of his generation, and the man tasked him with guarding him is a 26-year-old role player just coming into his own as a high-level NBA contributor.
The task for Bazemore (and anyone else who takes on this responsibility) will be to slow LeBron enough that he gets forced into less-than-ideal situations like consistent perimeter jumpers and lots of one-on-one possessions. If James is pushed away from his role as all-encompassing playmaker, the Cavs could also be drawn into the sort of offensive confusion that inspired all those vague social media posts throughout this season.
• The Hawks’ defense vs. transition: Atlanta’s defense was terrific against Boston and has been for several months, but defending Cleveland is a unique challenge not many teams can accomplish. They key will be get back in transition and slow the game down, because the Hawks will have little hope if they’re forced to run with the Cavs. As we’ve noted elsewhere, forcing LeBron and everyone else into scoring in the halfcourt is also the most likely way to get the Cavs to lose confidence in each other and submarine their own strengths.
• LeBron vs. Kevin vs. Kyrie: It would take a lot for the Cavaliers to lose this series — they’re easily the more talented team and hold a number of matchup advantages. They’re going to have to make a number of errors, and some of those may end up being an indirect result of the Hawks’ play. Cleveland played with cohesiveness against Detroit, but this is still a team that looked rather unhappy to play together for large portions of the regular season. Their three stars will need to find the correct balance to keep the Cavs looking like title contenders and not just the best team in the East.
How the Cavaliers Could Win: They take advantage of transition opportunities. LeBron dominates the matchup with Bazemore and Sefolosha. Love and Irving get enough opportunities to stay involved. Thompson neutralizes Horford. J.R. Smith shoots extremely well in a game or two. No one spends too much time crafting complicated Instagram messages.
How the Hawks Could Win: LeBron, Kevin, and Kyrie get so upset at each other that one or two of them refuse to play. Bazemore and Sefolosha force LeBron to the perimeter as often as possible. The defense excels and makes it a series played in the half-court. J.R. Smith shoots the Cavs out of several games. LeBron accidentally wears pants that are a size too small and can’t get out of them in time for tipoff.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 6 out of 10. The Cavs can be really fun when they’re doing everything right, but there’s something unexciting about the air of inevitability set to follow them through every playoff series. The Hawks could end up as their sternest test before the NBA Finals, but that says much more about the East than Atlanta’s ability to compete in this matchup. This could be a series that gets more entertaining the more one-sided it is, because Atlanta will probably only seem in it if they manage to make things ugly.
Prediction: Cavs in 5.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
